Axiom Strategies Swing Counties September 2016

[KingSweden]

Interesting that Trump's below many of his post-Comey high marks, but this is before the 911 pneumonia thing. Definitely worth tracking counties like this

[KingSweden]

That's a really good lead in Door County.

That's typically pretty swingy Green Bay Area, yes?

[KingSweden]

Chester would probably be a better county for PA.

Agreed. Those #s would be telling

[KingSweden]

That's a really good lead in Door County.

Obama only won Door by 7 in 2012. If Clinton is up 9...

Still, of all the Wisconsin counties to poll, you pick Door? Why not Racine or Outagamie?

Because Door County is a state PVI bellwether county.  Racine and Outagamie are about 2 points more Republican than the state.

In fact, every single one of the counties they chose except Hillsborough, FL and Hamilton, OH are PVI bellwethers in their states with state PVIs less than D/R+1.   And Hillsborough and Hamilton are national PVI bellwethers, so they should tell us something about the state of the national race.

They picked good counties.

So a very tight race. Interesting these showed trend towards C , then, considering dynamics of last few weeks