Downstate Illinois in 2020

[muon2]

It's a district they should have drawn in 2011, but Pelosi wanted to gamble on getting a 13-5 delegation from IL. The result is that the delegation is only 10-8 today. An 11-7 would have been a gimme, just by drawing the district you did, but the DCCC overplayed the 2008 Obama factor in crafting the districts.

[muon2]

The Independent Maps group recently announced that it had over 300k signatures towards its goal of 600k by spring. A minimum of 290k valid signatures are needed to get on the ballot in Nov 2016.

[muon2]

The Independent Maps group recently announced that it had over 300k signatures towards its goal of 600k by spring. A minimum of 290k valid signatures are needed to get on the ballot in Nov 2016.

I will vote against. It must be done at once, as the host of Republican-controlled states don't seem to be easing on this any time soon. Illinois must be a buffer against maps like North Carolina.

Ohio has a measure on the ballot and on a percentage basis from the statewide average they are more tilted to the Pubs than NC.

[muon2]

The Independent Maps group recently announced that it had over 300k signatures towards its goal of 600k by spring. A minimum of 290k valid signatures are needed to get on the ballot in Nov 2016.

I will vote against. It must be done at once, as the host of Republican-controlled states don't seem to be easing on this any time soon. Illinois must be a buffer against maps like North Carolina.

Ohio has a measure on the ballot and on a percentage basis from the statewide average they are more tilted to the Pubs than NC.

Which ballot measure does not apply in Ohio to Congressional Districts, right (just state legislative seats)? But yes, Ohio going non partisan in exchange for Illinois going non partisan in redistricting, would be a fair trade.

Correct. Neither initiative involves congressional districts. Neither constitution addresses congressional districts, which makes sense since they are really not part of the charter of how to run the state.

[muon2]

The Illinois gerrymander isn't really all that strong.    The main purpose of it is the two swing seats in the south (which Republicans currently hold both...).

What else is there?   The 3rd or 17th??   Possibly, but really I doubt it'd change much with an independent commission.    It's not like they'd create a Republican gerrymander and eliminate those area's Dem voters.

The Ohio map has a lot more to go after, you can make four Dem seats in the Northeast that aren't that crazy looking, a Toledo seat, a Cinninatti seat.   Maybe a competitive Dayton seat.    It certainly wouldn't be a 12-4 map anymore.

The most likely neutral CD map in OH is 9-7 or 10-6 Pub, but it can go to 8-8 if competitiveness is pushed as a criteria. The Pub skew is due to the requirement of a black district in NE OH. So it represents a shift of 2 or 3 seats from the current map.

Keep in mind that the Dems gambled and lost on a 13-5 map, but a safe 12-6 could have been drawn instead. A neutral 10-8 Dem map represents a 2 seat shift from what they should have drawn and does balance OH.

In any case the most effective gerrymanders are at the state legislative level and that's what the amendments would address.