2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[CookieDamage]

With 2020 results out, I created a 4-4 map, with one lean R and one tilt D among them.

I cracked Madison and gave the western precincts of the city to Kind's disctrict, thus making it much likelier a Dem holds this seat. By doing so, Biden actually won this seat by double digits, compared to losing the current iteration of it.

The Fox Cities district would absolutely be winnable in a 2018 style D wave. Even a D ripple would make the seat competitive. Conversely, the Racine/Kenosha district would have possibly fallen to the GOP in 2020. Biden only won it by a point and a moderate Republican could have won by split-ticketing. If it didn't fall in 2020, it would certainly fall in 2022.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/be834d90-2d23-4bb0-902c-e97cf6b5aed2

[CookieDamage]

4-4 Dem favoring map.

WI-1: Biden 54.3 - Trump 44.1

2: 70-28

3: 61-36

4: 56-41

5: 36-62

6: 47-50

7: 34-64

8: 39-58

[CookieDamage]

Since Wisconsin is so evenly divided, I did a balanced map. 4 Dem, 4 GOP seats.



If you break it down, that's 3 Dem, 3 GOP, 2 Competitive seats (one competitive seat for each party).

CD1 is a lean Dem district that is anchored by Kenosha, Racine and Janesville, all counties that trended right in 2020. Even Kenosha and Racine cities trended right, although Janesville trended left. It voted Clinton +2.8/Biden +4.2. While Biden increased the DEM margins, I still think this district is on borrowed time.

CD6 is a lean GOP district anchored by the Fox Cities plus Green Bay. Sheboygan and Manitowoc are included as well. This district voted Trump +6.9/Trump +2.4. All the major counties trended leftwards. All the major cities (Green Bay, Oshkosh, Appleton) and their outlying communities trended left in 2020 as well. However, the lakefront cities like Sheboygan and Manitowoc trended right ever so slightly.

I could see CD1 being a lean GOP district by 2028/2030 and CD6 being lean DEM.

CD4 is the Driftless district that is anchored by western Madison, Eau Claire, and La Crosse, plus some D-trending Minneapolis suburbs/exurbs like Hudson. It voted Clinton +10.3 and Biden +12.9. I think by the 2030s this district could be in some serious trouble for the Dems, but for now I think it's Likely D.