Portugal's politics and elections

[VPH]

Fairly minor, but what's up with that PPM seat on Corvo?

PPM is the only party whose regional leader/top candidate is from Corvo, and they focus much of their campaigning there to get him elected.

My grandpa who has a friend from Corvo says it's because a good number of the descendants of the last king live there.

[VPH]

I used to know a site where you could see the results of the 2015 election by freguesia in an interactive map. I cannot seem to find it though...

[VPH]

I used to know a site where you could see the results of the 2015 election by freguesia in an interactive map. I cannot seem to find it though...

That would be awesome. Do you remember if the site was from a newspaper or something? I can help find it.

I am pretty sure it was! I remember looking at results for the villages my grandparents and parents are from but I forgot to bookmark it...

[VPH]

I used to know a site where you could see the results of the 2015 election by freguesia in an interactive map. I cannot seem to find it though...

That would be awesome. Do you remember if the site was from a newspaper or something? I can help find it.

I am pretty sure it was! I remember looking at results for the villages my grandparents and parents are from but I forgot to bookmark it...

Hmmm... Is this it?
http://observador.pt/interativo/legislativas-ao-segundo/#/

YES! Thank you!

[VPH]

Another update on the fall local elections:

Bernardino Soares (CDU), mayor of Loures (Lisbon suburb with more 200.000 inhabitants), announced he will run for a second term.



He surprised many people in 2013 by forming a coalition with the PSD in Loures city hall.

How did that work out!? Wow!

[VPH]

Comparing Costa to Trump strikes me as comical lol.

[VPH]

Update on the local elections:

CDS/PPM/MPT coalition in Lisbon is presented and has a new name: New Lisbon



The CDS/PPM/MPT coalition led by Assunção Cristas, presented today their new image and name for the fall election campaign. The coalition will be named "New Lisbon" which will appear on  ballot papers. On campaign posters the coalition will be also branded "For our Lisbon". But things aren't looking good for Cristas. Although there aren't public polls currently, the latest private polling done for the PS, PSD and CDS show Cristas in 3rd place and well bellow the PSD, who haven't even started campaigning.

I love how the PPM still attaches itself to tickets.

[VPH]

Expresso and SIC TV unveiled a weird and contradictory poll about the government attitude in the Pedrógão disaster and in the Tancos robbery:

Q1: Should the Interior Minister, Constança Urbano de Sousa, have resigned after the Pedrógão disaster:

33.3% Yes
49.7% No
17.0% Don't Know

Q2: Should the Defence Minister, Azeredo Lopes, have resigned after the Tancos base robbery:

36.9% Yes
43.0% No
20.1% Don't Know

Q3: Is the government more weak after these two events?

55.2% Yes
34.8% No
10.0% Don't Know

Q4: Should António Costa reshuffle the government?

52.4% Yes
26.6% No
21.0% Don't Know

Poll conducted between 10 and 12 July by Eurosondagem. Polled 1,001 voters. MoE of 3.10%.

According to this poll, the electorate believes the government is more weak and fragile and that the PM should reshuffle the government after these two events. At the same time, the 2 main ministers responsible for the response for these two event shouldn't resign. Weird.

What a strange, indecisive poll.

[VPH]

Today, two controversies surrounding local election candidates:

First, Assunção Cristas, CDS leader and candidate for Lisbon. Ms Cristas posted this tweet yesterday:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This tweet created a very bad reaction on twitter apparently. The tweet has more than 100 comments and most of them are people reminding Ms Cristas that FCPorto is also in the CL and that the teams represent Portugal and not Lisbon. Some even said Cristas has lost the FCPorto voters support.

As a Benfica fan, this is hilarious

[VPH]

Wait, what's the BE hotspot in central Portugal?

[VPH]

How is Andre Venturas polling in his race?

[VPH]

Cannot say thank you enough for posting this! I don't get time to scour all the news sources, so having the polls in one place is fantastic. I found it interesting to see PS so close in Sao Joao de Madeira. Always thought of that place as right-leaning. I have some family there who talks about it that way.

[VPH]

Some of these local results are just odd. Areas that were 60% PaF in the legislative elections going 60% PS at the local level. I'd attribute it mostly to the candidates, but it seems odd nonetheless.

[VPH]

Aximage poll on governmental policies:

Q1: What should be the top priority for the government?

55.5% Deficit reduction
36.7% Increase wages, pensions
  5.4% Both
  2.4% Undecided

Q2: Which governing party is responsible for the minimum wage increase?

39.8% CDU
27.2% BE
15.7% PS
  7.1% BE/CDU
  5.3% All three
  4.8% No opinion

Q3: Which governing party is responsible for the increase on pensions?

40.4% CDU
21.5% BE
18.0% PS
  8.9% BE/CDU
  7.1% All three
  4.2% No opinion

Q3: Which governing party is responsible for the reduction of the IRS surcharge?

35.3% PS
28.8% BE
15.1% CDU
12.6% No opinion
  5.8% All three
  5.4% BE/CDU

Poll conducted between 14 and 17 October. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%

Goodness, popular policies are being tied to the CDU. I find that so strange...

[VPH]

Liberal Initiative (Iniciativa Liberal) is officially a party:


Liberal Initiative (IL) logo.

The Liberal Initiative has become the 22nd registered party in Portugal. The Constitutional Court has accepted their signatures and has approved their party structure. The party has a classical liberal and centrist ideology, that is similar to C's in Spain or LREM in France. The party is already a member of ALDE (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party)

The party will contest the 2019 EU and General elections, and they're aiming to win 3 or 4 seats in the general elections. But the odds are quite hard for them. Since 1999, only two new parties, BE and PAN, have elected MPs. All of the others have failed that goal.

Isn't there a decent faction of PSD with similar views?

[VPH]

Because of Rio's more centrist positioning, do you foresee greater CDS strength?

[VPH]

Parliament approved new law that allows sex change by age 16 without medical report:

The new gender identity law, which lowers the age to change gender on the ID Card and ends with the obligation to submit a medical report to do so, was approved this Friday morning. PS, BE, PEV, PAN and 1 PSD MP voted in favour. PSD and CDS voted against. PCP abstained.

Overall numbers:

109 In favour (PS, BE, PAN, PEV, 1 PSD MP)
106 Against (PSD, CDS)
  15 Abstain (PCP)

Which PSD MP voted for it?

[VPH]

Euthanasia legalization will be voted on 29 May:

MPs will vote to legalize, or not, euthanasia practices in Portugal. At the request of CDS, the vote will be member by member, not by party groups. At the moment, these are the party standings for the crucial vote:

PSD - Freedom of vote (each MP can vote by their own conscience)
PS - Freedom of vote (each MP can vote by their own conscience)
BE - In Favour
CDS - Against
PCP - Undecided
PEV - In Favour
PAN - In Favour

Because of this vote, religious communities in Portugal - Islamic, Jewish, Buddhists, Hindu, Bahia, Catholic, Protestant, Evangelic and Adventists - all signed a common document stating their opposition to the legalization of euthanasia. The document will be sent to the President of the Republic, which will have to decide if he signs in the law, vetoes it or sends it to the Constitutional Court, if it passes in Parliament, of course.

Jeez, I hadn't even seen this on the news. Seems like all they've been talking about is the insane mess that Sporting has become.

[VPH]

Here's hoping the euthanasia bill fails. Would love to see some principled members of PS vote against it.

[VPH]

Santana Lopes's new party will be called "Alliance": (Aliança in Portuguese)


Logo of Santana's new party.

Santana Lopes has chosen a name for his new party. The party will be called "Alliance", its main colour will be blue, and according to him, and reported by Expresso newspaper, the party will be a personalistic, supportive and liberal party. On values it will a conservative party and it will be a pró-European party, but with criticisms, and liberal on the NHS and Social Security (SS). He also proposes lowering taxes and a balance budget. The main policies, and goals, of Santana's new party are almost a copy paste of the PSD, although on the NHS and SS, Santana seems to be more to the right than the PSD. In the next few weeks, Santana will start to collect signatures to legalize his party, as it is needed 7,500 legal signatures to register a party in Portugal.

The Alliance, or Santana Lopes himself, defends also changes in the Portuguese political system. He proposes the creation of a Senate, making the Assembly of the Republic a bicameral assembly, and the introduction of FPTP to elect MPs balanced with a national constituency to create proportionality. Before the creation of his new party, Santana made contacts with other smaller parties, like the Liberal Initiative or Democracy XXI (which is still in formation also), but both refused to merge with him.

With Santana's new party, the number of political parties in Portugal will increase to 23, from the current 22 (already counting Democracy XXI).

Do you think realistically this will gain any traction? It seems a little redundant and too similar to CDS-PP and PSD to have its niche. Maybe the reformism element of it lets the party stand out, but I struggle to see this doing well.

[VPH]

Do you think realistically this will gain any traction? It seems a little redundant and too similar to CDS-PP and PSD to have its niche. Maybe the reformism element of it lets the party stand out, but I struggle to see this doing well.

At first, the party could have a similar fate like all the parties that wanted, in the past, to "shake up the system" had, meaning, zero success. The reaction from the PSD about his departure was very negative and there isn't a big wave of PSD members willing to support Santana. Nonetheless, the PSD is currently very, very divided towards Rui Rio and Santana's party could be a way for Rio's opposition, within the PSD, to weaken and attack him. Santana's idea is to recreate in Portugal what Macron did in France and Rivera/Iglesias did in Spain, but the problem is that Santana Lopes is an old figure in Portugal, ridiculed by some and heavily rejected by the electorate, as one poll says that 80% would never support him. So, my view, like you VPH, is that Santana may crash in a wall. But we have to wait for new polling to see how much traction he's having.

Keep in mind also that during 2014 and early 2015, Livre and PDR, also new parties at the time, were polling around 3% and 5% respectively, and ended with 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively, in the 2015 elections. The element of novelty will fade as time passes, and that means that unless Santana offers something new and different from the PSD and CDS, he could poll very badly.

Maybe they do alright in European Parliament elections and then not in any normal elections, kinda like MPT.

[VPH]

3 of the 6 European United Left-Nordic Green Left MEPs who voted against punishing #Hungary are Portuguese. All three (João FERREIRA,  João PIMENTA LOPES, and Miguel VIEGAS) are members of the Portuguese Communist Party and rank quite low on loyalty to their political group. (679, 680, 685) Wonder why they voted this way.

[VPH]

After being ignored by everybody in the PSD, André Ventura will leave the PSD and form a new social conservative party:


André Ventura in a PSD rally for the 2017 local elections.

After his campaign to remove Rui Rio from the PSD leadership failed, no major PSD figures nor any PSD local structure wanted to be associated with him or his campaign, André Ventura is now leaving the PSD. The still councillor from Loures wants to form a new party called "Enough!" and its main policies will be forbiding same sex marriages, introducing life sentences and implementing chemical castration of pedophiles. It will also be, according to him, a full liberal party in terms of economics.

This combined with Santana Lopes' new party is pretty hilarious. The right looks a bit in disarray due to Rui Rio. Neither one of my grandfathers likes Rio, and my maternal grandfather (who votes at the consulate) says he will back Santana Lopes' party if it gains traction.

[VPH]

I feel like I saw something on the news in passing about the ethics committee in Parliament not really dealing with complaints and potential conflicts of interest

[VPH]

I would have expected CDU to do best with those without high school! I kind of associate them with older, rural folks in the Alentejo.