2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[vileplume]

I had a go at drawing a fair map of the Wisconsin State Assembly. I prioritised minimising splits of counties or municipalities together (not helped by the precinct and city lines being incredibly ugly in places) as well as trying to draw neat, relatively compact districts. There are six African American districts in Milwaukee and two Hispanic ones.

Whole State





Milwaukee-Madison





Fox River Valley





In this attempt at a sensibly drawn map of the Assembly, Trump still won 58 districts to Biden's 41, which is still pretty grim for the Democrats. Democratic voters in this state are so naturally packed that the GOP doesn't even need to draw anything that egregious e.g. slicing up Wisconsin's smaller cities (Sheboygan, Oshkosh, Wausau, Neenah-Menasha) to all but guarantee themselves control outside of a meltdown. Unless you make an deliberate effort to draw many city-suburb districts (which is not the most natural way of drawing them and doesn't respect communities of interest or municipal lines) you'll always end up with a map that decidedly leans Republican in Wisconsin.

There are marginal Trump seats though, the tipping point seat being District 58 in the Green Bay suburbs (De Pere, Ashwaubenon, Hobart, Lawrence, part of Ledgeview) at Trump+7.6. But unfortunately for Democrats of the top 20 most marginal seats, Biden actually still won half of them meaning Republicans could still win in quite a number of districts that went blue in 2020 making the challenge to take the chamber all that more challenging. The upside for Democrats is the 10th most marginal Republican seat is the Waukesha County based District 16 (Brookfield) and this may be the area where they break the Republican's hold on the Assembly.

Only 4 districts flipped between 2016 and 2020:

3 from R to D:
-District 23 (Greenfield)
-District 49 (Neenah-Menasha)
-District 67 (Wausau)

1 from D to R:
-District 98 (Green County, Lafayette County, City & Town of Mineral Point)

[vileplume]

I had a go at drawing a fair map of the Wisconsin State Assembly. I prioritised minimising splits of counties or municipalities together (not helped by the precinct and city lines being incredibly ugly in places) as well as trying to draw neat, relatively compact districts. There are six African American districts in Milwaukee and two Hispanic ones.

Whole State





Milwaukee-Madison





Fox River Valley





In this attempt at a sensibly drawn map of the Assembly, Trump still won 58 districts to Biden's 41, which is still pretty grim for the Democrats. Democratic voters in this state are so naturally packed that the GOP doesn't even need to draw anything that egregious e.g. slicing up Wisconsin's smaller cities (Sheboygan, Oshkosh, Wausau, Neenah-Menasha) to all but guarantee themselves control outside of a meltdown. Unless you make an deliberate effort to draw many city-suburb districts (which is not the most natural way of drawing them and doesn't respect communities of interest or municipal lines) you'll always end up with a map that decidedly leans Republican in Wisconsin.

There are marginal Trump seats though, the tipping point seat being District 58 in the Green Bay suburbs (De Pere, Ashwaubenon, Hobart, Lawrence, part of Ledgeview) at Trump+7.6. But unfortunately for Democrats of the top 20 most marginal seats, Biden actually still won half of them meaning Republicans could still win in quite a number of districts that went blue in 2020 making the challenge to take the chamber all that more challenging. The upside for Democrats is the 10th most marginal Republican seat is the Waukesha County based District 16 (Brookfield) and this may be the area where they break the Republican's hold on the Assembly.

Only 4 districts flipped between 2016 and 2020:

3 from R to D:
-District 23 (Greenfield)
-District 49 (Neenah-Menasha)
-District 67 (Wausau)

1 from D to R:
-District 98 (Green County, Lafayette County, City & Town of Mineral Point)

If you post the DRA link someone else can make a copy and just place the senate districts as well. Your assembly seats seem fine but with nesting they might not be.

Your assembly map seems decent at first glance but I don't think your senate map based by 1-3 nesting would be that good.

I think you definitely screwed Democrats out of a logical tossup seat senate seat  based in Eau Claire county.

I had a go at the State Senate and I think it works out pretty okay:

Whole State





Milwaukee-Madison





Obviously the map leans solidly Republican due to the geography of the state. Trump won 22-11 though a lot of the Republican districts are at least competitive.

The Senate seat with Eau Claire in it (24), shown above, is Trump+3, so it's definitely pretty competitive and so the Democrats are hardly screwed there.

If you mean the Assembly map it's just because the counties of: Eau Claire, Trempealeau, Clark, Jackson and Monroe form a group for four seats (Eau Claire unlike La Crosse is too small to support 2 on its own) and that was the best arrangement I could find for that area. Assembly district 80 (Trempealeau County - Altoona) is only Trump+5.6 and is a seat the Dems would need to take the chamber.

Also I'm happy to publish the links but I'm not exactly sure how you go about doing that..

[vileplume]

If you mean the Assembly map it's just because the counties of: Eau Claire, Trempealeau, Clark, Jackson and Monroe form a group for four seats (Eau Claire unlike La Crosse is too small to support 2 on its own) and that was the best arrangement I could find for that area. Assembly district 80 (Trempealeau County - Altoona) is only Trump+5.6 and is a seat the Dems would need to take the chamber.

The thing is Chippewa + Eau Claire is only 4k short of 3 assembly seats and is a good COI.

Turns out you didn't screw Democrats there much.

I did try that arrangement but the problem was Douglas and Bayfield were fine for 1 district, the rural NW Wisconsin counties of 69 and 71 get 2 and Pierce, St. Croix and Polk get 3. Short of something ugly this pushed Chippewa to be with Barron, Dunn, Pepin and Buffalo for 3.

The part of Eau Claire county that I've paired with Clark and part of Jackson is pretty rural and Republican anyway. So an suburban/rural Eau Claire county based district would be similar in partisan leanings to the one I suggested but likely cause ugly knock-on effects elsewhere. 

[vileplume]

What a wonderful map this would be -

https://twitter.com/BobbyBigWheel/status/1451182214075531264

Eh, you don't need to split Dane to make WI-03 blue and I'm not sure if that WI-04 is majority minority. My fair map is still the best proposal I've seen.

A fair map does not mean a proportional allocation of seats. It means that communities of common interest are kept together, districts are drawn compactly and splits of counties and municipalities are kept to a minimum. Thus in Wisconsin any fair map will have both a compact Milwaukee district and a compact greater Madison district.

Obviously in Wisconsin this is entirely unhelpful to the Democrats but in some states it really does help them (Texas, the plains states etc.). Wisconsin is probably the worst state for Democratic vote distribution to the extent the GOP actually doesn't have to gerrymander (see my attempt at a fair drawing of the legislature), in a fair court drawn map they'd still have a massive advantage for the above reasons.

A fair map of Wisconsin would probably took similar in partisanship as it does now except with the 1st moving somewhat left and the 3rd moving a bit right.

[vileplume]

This is my attempt at a fair map of Wisconsin's congressional districts.

None of the districts have been altered radically and all remain in their current 'base areas'. All districts are within 0.14% of the quota. Only 5 counties are split: Milwaukee (necessary) between the 1st and 4th, Waukesha between the 1st and 5th, Jefferson between the 2nd and 5th, Chippewa between the 3rd and 7th, and Oneida between the 7th and 8th.



2020 Presidential Results
WI-1: R+6.5 (old R+9.2) - shift D+2.7
WI-2: D+43.7 (old D+40.2) - shift D+2.5
WI-3: R+4.3 (old R+4.7) - shift D+0.4
WI-4: D+52.6 (old D+53.6) - shift R+1.0
WI-5: R+23.6 (old R+15.1) - shift R+8.5
WI-6: R+14.4 (old R+15.2) - shift D+0.8
WI-7: R+17.6 (old R+19.9) - shift D+2.3
WI-8 R+15.9 (old R+15.9) - virtually no shift

Whilst it is obviously not great for the Democrats due to their vote being so packed into Milwaukee and Dane counties it is better than the current map. The 1st becomes more winnable for them and the 7th gets a bit more Dem friendly too. But perhaps most critically the 3rd isn't shifted Republican as despite losing Stephens Point it gains Democratic friendly counties in the south-west of the state (Iowa, Green, Sauk). The 5th also becomes more of a Republican vote sink.

Baldwin won the 3rd easily and the 1st my a small amount. She also only lost the 6th, 7th and 8th very narrowly, all by less than 3 points. The 5th being the only one she was crushed in.

[vileplume]

This is my attempt at a fair map of Wisconsin's congressional districts.

None of the districts have been altered radically and all remain in their current 'base areas'. All districts are within 0.14% of the quota. Only 5 counties are split: Milwaukee (necessary) between the 1st and 4th, Waukesha between the 1st and 5th, Jefferson between the 2nd and 5th, Chippewa between the 3rd and 7th, and Oneida between the 7th and 8th.



2020 Presidential Results
WI-1: R+6.5 (old R+9.2) - shift D+2.7
WI-2: D+43.7 (old D+40.2) - shift D+2.5
WI-3: R+4.3 (old R+4.7) - shift D+0.4
WI-4: D+52.6 (old D+53.6) - shift R+1.0
WI-5: R+23.6 (old R+15.1) - shift R+8.5
WI-6: R+14.4 (old R+15.2) - shift D+0.8
WI-7: R+17.6 (old R+19.9) - shift D+2.3
WI-8 R+15.9 (old R+15.9) - virtually no shift

Whilst it is obviously not great for the Democrats due to their vote being so packed into Milwaukee and Dane counties it is better than the current map. The 1st becomes more winnable for them and the 7th gets a bit more Dem friendly too. But perhaps most critically the 3rd isn't shifted Republican as despite losing Stephens Point it gains Democratic friendly counties in the south-west of the state (Iowa, Green, Sauk). The 5th also becomes more of a Republican vote sink.

Baldwin won the 3rd easily and the 1st my a small amount. She also only lost the 6th, 7th and 8th very narrowly, all by less than 3 points. The 5th being the only one she was crushed in.

WI-1 would not have any of Waukesha County in a fair map.

Well Racine, Kenosha, Walworth and the south of Milwaukee county is too small for one district so it needs something else. The most logical area is the Waukesha County suburbs next to the southern Milwaukee ones. I suppose you could instead split Rock county and add Beloit and the south of the county to the 1st (to avoid splitting Janesville) whilst extending the 2nd further into Jefferson county but I don't think this is as compact or as logical as keeping a small part of Waukesha in the 1st.

[vileplume]

Wisconsin is 100% the worst state geographically for democrats

No, that would be Missouri.

Eh, there's a chance both of them will end up with 6-2 R maps with about the same amount of erosity, despite one of them voting Biden by less than a point and the other voting Trump by 15.

Ye MO’s supposed R geographic advantage is overrated. While St. Louis is extremely Dem and stuck in a corner of the state, it is also pretty low turnout and swingy suburbs carry on for a decent amount of time. KC geography isn’t that bad either and Rs have started to overpack in rural MO. 5-1-2 seems pretty reasonable for a state of its partisanship

Yeah, a totally fair map of Missouri would have 2 safe Democratic districts in St Louis and Kansas City respectively, a swing (but Dem trending district in the St Louis suburbs) and 5 safe GOP districts. That really isn't bad at all for a safe GOP state, even the likes of Indiana are worse geographically where a fair map is 7-2 (with the NW Dem district trending red).

Wisconsin is basically set as 6-2 in any 'fair' map in a neutral-ish year. You can mess around the edges to make the Kenosha-Racine and Driftless districts more competitive but even then they'll still vote GOP in a 2020-esque year (WI-03 will probably go the way of MN-08 unless areas in Madison's orbit are added).

Re. Missouri, I guess even if the Republicans don't cut the Kansas City district they'll 100% certainly push Wagner's district into totally safe R territory by adding blood red rural areas seen as they no longer have to worry about ancestral Democratic strength in places like Ste. Genevieve (similar to what they did in Indiana's 5th).