Nova Scotia Election, 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

Hash is determined to force me out of my job

[DC Al Fine]

Dexter is campaigning in my riding today.

[DC Al Fine]

Daily tracking

Liberal: 55% (-1)
NDP: 28% (+1)
PC: 16% (+1)

NDP have made up 4 points in the past few days. It would be hilarious if they made up more ground managed to squeak out a minority.

[lilTommy]

Daily tracking

Liberal: 55% (-1)
NDP: 28% (+1)
PC: 16% (+1)

NDP have made up 4 points in the past few days. It would be hilarious if they made up more ground managed to squeak out a minority.

The beginnings of a BC-esque result? At what point did the BCLiberals start to catch up to the BCNDP? (even thought most polling didn't really catch on from what i remember)

[RogueBeaver]

Liberals should win a majority with those numbers assuming the polls aren't blatantly off like Alberta or BC. NDP would be reduced to their urban base and the Tories would try and scrounge half a dozen rural seats.

Still nearly 3 weeks to go. Our assumption should be a Dipper win until the tally says otherwise.

Also, time for the Grits to go nuclear since we're seeing yet another late incumbent surge.

[RogueBeaver]

Daily tracking

Liberal: 55% (-1)
NDP: 28% (+1)
PC: 16% (+1)

NDP have made up 4 points in the past few days. It would be hilarious if they made up more ground managed to squeak out a minority.

The beginnings of a BC-esque result? At what point did the BCLiberals start to catch up to the BCNDP? (even thought most polling didn't really catch on from what i remember)

A couple of weeks out. In Angus-Reid they went from a 17 point lead a month out to a 7 point lead 2 weeks out, final AR had a 45-36 NDP win. This sort of thing happened in polling's infancy too: in '57 CIPO's final poll showed a 6-point LPC lead (40-34) but their final projection was 48-34 for some reason. The more things change, etc.

[DC Al Fine]

Daily tracking

Liberal: 55% (-1)
NDP: 28% (+1)
PC: 16% (+1)

NDP have made up 4 points in the past few days. It would be hilarious if they made up more ground managed to squeak out a minority.

The beginnings of a BC-esque result? At what point did the BCLiberals start to catch up to the BCNDP? (even thought most polling didn't really catch on from what i remember)

The Liberals bottomed out with 3 weeks left in the campaign. You're right though, even though they made up ground during the campaign, there was still roughly a 6% swing between the last polls and the election result.

A 6% swing on the latest poll would still give a 49-34 split. The only bright spot for the NDP right now is that they could probably lose by 5% and still win the seat count.

[Hatman 🍁]

At what point did the BCLiberals start to catch up to the BCNDP?

Election Day

[Hash]

Guys, the BC NDP weren't leading by 27 points 6 days out from the election. They were leading consistently, but by single digits. Not nearly 30 points. Polls might be wrong, but again if they blow a 25-30 point lead for one party, then they should be fed to the Venetian lion.

[Smid]

From what I read in this thread, the Liberals did very well in last week's debate. They subsequently rocketed up in the tracking poll, and this trend continued as the sample contained more and more post-debate respondents. Now we are seeing some subsidence in the Liberal vote. Perhaps the Liberal boost was strongest immediately following the debate and now we're seeing it fall back to where it was before? In short, the gain in NDP vote may have little to do with anything happening now and more to do with methodology and previous performance by the Liberals? Thoughts, anyone?

[Hatman 🍁]

Abacus has done a poll:

Lib: 48
NDP: 26
PC: 25
Grn: 1

Cape Breton
Lib: 49
PC: 27
NDP: 24


Halifax
Lib: 44
NDP: 31
PC: 25

North
Lib: 51
NDP: 25
PC: 23

South Shore / Annapolis Valley
Lib: 52
PC: 24
NDP: 23

[DC Al Fine]

From what I read in this thread, the Liberals did very well in last week's debate. They subsequently rocketed up in the tracking poll, and this trend continued as the sample contained more and more post-debate respondents. Now we are seeing some subsidence in the Liberal vote. Perhaps the Liberal boost was strongest immediately following the debate and now we're seeing it fall back to where it was before? In short, the gain in NDP vote may have little to do with anything happening now and more to do with methodology and previous performance by the Liberals? Thoughts, anyone?

Here are the rolling polls.



The debate was on September 25th. There was a definite swing towards the Liberals in the days following the debate but the most recent poll still contains a hefty chunk of post-debate responses. We'll have to wait and see if Liberal support is really sagging or if it's just statistical noise.

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus has done a poll:

Lib: 48
NDP: 26
PC: 25
Grn: 1

Cape Breton
Lib: 49
PC: 27
NDP: 24


Halifax
Lib: 44
NDP: 31
PC: 25

North
Lib: 51
NDP: 25
PC: 23

South Shore / Annapolis Valley
Lib: 52
PC: 24
NDP: 23

Yay, we're not totally f[inks]ed

What sort of seat results does this render Hatman?

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll have to alter my model for regional subsamples.

[Hatman 🍁]

CRA daily tracker

Lib 54 (-1)
NDP 27 (-1)
PC 17 (+1)
Grn 2 (n/c)

[Hatman 🍁]

Abacus daily tracker

Lib: 48 (n/c)
NDP: 29 (+3)
PC: 22 (-3)
Grn: 1 (n/c)

Undecided: 32

CB
Lib 43 (-6)
PC 29 (+4)
NDP 28 (+2)

Hfx
Lib 42 (-2)
NDP 35 (+4)
PC 22  (-3)

North
Lib 54 (+3)
NDP 24 (-1)
PC 22 (-1)

West
Lib 55 (+3)
NDP 25 (+2)
PC 20 (-4)

[You kip if you want to...]

Imagine the polls were wrong again though...

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm thinking not, due to the different dynamics going on. Only thing that might make the polls wrong are the large number of undecideds. If they break NDP heavily, we could see ourselves with a close election.

[Citizen Hats]

Imagine the polls were wrong again though...

People aren't afraid of the Nova Scotia Liberals in the same way that they fear handing power to the Wildrose Alliance or the BCNDP, which makes [vigorously knocking on wood] a voting-booth swing unlikely

[MaxQue]

Imagine the polls were wrong again though...

People aren't afraid of the Nova Scotia Liberals in the same way that they fear handing power to the Wildrose Alliance or the BCNDP, which makes [vigorously knocking on wood] a voting-booth swing unlikely

Yes, but I still think NDP will do better than their polling. All elections in Canada since a couple of years saw the undecideds heavily breaking for the incumbent.

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories have made up 6 points in a week. All shall bow before our unstoppable momentum!!!

[RogueBeaver]

NDP minority? You'd think after the fourth or fifth time supposed prohibitive frontrunners would know that you have to go nuclear in the final week.

[minionofmidas]

Just time to repeat that swing till polling day. Lib 38, NDP 34, Con 26... what kind of result does that give?

[DC Al Fine]

Just time to repeat that swing till polling day. Lib 38, NDP 34, Con 26... what kind of result does that give?

NDP minority

[minionofmidas]

Just time to repeat that swing till polling day. Lib 38, NDP 34, Con 26... what kind of result does that give?

NDP minority

Meh, how much does it take for an NDP majority?