Astatine
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,880
Political Matrix
E: -0.72, S: -5.90
|
 |
« on: July 01, 2020, 01:23:40 PM » |
|
AR, IN, KS, NE (at large + Districts 1 & 3), OK, TN, UT
MO and AK were tough calls.
Considering current polling in MO, I wouldn't call it safe at this point. In the 538 average, Trump is leading by 2.5 points there and although the most recent poll with Biden +2 is an internal and seems to be an outlier, the few other recent polls (one of them a Republican internal) were within single digits. Taking Trump's current standing in PV polling into account, Likely R might be the most proper call. Likely R bordering Safe R, but not safe as of now.
AK lacks polls in general and is definitely weird in its voting behavior, therefore with caution I rank it as Likely R.
Had UT as Safe R bordering Likely R, don't see Trump overcoming the state's Republican tilt overall.
|
Poll
