Who will win in Iowa?

[The Other Castro]

Iowa was never supposed to be competitive at all, even assuming a good GOP year.  So the fact that a recovering Braley campaign is starting to build a lead isn't really that surprising.  My hunch is that Braley will win, but the building GOP wave might be enough to sweep Ernst into office.

We've explained so many times now that there is NOT a "building GOP wave;" that Democrats are holding their own in the House races and poised to pick up some governorships, and the only reason for a big Senate flip is because we are seeing a reversion to the mean from the major Democratic gains in 2008. What signals are there of a huge GOP wave? Because Republicans picking up seats in heavily red states isn't a GOP wave; that's a return to normalcy. In a GOP wave, Walker, Snyder, Deal, and Brownback would be safe, LePage would be doing better, and Democrats wouldn't stand a chance in the Kentucky, Georgia, or Kansas Senate races (or Arkansas/Louisiana to be honest, where they are currently at a disadvantage but still definitely in the race).

See the links below for further clarification:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198394.msg4293061#msg4293061
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198394.msg4293083#msg4293083
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198394.msg4293276#msg4293276
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198394.msg4293398#msg4293398
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198210.msg4288563#msg4288563
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198210.msg4288589#msg4288589
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198242.msg4289193#msg4289193

I really don't feel like explaining this again, and I'm sure a lot of the other posters who have been saying the same thing feel the same way.

And, yet, the wave still builds.  But I don't need to cite seven threads to know that.

I'm going to throw this out here--based on the fact that Brownback, Corbett, and Snyder are in re-election trouble, a Democratic Wave is building.

Discuss.

We'll see in November, right?

There wouldn't really be much of a point for this forum if we did that. As for the wave, Pennsylvania and Michigan generally have a blueish (atlas red) hue nationally so I think its more that these races are being treated individually without people thinking of Obama and Congress. Brownback is the anomaly because he's just that bad of a Governor

[The Other Castro]

Obviously Braley (sane).