GOP house gains in 2012?

[minionofmidas]

The GOP will almost assuredly "gain" some seats on the national scale because of redistricting.

(and others too, of course)

We should really not blur the distinction between *reapportionment* (which will favor Republicans, correcting an imbalance), and *redistricting*.

[minionofmidas]

Any sort of major wrenching in DFW would have to be carefully done to avoid creating a democratic target, though.

[minionofmidas]

Any sort of major wrenching in DFW would have to be carefully done to avoid creating a democratic target, though.

Not really.  If the Republicans create a Hispanic-Majority district alongside the current Black-Plurality one,

then the new district in DFW is Democratic and my point is moot. -_- Jim was arguing that another Republican district could be added, which I think is possible... but perhaps not without creating one or more realistic targets for Democrats.

[minionofmidas]

My guess is that Obama significantly overran generic Dem strength in some of the suburbs of DFW in particular... I think the trend in some of those districts like TX-24, TX-32, and similarly in Houston, TX-7 was very strong and then snapped back sharply this year. 55% McCain should be more than strong enough for a Texas Republican congressman.

Well, judging by Rick Perry's percentages (which are similar to McCains), Republicans gained a few points in the big cites like Dallas, Fort Worth, El Paso, Austin, and San Antonio (Houston was White's home region).  The only regions that Perry did significantly worse in outside Houston was rural Texas (where White actually won a few counties) the San Antonio Suburbs (where he did about 2-3 points worse), and the South Dallas Suburbs (where Perry did worse, despite gaining roughly the same amount in the North Dallas Suburbs).

Okay, so the last of these is surprising.

[minionofmidas]

Has anyone else noticed that Democratic gerrymanders generally look "worse" on a map than GOP gerrymanders?  Democrats usually try to draw lots of awkward looking "spokes" out of the cities, while Republicans will usually separate the cities as their own circle/box shaped districts and then have several roughly quadrilateral disticts that cover large rural areas and some suburbs.

Hmmm... Florida? DeLay's Texas (before the two most visibly ridiculous seats got struck down)?
Then again... Maryland. The Democrat's Georgia. North Carolina.
And of course, let's not forget bipartisan Illinois. And of course VRA-protected seats of that type in Alabama and Virginia.
Nope, I don't think there's a partisan dimension to that. Republican Georgia's looks nicer because it's not much of a gerrymander, not because it's a republican one. Michigan's is because the law there banned a Florida-style map.