Ryan vs. Clinton

[Suburbia]

If there is a brokered convention, and Speaker Paul Ryan is indeed picked as the presidential nominee in July, how would he do against Hillary Clinton in the general election? Who would be leading nationally heading into the Rio Olympics (when most people don't pay attention to the elections). Discuss with maps and the vice presidential running mates.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Spkr. Paul Ryan/Gov. John Kasich: 272 Electoral Votes 49.2%
Sec. Hillary Clinton/Sen. Tim Kaine: 266 Electoral Votes 49.0%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

First of all it is unlikely that a person that was not even a candidate in the primaries, would win the GOP nomination. However if such an event were to happen I imagine their might be some outcry from some Republicans and non-Republicans. Anyways in this scenario I would guess the GOP nominates either the runner up or one of the top  finishers to be the VP Nominee, in this case I would guess Ted Cruz. I will use Hillary Clinton and Julian Castro on the Democrat ticket. Their are no third parties I imagine.  



After facing a large deficit in the polls Ryan is able to rally the GOP ticket running a strong moderate campaign,  holding all of the 2012 GOP states, while picking up Wisconsin, Colorado and Florida, Narrowly loosing Michigan and Ohio, and with that the Presidency.  

Clinton/Castro 284 EV  51%
Ryan/Cruz 254 EV 49%

[101spotted]

I feel Ryan would most like lose, since I believe Ryan as VP was one of the main reasons Romney lost in 2012.  I just don't see how wanting to abolish Social Security and Medicare could be popular with voters.

[Higgs]

Close election, narrow Ryan win

Paul Ryan/Nikki Haley - 301 EV (49.8%)
Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro - 237 EV (48.6%)

Closest states are: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia

[Slow Learner]

Ryan loses. Come on, the guy is Speaker of the House. Hardly a beloved position.

[Higgs]

Ryan loses. Come on, the guy is Speaker of the House. Hardly a beloved position.

He's been fairly popular so far

[Seneca]

If the convention chooses Ryan, the ultraconservative wing of the party will feel betrayed and will stay home.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If the convention chooses Ryan, the ultraconservative wing of the party will feel betrayed and will stay home.

How we have gotten to a point where Paul Ryan is somehow insufficiently conservative is downright frightening. This is the guy who was put on the ticket because Romney supposedly wasn't conservative enough. The same Romney who ran in 2008 as the conservative alternative to McCain.

Conservatism isn't the right word for the ideology of the American right wing. More like reactionary or counterrevolutionary.

[Seneca]

If the convention chooses Ryan, the ultraconservative wing of the party will feel betrayed and will stay home.

How we have gotten to a point where Paul Ryan is somehow insufficiently conservative is downright frightening. This is the guy who was put on the ticket because Romney supposedly wasn't conservative enough. The same Romney who ran in 2008 as the conservative alternative to McCain.

Conservatism isn't the right word for the ideology of the American right wing. More like reactionary or counterrevolutionary.

Revolutionary, maybe? They're certainly the ones setting the narrative, as opposed to reacted to some "revolution."

But yes, the shift undergone by the Republican party since 2008 is dramatic, to say the least. The best way to think about it, in my opinion, is to view 2009-2016 as the GOP elites losing control of "their" party to the masses, whose fears Trump and Cruz are skillfully tapping into.

Personally, I expect US politics to continue moving along this path from elite-run puppet shows to mass politics. I would not be surprised to see both Democrats and Republicans be captured or fragmented by these mass forces over the next five years. By 2020 we may well see party formations which echo the communist and fascist movements of the 1930s.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If the convention chooses Ryan, the ultraconservative wing of the party will feel betrayed and will stay home.

How we have gotten to a point where Paul Ryan is somehow insufficiently conservative is downright frightening. This is the guy who was put on the ticket because Romney supposedly wasn't conservative enough. The same Romney who ran in 2008 as the conservative alternative to McCain.

Conservatism isn't the right word for the ideology of the American right wing. More like reactionary or counterrevolutionary.

Revolutionary, maybe? They're certainly the ones setting the narrative, as opposed to reacted to some "revolution."

But yes, the shift undergone by the Republican party since 2008 is dramatic, to say the least. The best way to think about it, in my opinion, is to view 2009-2016 as the GOP elites losing control of "their" party to the masses, whose fears Trump and Cruz are skillfully tapping into.

Personally, I expect US politics to continue moving along this path from elite-run puppet shows to mass politics. I would not be surprised to see both Democrats and Republicans be captured or fragmented by these mass forces over the next five years. By 2020 we may well see party formations which echo the communist and fascist movements of the 1930s.

I disagree, I think they view themselves as defending against what they would consider a slow-motion liberal/progressive/socialist revolution. That's why you hear so much rhetoric about "taking our country back".

Perhaps "aspirational counterrevolutionaries" is a more accurate term, but it is a bit too polysyllabic to catch on.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

lmao at Ryan carrying Wisconsin.

If the convention chooses Ryan, the ultraconservative wing of the party will feel betrayed and will stay home.

How we have gotten to a point where Paul Ryan is somehow insufficiently conservative is downright frightening. This is the guy who was put on the ticket because Romney supposedly wasn't conservative enough. The same Romney who ran in 2008 as the conservative alternative to McCain.

Conservatism isn't the right word for the ideology of the American right wing. More like reactionary or counterrevolutionary.

Paul Ryan is only a 'conservative' in the sense that he supports draconian economic policies. He's a Jack Kemp Republican who thinks that he can save the world with an excel spreadsheet.

[Kingpoleon]

280: Fmr. Sec. Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Rep. Pete Visclosky(D-IN) - 50.1%
258: Speaker Paul Ryan(R-WI)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 46.5%

Missouri and Iowa will be very close, too, due the large Republican base numbers there.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

280: Fmr. Sec. Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Rep. Pete Visclosky(D-IN) - 50.1%
258: Speaker Paul Ryan(R-WI)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 46.5%

Missouri and Iowa will be very close, too, due the large Republican base numbers there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEFnH0Fu-e4

[Mike Thick]

280: Fmr. Sec. Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Rep. Pete Visclosky(D-IN) - 50.1%
258: Speaker Paul Ryan(R-WI)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 46.5%

Missouri and Iowa will be very close, too, due the large Republican base numbers there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEFnH0Fu-e4

Isn't Pete Visclosky flipping Indiana kind of like Ryan flipping Wisconsin in 2012?

[Suburbia]

Visclosky would be a good vice presidential choice, folks. He adds Midwestern support, and he's pretty liberal.

[Mike Thick]

Visclosky would be a good vice presidential choice, folks. He adds Midwestern support, and he's pretty liberal.

He's a 66-year old white guy, which isn't great. Also, isn't he pretty unknown? I'd never heard of him outside of Indiana-related stuff.