Which states that border Mexico will vote for Biden
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Question: What states that border Mexico does Biden win?
#1
California		  
#2
Arizona		  
#3
New Mexico		  
#4
Texas		  
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Total Voters: 102

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Author Topic: Which states that border Mexico will vote for Biden  (Read 1192 times)
mileslunn
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« on: September 17, 2020, 02:32:59 AM »
Since all border states have large Hispanic populations which lean Democrat, which do you think Biden will win.  He could win all four, but I am guessing 3 of 4

California: This doesn't need any explanation, easy Biden win

New Mexico: If GOP could do better amongst Hispanics like Bush did in 2004, they would have a chance here, but Trump's nativism has put this state out of reach.  However unlike California, Trump still has a chance at getting over 40%.

Arizona: I think Biden flips this, but possible Trump holds it, especially if Hispanic turnout is low.

Texas: This will be the toughest and while trending blue, I still think Trump narrowly holds this, but probably only 1-3 points which is dangerously close for what not too long ago was a solid red state.
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Red Wall
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2020, 08:53:43 AM »
California and New Mexico
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2020, 09:05:21 AM »
California, Arizona, New Mexico.
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SInNYC
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2020, 09:15:52 AM »
TX, then AZ for Trump is obvious.

NM votes Biden but probably not because of nativism. The majority of Hispanics in NM are from Spain long back, not from over the border.
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ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2020, 09:20:45 AM »

Just these.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2020, 09:25:06 AM »
All four
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ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2020, 09:30:01 AM »

Why do you think Russ Feingold was robbed?
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Chips
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2020, 10:23:27 AM »
CA and NM.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2020, 10:53:47 AM »
Hes my favorite senator of all time. Willing to stand up to both parties. We dont have many senators like that ny more
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2020, 11:12:21 AM »
California: 100% chance.

New Mexico: 100% chance.

Arizona: 60% chance.

Texas: 30% chance.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2020, 12:32:44 PM »
Hopefully all of them.

I am sure he would win Mexico too if it voted.
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Storr
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2020, 02:19:46 PM »
Probably California, Arizona, and New Mexico. But, Texas will be close and could be the surprise of the election.
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Badger
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2020, 02:29:22 PM »
What the OP said, though at this point I'd rate AZ as closer to Likely Biden than tilt.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2020, 04:40:47 PM »
All of the above.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2020, 04:54:43 PM »
« Edited: September 17, 2020, 05:06:03 PM by Monstro »
The thread may as well be "Do you think Texas will flip?"

And not just because this felt like an excuse for OP to reiterate his same "Trending blue, but an election cycle or two away from flipping" take 3 times in 40 minutes
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woodley park
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« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2020, 05:00:04 PM »
To hell with it -- all of them. Its not like there are any consequences for being wrong!
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jdk
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« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2020, 05:23:53 PM »
I will say this:
Biden has a much better chance of winning Texas than Trump does Arizona
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2020, 05:43:51 PM »
Only about a quarter calling Texas for Biden? Should be more like 50/50 based on the polls.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #18 on: September 17, 2020, 05:44:33 PM »
Quote from: SInNYC on September 17, 2020, 09:15:52 AM
TX, then AZ for Trump is obvious.

NM votes Biden but probably not because of nativism. The majority of Hispanics in NM are from Spain long back, not from over the border.


No.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2020, 06:23:08 PM »
These threads are annoying and 40 different ways to say the same thing
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2020, 06:24:16 PM »
CA, AZ, and NM. Texas only in a landslide scenario which I don't see likely right now.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #21 on: September 17, 2020, 06:38:52 PM »
All but Texas.
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