California

[Alcon]

There's really a lot of California-misunderstanding going on.

1. McCain is unlikely to do as well among California Hispanics as Bush, and he will certainly not win them.

2. Celebrities are not a huge voting bloc in California.  They are not a huge voting bloc in Hollywood.  They are vastly outnumbered by quote-unquote-actors, young folks who work mixed service industry and entertainment jobs.  Young urbanites...Obama...you do the math.

3. Obama is currently averaging about +13 in California polls.  How badly do you think they're off Margin of Error, really?

[Alcon]

I don't really buy this claim that Bush reached all the ceilings in all the Democratic states.

That I disagree with, no doubt

Bush was reelected by record low numbers remember

Eh?

And what I really don't understand is the claim that McCain can't improve on Bush's numbers among hispanics.  The last I heard, Bush kept his immigration opinions pretty close to the chest in 2004 and McCain is very openly pro-open borders.  Not to mention we saw the extreme distaste hispanics have for Obama in the primaries.  My thinking is that McCain will do very well among hispanics,

He'll struggle mightily - Hispanics are nowhere near as GOP-friendly this year as in 2004.  Hispanic GOP support collapsed during 2006.

possibly even winning them.

That would sure be a hat trick.