California

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2004 results are the best possible for the GOP. The latino vote in california will have no problems voting for Obama and will give him at least Kerry numbers.

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the votes are there to make it close. despite what some of you may think, a good part of the latino voters are favorable to McCain partly because of his stance on illegal immigration. these latinos came out in big numbers for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and again came out in big numbers for Hillary Clinton this year. many of these latino voters are not satisified with Obama and because of the illegal immigration, could very well vote for McCain. McCain is also somewhat popular with some actors and actresses in Hollywood, atleast compared to Bush,  which sometiimes plays a big part of the California vote.

California can and is in play. But, many of you do not agree.

Fine go ahead and spend money here, I am not complaining. Also who hollywood is voting for means s*** to voters. And you think latinos only vote on illegal immigration? You have no idea what you are talking about. Mccain will do well with latinos in Arizona and perhaps texas but not california. It really is LA that kills all hope for republicans. Those latinos have consistently come out to support the democrats and there is no reason why it will not continue this year. They preferred Clinton to Obama but that does not mean they will not vote for the guy.

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I don't really buy this claim that Bush reached all the ceilings in all the Democratic states.  Bush was reelected by record low numbers remember, that's definitely not the best a Republican can do, painful as that may be to Democrats.  And what I really don't understand is the claim that McCain can't improve on Bush's numbers among hispanics.  The last I heard, Bush kept his immigration opinions pretty close to the chest in 2004 and McCain is very openly pro-open borders.  Not to mention we saw the extreme distaste hispanics have for Obama in the primaries.  My thinking is that McCain will do very well among hispanics, possibly even winning them.

Is this all based off fantasy? Do you personally see hispanics cheering on Mccain. Like I said before just because latinos preferred Clinton does not mean they will not vote for Obama. Turnout will be lower and the PV margin will be too but Bush heavily overperformed with hispanics in 04. The reason why Bush did not win in a landslide was because the anti-war areas gave a good margin to Kerry. Bush really connected with hispanic voters which Mccain is going to have to prove he can do. He has done it in his homestate but can he do it all over the country? He will have to in NV,CO and NM but he will not do it in CA just because of money. Oh if you still dont think Bush did well with hispanics in CA, just compare 2000 and 2004 numbers for hispanic majority districts.

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Seriously though -- both sides have their share of unrealistic prognosticators.  And that's true here on the forum and elsewhere.  Some knucklehead on MSNBC was talking about Obama possibly winning Georgia today.  And a couple days ago, Fox had some Einstein predicting a McCain surprise in Connecticut.

Honestly some of these people do not know what they are talking about. They do not understand Obama is not the candidate to swing southern whites to the democrats. Also they are hyping up these unregistered blacks too much. They may provide a couple points swing throughout the south but I doubt it will be anything more than that. I think these people also tend to live in the past and judge how a state will vote more on past performance than demographics, which I feel is the best way to prognosticate.

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I don't really buy this claim that Bush reached all the ceilings in all the Democratic states.  Bush was reelected by record low numbers remember, that's definitely not the best a Republican can do, painful as that may be to Democrats.  And what I really don't understand is the claim that McCain can't improve on Bush's numbers among hispanics.  The last I heard, Bush kept his immigration opinions pretty close to the chest in 2004 and McCain is very openly pro-open borders.  Not to mention we saw the extreme distaste hispanics have for Obama in the primaries.  My thinking is that McCain will do very well among hispanics, possibly even winning them.

Is this all based off fantasy? Do you personally see hispanics cheering on Mccain. Like I said before just because latinos preferred Clinton does not mean they will not vote for Obama. Turnout will be lower and the PV margin will be too but Bush heavily overperformed with hispanics in 04. The reason why Bush did not win in a landslide was because the anti-war areas gave a good margin to Kerry. Bush really connected with hispanic voters which Mccain is going to have to prove he can do. He has done it in his homestate but can he do it all over the country? He will have to in NV,CO and NM but he will not do it in CA just because of money. Oh if you still dont think Bush did well with hispanics in CA, just compare 2000 and 2004 numbers for hispanic majority districts.

Ha!  What's fantasy is saying Obama will improve on every demographic in every state, the popular position these days.  You clearly have not read my post, which states the clear facts I have behind my assumption.  Is it possible for things to go the other way?  Of course.  Is my prediction just as valid as yours?  Absolutely.  Get off yourself.  I've done my homework, too.  You go on about these past results and then go and remind us McCain has already connected with hispanics.  Uh, hello?  You're right, he has.  And there's no reason, using your logic of past results as future predictors, to believe he can't do it again.  We've seen that Obama can't and McCain can.  Therefore, one would assume the odds are in favor of McCain doing well with hispanics.  Make sense?  Thought so.

I said your prognostication on latinos was based on fantasy, just like those Obama supporters who think every demographic in every state will swing towards Obama. I do not believe that will be the case and I have never said so. Mccain has been able to connect to his own constituency of hispanics in Arizona but nowhere else. Hispanics in AZ have a personal connection with him and probably have a million reasons to vote for him. That is not the case in any other state and MCcain will have to start over. I agree he is better than any republican at getting the latino vote, but I still dont see him getting over 40% of it. Also just because latinos preferred one democrat over another, does not mean they will choose the republican over the democrat. Now I could be wrong but polling is backing me up right now. Things could of course change by election time.