buritobr
YaBB God
Posts: 3,678
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« on: September 12, 2016, 08:14:25 PM » |
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In 1980, some states were early called to Reagan, and his margin was very small.
In 1992, some states that Clinon won narrowly were called early to Clinton, and some states that Bush won were considered too close to call.
In 2004, some states that Kerry won narrowly were called early to Kerry, and some states that Bush Jr. won narrowly were considered too close to call.
Hypothesis: Exit polls do not reach well the rural areas of the states. So, they overestimated Clinton and Kerry, and overestimated Reagan too. In the southern states, Carter did better in the rural areas.
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