ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[Neptunium]

Left: 2020 Presidential election in Chungli District, Taoyuan City:
(DPP) Tsai Ing-wen: 51.46% (126,600 votes)
(KMT) Han Kuo-yu: 43.70% (107,499 votes)

Right: 2021 Taoyuan City Council recall vote:
Agree: 25.81% of electorate (84,582 votes) (92.23% of all valid votes)
Disagree: 2.17% of electorate (7,128 votes) (7.77% of all valid votes)
Turnout: 28.14%

After the recall threshold was lowered to 25% in 2016, it is much easier to recall politicians now compared to 10-20 years ago. It was used to be 50%!

Earlier today, the CEC has announced that there will be no by-election or appointment to fill Wang's seat, leaving it vacant until the rest of the term (December 24, 2022).
Source (in Chinese)

THIS MAP IS GREAT!

This shows height correlation between political affiliation and agree voter turn out.

Could you allow me to publish this map on PTT?

[MoreThanPolitics]

Left: 2020 Presidential election in Chungli District, Taoyuan City:
(DPP) Tsai Ing-wen: 51.46% (126,600 votes)
(KMT) Han Kuo-yu: 43.70% (107,499 votes)

Right: 2021 Taoyuan City Council recall vote:
Agree: 25.81% of electorate (84,582 votes) (92.23% of all valid votes)
Disagree: 2.17% of electorate (7,128 votes) (7.77% of all valid votes)
Turnout: 28.14%

After the recall threshold was lowered to 25% in 2016, it is much easier to recall politicians now compared to 10-20 years ago. It was used to be 50%!

Earlier today, the CEC has announced that there will be no by-election or appointment to fill Wang's seat, leaving it vacant until the rest of the term (December 24, 2022).
Source (in Chinese)

THIS MAP IS GREAT!

This shows height correlation between political affiliation and agree voter turn out.

Could you allow me to publish this map on PTT?

Sure!

(Edit: The presidential margin in 青埔里 is now fixed; should be DPP>15 instead of >20, please make sure you use the map in reply #374, not the one you quoted me)

[MoreThanPolitics]

Left: 2020 Presidential election in Chungli District, Taoyuan City:
(DPP) Tsai Ing-wen: 51.46% (126,600 votes)
(KMT) Han Kuo-yu: 43.70% (107,499 votes)

Right: 2021 Taoyuan City Council recall vote:
Agree: 25.81% of electorate (84,582 votes) (92.23% of all valid votes)
Disagree: 2.17% of electorate (7,128 votes) (7.77% of all valid votes)
Turnout: 28.14%

After the recall threshold was lowered to 25% in 2016, it is much easier to recall politicians now compared to 10-20 years ago. It was used to be 50%!

Earlier today, the CEC has announced that there will be no by-election or appointment to fill Wang's seat, leaving it vacant until the rest of the term (December 24, 2022).
Source (in Chinese)

THIS MAP IS GREAT!

This shows height correlation between political affiliation and agree voter turn out.

Could you allow me to publish this map on PTT?

In case you missed it: The presidential margin in 青埔里 is corrected; it should be DPP>15 instead of DPP>20. The above should be the correct map - my apologizes.

P.S. Good luck in your PTT moderator election, I think?

[jaichind]

If we look at the next recall battle on Feb 6th for ex-NPP Kaohsiung city assembly member 黃捷(Huang) the numbers are not as possible for the recall campaign as Wang.

The threshold for recall which is 25% of the electorate is 71,958.

2018 City assembly election in 鳳山(Fengshan District) or Kaohsiung 9th District was

KMT          30,069                     elected
KMT          23,983                     elected
DPP           22,298                    elected
KMT          19,798                     elected
KMT          19,085                     elected
NPP           18,420 (Huang)       elected
DPP           17,807                    elected
DPP           13,022                    elected
DPP           10,605
NPB            9,838 (Light Blue KMT ally)
DPP            8,870
TSP            7,729 (Radical pro-independence party)
IND(KO)    1,295
IND(KMT)     983
IND(KMT)     484
IND(KMT)     329
 
If we group by votes by Blue (KMT), Light Blue (NPB Ind(KMT)), KO, Green (DPP), Deep Green(NPP,TSP) we have

Blue              92,935
Light Blue      11,634
KO                  1,295
Green            72,602
Deep Green   26,149

In theory the recall campaign just have to get a high turnout of the Blue vote and it should be enough to recall Haung.  Problem is that 2018 was a high turnout election in Kaohsiung and a lot of the Blue vote were due to the Han wave which has clearly dissipated.  I think it will be hard to get even half the 2018 Blue vote to turn out in the recall election.

Another key thing to realized that 鳳山(Fengshan District) is in old Kaohsiung County which has been a DPP stronghold since the mid 1980s.

2020 election in  鳳山(Fengshan District)  was

Prez
DPP    138,172
KMT     82,432
PFP        7,295

PR
Deep Blue minor      2,488
KMT                      71,332
Light Blue minor      8,659
TPP                       20,469
Light Green minor    4,818
DPP                       83,659
Deep Green minor  35,447

Shows the extent of the decline of the 2018 Han surge for the Blue forces where Han nor the KMT+Deep Blue minor on the PR slate could match what the KMT vote in 2018 in the City assembly in a high turnout Prez election.

It seems based on these numbers the recall of Huang most likely could get to at most around 50K and fall quite short of the  71,958 target.  Now if the recall campaign can get well above 50K turnout then the KMT turnout machine will have shown itself to be recovering from the hammering it took in 2020 elections.

[MoreThanPolitics]

Yesterday (January 19) was Huang Jie's birthday, so her staffers made this celebratory video of Fongshan citizens and politicians all over Taiwan wishing her a happy birthday, spanning from KMT to TSP and her former party members. Heck, even the leader of the recall initiative made an appearance! This is pretty unexpected, I must say.

https://www.facebook.com/FongshanHuangjie/videos/vb.2059082864419453/253843039628168

[MoreThanPolitics]

After the recall vote in Chungli, Taoyuan, we head south to Fongshan District (鳳山區), Kaohsiung, where voters will decide whatever to oust New Power Party (NPP)-turned-independent city councilor Huang Jie (黃捷) from office on February 6, which is a recall election initiated by bad faith KMT/Han Kuo-yu supporters.

A former legislative assistant to the NPP caucus, Huang was first elected to the Kaohsiung City Council in 2018 despite the KMT wave. She gained much attention around the country in May 2019, where she was best known for rolling her eyes when then-mayor Han dodged her questions about the details of the free economic zone that Han planned to establish. Instead, Han said the purpose of the whole project is to "make Kaohsiung rich" (高雄發大財), and nothing else. In other words, he couldn't make coherent policy proposals at all! Huang, on the other hand, was crowned the title of "eye-rolling goddess" by the media, while indirectly exposing Han's incompetence at the same time.

After Han's landslide defeat in the 2020 presidential election, opponents of Han decided to recall him after he returned to Kaohsiung. Around the same time, Huang received death threats from Han supporters threatening to recall her in revenge. Fast forward to June 6, 2020, then-City Council speaker Hsu Kun-yuan (許崑源), one of Han's most fierce supporters,  jumped to his death after he heard the news that Han was recalled. Two days later, Huang and her colleagues attended his funeral. Wu Chiu-li (吳秋麗), then-minister of the Bureau of Legal Affairs of the Kaohsiung City Government, criticized Huang for being disrespectful to Hsu because she had lipstick on during his funeral -- yeah, you read that right.

Meanwhile, triggered Han supporters also started the recall process against her. At first, Huang underestimated their power by jokingly saying they couldn't write the Chinese character 鳳 correctly when filling the petition forms. Until the Central Election Commission (CEC) announced that they had collected enough signatures to schedule a recall vote, Huang changed her attitude and urged her supporters to keep her in office.

According to the leaders of the recall initiative, they wanted to get rid of Huang due to the below reasons:

• She hasn't fulfilled the responsibilities of a city councilor
• She distorts the facts and ignores public opinion
• She engages in double standard, i.e. her attitude towards Han Kuo-yu and Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁, winner of the by-election) of the DPP is different
• She is unkind to the elders and does not have a sense of shame
• During the "violence" in Hong Kong, she asked citizens to send protest supplies to her (so that she can bring them to HK), which they view as "interference" (Some even accused her of violating the HK National Security Law!)
• She is double-standarded towards China

... which I call bulls**t. Looks like Huang has their glass hearts scattered.

Originally calling Huang to "remain lowkey", the DPP ordered every elected official in Kaohsiung to stand in solidarity and urged supporters to vote not to recall her after party member Wang Hao-yu was recalled (although Wang himself is a pretty controversial figure, see my earlier replies to learn more). Even President Tsai said they couldn't "just sit by and watch her getting recalled", which determined the DPP's stance on the vote: energize every supporter to vote so that she can stay in the Council. One further explanation is to avoid a domino effect: if Huang is recalled, the KMT can further recall DPP/pan-green politicians who support U.S. imports of ractopork (i.e. pork that contains ractopamine), which could heavily drag down the DPP's approval ratings and electoral prospects.

When the KMT supported the removal of Huang (which is obvious), the NPP, Huang's former political party, remained divided ahead of the vote. In June 2020, then-party chairman Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明) stepped down due to allegations of bribery, and the central commission indirectly supported Hsu by making public appearances with him after a court appearance. Ironically, the founding of the party is to call against the corruption of both major parties, which it claims to be above them.

Two months later, in August, Huang announced she would be leaving the NPP. Before that, the party held its central committee elections, which Huang was part of. After the elections, the party announced that Huang's sister and 12 other members' votes were invalid because the dues of the 13 people were paid with the same credit card. Huang suggested the voting process is "undemocratic" and left the party.

The NPP, in general, is split into two factions regarding the attitude towards the DPP. One side, led by Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌) and Hsu, advocates drawing clear lines between the DPP, and calling out the party if necessary. In other words, he doesn't want the party to become a subsidiary of the DPP. Another faction, mainly led by Freddy Lim (林昶佐), advocates keeping close with the DPP to counter the KMT together. Huang is generally viewed as a member of the latter faction, as some in the party view she is being too close with Lim. (On a side note, Lim has already left the party back in August 2019, which he opposed Huang's plan to run for president.)

Back to the election: to successfully recall Huang, they need 71,958 "agree" votes (i.e. 1/4 of Fongshan District's electorate) while exceeding the number of "disagree" votes. Given KMT and Han supporters going all-in ahead of the election, it is best for Huang to mobilize her base and play a 1-versus-1 battle. In the 2020 presidential election, Fongshan District gave Tsai Ing-wen 60.63% of the vote, making it 3.50% more DPP compared to the country. Despite it being a light green district, Huang's fate all depends on whatever the DPP/pan-green base is energized enough. If she survives, it might mean a future run for the Legislative Yuan (LY) to replace Hsu Chih-chieh (許智傑), the incumbent DPP legislator in case he retires (Note: Huang's city council constituency completely overlaps Hsu's LY constituency, except Huang represents a constituency that elects 8 seats, while all constituency seats in the LY just elects one member.) If she is unlucky and the KMT gets the last laugh, maybe she will return to NTU to complete her master's degree?

External Readings:
NPP Central Committee Elections Sees Huang Jie’s Departure, Kao Yu-ting Elected as Chair
Does The Recall of DPP City Councilor Wang Hao-yu Reflect A Larger Trend?

[jaichind]

With less than two weeks before 黃捷(Huang) recall election, DPP Prez Tsai has jumped in to call on the DPP to support 黃捷(Huang).  I guess Tsai figured with the surprise successful recall of Wang the KMT base might be more motivated to turnout in the  黃捷(Huang) recall race ergo there is a need for get the DPP base to come out to vote against the recall in case the pro-recall vote exceeds 25% of the number of registered voters.  Given the fact that the recall of 黃捷(Huang) is not likely to succeed (鳳山(Fengshan District) is just a more lean Green district and 黃捷(Huang) is less polarizing than Wang) I suspect Tsai is looking to claim credit for the defeat of the recall and shift the political narrative in her favor again after a couple of bad political months for her.

[jaichind]

In the 黃捷(Huang) recall vote the DPP is really mobilizing to get out the No vote.  Would not surprise me if BOTH the Yes vote falls  below 25% of registered voters AND the No vote exceed the Yes vote.  If the Yes vote get close to 25% and soundly beats the No vote then it will be a slap on the face for Tsai.  I think she figured it was unlikely ergo she put in the political capital to back 黃捷(Huang).

[MoreThanPolitics]

Before I go to sleep, here are results of the 2020 presidential election in Fongshan District:

(DPP) Tsai Ing-wen: 60.63% (138,172 votes)
(KMT) Han Kuo-yu: 36.17% (82,432 votes)
(PFP) James Soong: 3.20% (7,295 votes)

See you tomorrow.

[MoreThanPolitics]

Polls are now opened in Fongshan until 4pm.

[MoreThanPolitics]

Polls are now closed in Fongshan, Kaohsiung.

Live results (in Chinese):

[MoreThanPolitics]

Kaohsiung City Election Commission results as of 5:30pm:
Yes 51884
No 61932

[MoreThanPolitics]

Looks like this is the final results. Since "yes" votes did not exceed 25% of the electorate, Huang is safe. She will hold a press conference later at 6pm tonight.

2021 Kaohsiung City Council recall vote:
Disagree: 22.43% of electorate (65,391 votes) (54.20% of all valid votes)
Agree: 18.95% of electorate (55,261 votes) (45.80% of all valid votes)

Turnout: 41.54% (121,110/291,566)
Threshold: 72,892 votes

Source: Central Election Commission, Taiwan
https://www.cec.gov.tw/central/cms/110news/34992

[MoreThanPolitics]

Ward-level results are out: https://web.cec.gov.tw/khec/cms/news/34993

Map time!

[jaichind]

Solid victory of Tsai over Pan-Blue forces. Although the way this was done does pose a risk for DPP in the 2022 City assembly elections.  Assuming 黃捷(Huang) runs for re-election she will now sweep up a lot of the DPP vote and perhaps cost the DPP a seat.  Still this results bodes well for the DPP for 2022 Kaohsiung city assembly elections since it shows 2018 might have been a fluke.  The KMT still have a lot of support at the local level but now there seems to be some hope for the DPP to recapture the majority in the  Kaohsiung city assembly in 2022 despite clear headwinds the DPP will face with double anti-incumbency.

[MoreThanPolitics]

Here are some major outliers in this recall vote:

高雄市鳳山區富甲里
2020 Presidential: Tsai (DPP) 65.91%; Han (KMT) 30.45%
2021 Recall:                    No 47.83%;            Yes 52.17%

高雄市鳳山區縣口里
2020 Presidential: Tsai (DPP) 45.74%; Han (KMT) 50.53%
2021 Recall:                    No 55.03%;            Yes 44.97%
 

[MoreThanPolitics]

Left: 2021 Kaohsiung City Council recall vote: (% of all valid votes)
Disagree: 54.20% (65,391 votes)
Agree: 45.80% (55,261 votes)
Turnout: 41.54%
(Note: Grey = tied)

Top Right: 2020 Presidential election in Fongshan District, Kaohsiung City:
(DPP) Tsai Ing-wen: 60.63% (138,172 votes)
(KMT) Han Kuo-yu: 36.17% (82,432 votes)

Bottom Right: 2021 Kaohsiung City Council recall vote: (% of electorate)
Disagree: 22.43% of electorate
Agree: 18.95% of electorate

Neptunium, feel free to post this to PTT. I also included a Chinese legend if you want it.

P.S. Here are the results of the 1981 and 1985 magistrate elections in Yilan County, which saw the victory of Tangwai legend Chen Ding-nan (陳定南).
https://web.cec.gov.tw/ilec/cms/history007

P.P.S. Here are the village/administrative division-level results of the March 1993 magistrate by-election in Penghu County (NOTE: NOT the general election in November). Results can be found at p. 14.
https://ens.phlib.nat.gov.tw/rb/index-1.asp?Parser=99,8,23,,,,19930315,128,,,15

Take them if you are interested!

[Neptunium]

Left: 2021 Kaohsiung City Council recall vote: (% of all valid votes)
Disagree: 54.20% (65,391 votes)
Agree: 45.80% (55,261 votes)
Turnout: 41.54%
(Note: Grey = tied)

Top Right: 2020 Presidential election in Fongshan District, Kaohsiung City:
(DPP) Tsai Ing-wen: 60.63% (138,172 votes)
(KMT) Han Kuo-yu: 36.17% (82,432 votes)

Bottom Right: 2021 Kaohsiung City Council recall vote: (% of electorate)
Disagree: 22.43% of electorate
Agree: 18.95% of electorate

Neptunium, feel free to post this at PTT. I also included a Chinese legend if you want it.

P.S. Here are the results of the 1981 and 1985 magistrate elections in Yilan County, which saw the victory of Tangwai legend Chen Ding-nan (陳定南).
https://web.cec.gov.tw/ilec/cms/history007

P.P.S. Here are the village/administrative division-level results of the March 1993 magistrate by-election in Penghu County (NOTE: NOT the general election in November). Results can be found at p. 14.
https://ens.phlib.nat.gov.tw/rb/index-1.asp?Parser=99,8,23,,,,19930315,128,,,15

Take them if you are interested!

THANKS YOU VERY MUCH!

[MoreThanPolitics]

Well, the Han Kuo-yu fans are at it again. Following the failure of getting Huang Jie recalled, they are now targeting fellow Kaohsiung city councilor Kao Min-lin 高閔琳, who is also a outspoken critic of Han. Before this month, the recall process has entered the second phase, where they have to gather 19,144 signatures to pass (=10% of electorate of Kao's constituency, which includes Yung'an 永安, Gangshan 岡山, Yanchao 燕巢, Mituo 彌陀, Ziguan 梓官 and Ciaotou 橋頭 districts).

Yesterday, the Kaohsiung City Election Commission announced that the recall initiators failed to gather enough valid signatures for the second phase, citing the excessive number of repeat signatures (note: someone who already signed in the first phase are ineligible to sign again in the second phase). In other words, the initiative is now dead!

Source (in Chinese): https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/3453894

[Neptunium]

Well, the Han Kuo-yu fans are at it again. Following the failure of getting Huang Jie recalled, they are now targeting fellow Kaohsiung city councilor Kao Min-lin 高閔琳, who is also a outspoken critic of Han. Before this month, the recall process has entered the second phase, where they have to gather 19,144 signatures to pass (=10% of electorate of Kao's constituency, which includes Yung'an 永安, Gangshan 岡山, Yanchao 燕巢, Mituo 彌陀, Ziguan 梓官 and Ciaotou 橋頭 districts).

Yesterday, the Kaohsiung City Election Commission announced that the recall initiators failed to gather enough valid signatures for the second phase, citing the excessive number of repeat signatures (note: someone who already signed in the first phase are ineligible to sign again in the second phase). In other words, the initiative is now dead!

Source (in Chinese): https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/3453894

Sigh, I wish they would have succeeds to pass second phase, since I like election anyways .

[MoreThanPolitics]

This August, there will be a series of referendums and a potential legislative recall vote in Taichung's 2nd district, which was widely seen as a mid-term report card on president Tsai Ing-wen and the governing DPP.

Btw, when is the best time for me to start a new thread for the 2022 midterms?

[jaichind]

This August, there will be a series of referendums and a potential legislative recall vote in Taichung's 2nd district, which was widely seen as a mid-term report card on president Tsai Ing-wen and the governing DPP.

Btw, when is the best time for me to start a new thread for the 2022 midterms?

The typical rule here is that one does not create a thread for an election beyond a year our. So in early 2022 I for sure plan to create a thread on 2022 ROC local elections.

[jaichind]

With  a series of severe self-goals (two mass power cuts, water shortage, COVID-19 surge, scandals on mafia infiltration of the DPP, discovery of DPP online army pretending to be pro-PRC elements etc etc) the situation for DPP and Tsai are now falling rapidly for the first time since the early 2019 when Tsai made a remarkable recovery from the 2018 local election disaster.

It seems very likely now that 2022 will be anti-DPP wave part II.

The KMT really blew it in 2020.   Once the HK protests started in 2019 the KMT should have accepted 2020 as lost and ran Guo instead of Han.  That would still meant defeat in the Prez race and will not have stopped a pan-Green legislative majority but could have prevented a DPP legislative majority.  More importantly Han would have stayed put as the mayor of Kaoshiung City (高雄市) .    In the 2022 anti-DPP wave Han would have won re-election.

As it is in 2022 the KMT will most likely keep all their seats and flip Taipei City (臺北市), Keelong City (基隆市), Taoyuan City (桃園市), and Hsinchu City(新竹市) but will most likely not flip Kaoshiung City (高雄市).  If so then 2022 will be a re-run of the 2005-2006 cycle with the exception that the KMT in 2022 will hold Yunlin County(雲林縣) but did not hold in in the 2005-2006 cycle.   Still the 2005-2006 cycle did herald the 2008 KMT landslide victory in the legislative and Prez races.

Also the Pan-Blue forces will be in a good position to hold on to their very strong position in the county and city assemblies from the 2018 elections whereas before I was fearful of pan-Green gains there in 2022.

With problems for the DPP Tsai regime building up now it time to get the popcorn and get ready for another anti-DPP wave in 2022.

What the KMT has to focus on in 2022 are social wedge issues to break the DPP coalition of Southern social conservatives and Northern progressives.  The KMT play of gay marriage in 2018 worked well although with the surge of the salience of anti-unification this worked in Tsai's favor in 2020 when she got the anti-unification social conservatives vote PLUS the urban progressive vote.  With all the DPP self-goals 2022 most likely will have a lower anti-unification salience so the KMT should re-run the 2018 playbook most likely using nuclear power as the main theme with other social conservative issues as helper issues.  The idea is to get the DPP Southern social conservative base to come over to the KMT or for the DPP Northern progressive vote to shift to TPP or NPP or ideally both.

[MoreThanPolitics]

(Edited October 23, 2021: typos)

On this Saturday (October 23), voters of Taichung's 2nd Legislative Yuan constituency, consisting of Shalu 沙鹿, Longjing 龍井, Dadu 大肚, Wuri 烏日 and Wufeng 霧峰 districts, will decide whatever to keep Taiwan Statebuilding Party (TSP) legislator "3Q" Chen Po-wei 陳柏惟 in the legislature. A fiery politician well-known for his hardline pro-Taiwan independence stances, he is the third to face a recall election this year. Originally held on August 28, the vote was postponed until this week due to the COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan a few months ago.

Following the landslide defeat of disgraced former mayor Han Kuo-yu 韓國瑜 last June, the vote was largely seen as a series of KMT-led "revenge recalls" targeting some of Han's biggest critics. As a candidate for the Kaohsiung City Council back in 2018, Chen and the TSP (then known as Taiwan Radical Wings) have blasted Han for his impractical policies and pro-China views. Amid the nationwide KMT wave, none of his party's candidates were elected, although Chen came close to winning a seat in his district of Sanmin 三民.

In April 2019, Chen expressed his intention to run for Legislative Yuan. In a joint press conference with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in August, both parties reached an agreement that Chen would be standing for Taichung's 2nd constituency against Kuomintang (KMT) incumbent Yen Kuan-hen 顏寬恒.

Yen was first elected in a 2013 by-election to replace his father Yen Ching-piao 顏清標. Yen Ching-piao isn't your ordinary pan-blue politician: he is a notorious gangster and crime boss who has been influential in Taichung politics for decades. In 1986, years before Yen entered politics, he was jailed for his ties with organized crime. In 2001, he was again locked behind bars for graft, illegal weapon possession, and masterminding a failed assassination attempt. Thanks to his strong reputation among locals, he still managed to win a Legislative Yuan seat while in custody. He would go on to win re-election three more times.

In 2011, the High Court found Yen guilty of misusing public funds and reporting false financial statements during his tenure as speaker of Taichung County Council in the 1990s, accusing him of using taxpayer dollars for private entertainment such as nightclubs and karaoke TV bars. Yen's seat was stripped following an unsuccessful appeal to the Supreme Court, triggering a by-election in March 2013. His son was elected by an extremely narrow margin, and was re-elected in 2016.

Widely viewed as an underdog to the incumbent, TSP's Chen Po-wei defeated the younger Yen by 2.3 points in 2020 in what was one of the biggest upsets in the election, ending decades of Yen/KMT domination in the area. Chen, who only moved to Taichung five months before the election, even managed to win every administrative district in the constituency, including Yen's stronghold of Shalu.

Upon being a legislator, Chen stood with the DPP on most issues (which is pretty inevitable for being from a one-man party), most notably when he sided with the party on lifting restrictions on U.S. imports of pork products containing ractopamine.

Chen was known for his confrontational, no-nonsense style of politics, especially when it comes to everything China and the KMT -- sometimes to the point where he ended up embarrassing himself. In March 2020, he raised the idea of letting people from Hong Kong join the country's Armed Forces in exchange for obtaining permanent residence in Taiwan, claiming young Hongkongers "are much anti-CCP" than Taiwanese. (Author's note: Taiwan is the last place on Earth where you want more Communist Chinese spies entering your country, and I'm saying this as a Hongkonger.) Even the DPP and Chen's supporters raised doubts about his proposal.

In the eyes of KMT supporters, Chen's deadliest "sin" is his active role in recalling Han Kuo-yu back in 2019. After their God Emperor's landslide defeat last year, they have started to find punching bags for them to vent their anger, which is, recalling some of Han's highest-profile critics in retribution. While they were successful in ousting then-Taoyuan city councilor Wang Hao-yu 王浩宇 from office earlier this January, Kaohsiung city councilor Huang Jie 黃捷 survived hers the following month with help from the DPP, although one can also argue that Wang is a despicable character with a Wikipedia page full of controversies while Huang only rolled her eyes at Han.

In February 2021, another group of initiators has vowed to recall Chen as part of their "revenge recalls". The Central Election Commission certified the validity of collected signatures on July 2, and scheduled a recall election on August 28 before it was postponed to this Saturday. According to the recall initiators, they wanted to kick Chen out of office because:

• he has done nothing to his constituency and is full of empty promises;
• he supports policies that deviate his constituents' wills;
• his legislative speeches are filled with "nonsense" and faux pas; and
• he threatens to suppress his opponents with violence.

Chen fought back by emphasizing his legislative record, such as perfect attendance rate, making interpellations in every meeting, and the number of constituent service cases done.

The KMT, unsurprisingly, was supportive of the recall initiation and has mobilized supporters to join their efforts. Its newly-elected chairman, Eric Chu Li-lun 朱立倫, went one step further and framed the vote, as well as December's national referendums, as an act of confrontation against the ruling DPP. During the campaign period, Chu blasted Chen for being an ineffective legislator with poor ratings from legislative watchdogs -- except the organization was headed by Chu's father-in-law. Chen's party immediately filed a complaint against Chu, claiming him as a "shameless liar".

Chen was also accused of being the perpetrator of a hit-and-run incident in 2011, to which he admitted and apologized to the victim. Following the incident, recall initiators and pro-KMT pundits started to make false allegations about Chen, like accusing him of hiring his biological brother as his legislative assistant (while it was his cousin). On a rare occasion, China Central Television, China's state-run media, showed support for Chen's recall in a talk show.

Like what they have done to Huang Jie in February, the DPP has ordered the party's elected officials to stand in solidarity and urged voters to help remain Chen in office. President Tsai, in a Central Standing Committee meeting, praised Chen as a "hardworking" legislator. The vote even attracted attention in Japan: in a tweet written entirely in Chinese, Kobe city councilor Uehata Norihiro 上畠寬弘 of the LDP said the recall was initiated by the KMT "in a bad faith manner" that only benefited the CCP and KMT.

Taichung's 2nd constituency has an electorate of 294,376. To successfully recall Chen, they need at least 73,744 "yes" (or "remove") votes while also exceeding the number of "No" votes. Tsai carried the green-trending district with 57.53% of the vote in last year's presidential election, making it 0.4% more DPP than the nation. Expect a competitive race tomorrow, but there is one thing to remember: presidential races and legislative races aren't always the most apples-to-apples comparison, especially when Yen survived the 2016 wave.

[MoreThanPolitics]

Polls have now closed in Taichung.

Update: The Taichung Election Commission just predicted a turnout of 53%. If it is the case, Chen is finished if a majority of voters voted to remove him from office.

17:33 Update: "Yes" votes have now passed the threshold of 73,744.

If I recall correctly, Chen becomes the first ever legislator to be recalled. A win for the Yen family/mafia, but a big loss for Taiwan.