NPC Elections - Rules and Results Thread

[OBD]

Pretty sure Sinn Fremont is standing now.

[OBD]

Sinn Frémont will stand for election in coalition with the Labor Party, pending approval from the Labor chair.

[OBD]

Any chance of getting another round of polling a week out? They really seem to draw activity to the elections and let the parties realise what they're doing right and what they're doing wrong. Not to mention they let parties better coordinate their campaigning.

haha damage control go brrrrrrrrrr

[OBD]

Closing the campaign period in about three hours. Good work all around, didn't quite expect to have to grade so many events in the last two days.

Are we gonna get a post-morteum again? I'm really curious about how some events affected the results...

[OBD]

Sinn Fremont will continue its alliance with Labor in all future elections unless stated otherwise.

[OBD]

In a debate, questions could be tailored to the specific issues that the states are dealing with during that month. If a party wishes to openly declare that they're willing to compromise outside of their usual national stance in order to appeal to a certain state's electorate, they can do it. It's not like showing a little bit of ideology would hurt Labor's bottom line anyway. 

And of course, it will let parties clarify the narrative when doing regular campaign events so that dishonest attacks can be highlighted since we've seen Labor attack other parties based on issues that are irrelevant to the game.

Bah. Y'all have done it too.

I won't speak for MB and party leadership but I do concur that this merely provides a platform for opposition parties to slander us, while also making tailoring campaigns for individual states impossible (as Scott said). Let's keep this NPC stuff to the campaign trail (though a reasonable compromise could be having Atlasia debates, such as the upcoming MB-Ninja Presidential debate, count for campaign points).

[OBD]

In a debate, questions could be tailored to the specific issues that the states are dealing with during that month. If a party wishes to openly declare that they're willing to compromise outside of their usual national stance in order to appeal to a certain state's electorate, they can do it. It's not like showing a little bit of ideology would hurt Labor's bottom line anyway. 

And of course, it will let parties clarify the narrative when doing regular campaign events so that dishonest attacks can be highlighted since we've seen Labor attack other parties based on issues that are irrelevant to the game.

Bah. Y'all have done it too.

I won't speak for MB and party leadership but I do concur that this merely provides a platform for opposition parties to slander us, while also making tailoring campaigns for individual states impossible (as Scott said). Let's keep this NPC stuff to the campaign trail (though a reasonable compromise could be having Atlasia debates, such as the upcoming MB-Ninja Presidential debate, count for campaign points).

If you feel the other parties attack Labor unfairly you should support this, no? Or we can all just devolve into attacks and slander with no chance the refute any of it since we're all campaigning in a bubble anyway.

If you're saying we should give you and the Federalists a platform to attack Labor with slanderous drivel from two fronts, I'd respectfully decline. Get a life.

[OBD]

Would really appreciate it if people could keep the partisan discussion out of this thread - and refrain from personal attacks period -, it literally has nothing to do with game mechanics. The mechanism itself will be allowed if people wish to use it.

Writing the post-mortem now.

Aye-aye, capt'n!

[OBD]

Is a polling update coming soon? Quite a bit has gone down since then.

[OBD]

Is a polling update coming soon? Quite a bit has gone down since then.

Coming tonight, currently grading speeches and performances.

Great! Thank you.

[OBD]

Thank you Lumine for the polls (a little disappointing, but still good to know)! On a somewhat related note, I made county maps for the NPC elections thus far. These obviously aren't canonical, but I think they're pretty cool and a (relatively) accurate representation of what went down. I have the July and August elections thus far (EDIT: Now fully updated!)



Please don't hesitate if you have any questions about my (statistically questionable) methodology. Generally, I took recent election results and adjusted them to both match the raw NPC numbers and better represent the different coalitions in Atlasia.

[OBD]

Thank you Lumine for the polls (a little disappointing, but still good to know)! On a somewhat related note, I made county maps for the NPC elections thus far. These obviously aren't canonical, but I think they're pretty cool and a (relatively) accurate representation of what went down. I have the July and August elections thus far (EDIT: Now fully updated!)

Please don't hesitate if you have any questions about my (statistically questionable) methodology. Generally, I took recent election results and adjusted them to both match the raw NPC numbers and better represent the different coalitions in Atlasia.

So, some quibbles with this map, first of all Southern whites still exist ITTL, so those Appalachia numbers are very unrealistic, especially since you have more cosmopolitan areas leaning conservative, even though those cosmopolitan areas have become more diverse and many of the whites there have college degrees. This is not a demographic open to right wing politics, especially not with the unique influence of social issues in politics here compared to the rest of the west. Even looking at economics, Missouri's rural areas voted against a Medicaid Expansion measure in this year's primary (same thing happened in OK, too), so rural areas aren't full of closet populists. Even with the usual caveats of this isn't IRL, these areas are simply gone even for left-wing economic policy. Even if you given them left-wing economic policy with right wing social policy, they won't bite when given the all conservative alternative. Even back when economics were more important, (1968 is honestly the last time that I think economics took prevalence over social, (maybe 1980, but that was also part foreign policy)), social issues were important to the South, especially on issues of segregation. Roe was probably another part of this shift as it kickstarted the evangelical right. They were of course met with opposition from northern liberals, the fact that recently our own Supreme Court was deeply divided and basically handed down a ruling equivalent to Casey, when they could have gone much further in either direction honestly, is a sign of this social polarization. Also if upstate NY flips no way, Westchester doesn't. It isn't just rich whites (which is the stereotype), places like Mount Vernon have a sizable African American vote (there's a reason why Engel lost Westchester in the IRL primary). Also again with Wisconsin, Milwaukee is at least 40% African American, it is flipping if Driftless flips. And one last note with New York, Rochester is not voting for a right wing party, full stop

I like the idea of having a map, but I think it could use some work, and this comment isn't just to you, it's a general comment towards everyone, especially since some people (you know who you are) have been fighting with me recently over this type of characterization of regional politics.

Okay, if Atlasia was actually as you said, we'd essentially have the Democratic-Republican coalition, and there'd be no way North Dakota'd be Harry S. Truman's personal North Korea while New York (state AND city!) vote for Federalist governance. A Labor strong in rurals and Federalists/DA strong in the suburbs is necessary for the coalitions to work out, and makes sense considering statewide results and the differences between these parties and OTL ones.

First off, while the point that Labor is more populist has already been belabored, the Federalists are also far more palatable to suburbs than Republicans. It's a near certainty that the #NeverTrump Lincoln Project voters are solid Federalist or DA voters in this timeline, and combined with Labor's more populist bent they would thus overperform in suburbs relative to OTL. Lastly, recall that nearly every county has a plurality result, so Labor could be winning West Virginia counties with around 35-40% of the vote, and considering many of said counties voted Manchin in 2018 it's not outrageous in the slightest.

I think individual county results can be debated, but I'm generally pretty confident in the general patterns of my map.

Thank you Lumine for the polls (a little disappointing, but still good to know)! On a somewhat related note, I made county maps for the NPC elections thus far. These obviously aren't canonical, but I think they're pretty cool and a (relatively) accurate representation of what went down. I have the July and August elections thus far (EDIT: Now fully updated!)

Excellent work! I greatly appreciate this type of effort and although my knowledge of US counties is very limited, from what I can ascertain there's some inspired guesses or general choices I'd agree with.

On a general sense, I would say that the overwhelming bulk of electoral factors in these NPC elections are all Atlasia-based (particularly in terms of previous results and current registration), and even though I make an effort to consider at least a few RL factors (and to take into account when players make clever attempts to work with those factors in campaigning), drawing direct parallels with the RL United States is probably going to be misleading given how different Atlasia is in the end.

Maybe it will be different if the whole NPC system both continues and survives into a GM successor with far more detailed US electoral knowledge than I (assuming, of course, he or she isn't horrified by my current methodology).

Thanks! IMO your system's working completely fine - Atlasian politics relative to IRL ones seem to have always been wonky, and no fair NPC system could change that lol

[OBD]

Campaigning is set to end on Friday, there will be a polling update late on late Monday/early Tuesday. Would have been ideal to do one this week, but a family member is terminally ill and I'm understandably rather bereft of motivation.

Sort of a follow up to this earlier issue, my grandmother passed away last night, so I'm taking a preemptive leave of absence as I won't have a lot of mental energy. Results on the October set will be calculated and posted at some point, but it most likely won't be on Saturday this time (depending on how things are going). In any case, another set of remarkable performances (campaigning ends tomorrow), good work!

Damn, my condolences. Take as much time as you need!

[OBD]

Can we get a clarification on the deadline? 12 AM EST passed 30 minutes ago but campaigning is still going on...?

[OBD]

Looking forward to making county maps for this election.

Should be a fun time.

[OBD]

Thanks for the results! That said, there appear to be errors in the Kentucky count, fyi.

[OBD]

Btw, a county map is in the works. Should be finished soonish.

[OBD]

Proud to present the new Atlasian NPC elections county map! It's now fully updated for this month's NPC elections (though I might attempt a Vermont precinct map, which could affect the accuracy of the county map).

Here's some tidbits of #analysis:
- Utah, Wyoming, and Montana are all LABOR LANDSLIDES. That said, the degree of landslide varies by state - in Utah, the more urbanized areas are stronger for Labor (thanks to Mormon support for Labor governance). Wyoming generally follows OTL lines. Lastly, Labor is strongest in West Montana, and ultimately cedes some strength to Federalists in East Montana. The Liberals generally have their performance masked behind Labor wins, but they do pull out a win in one Montana county.
- Missouri is fun. The rural north and south form the Federalist base here, but the Peace-Labor coalition holds strong in the cities and ancestrally Labor areas and makes inroads in the Federalist-leaning suburbs of Kansas City. The DA picks off a few rural counties on the Missouri River Runner's path.
- Kentucky is a strong Federalist performance, with the party of orange coming close to 50% statewide thanks to strong performances in the west and south, and a surprising plurality win in Louisville. The DA actually outperformed Labor here, and managed to win Lexington narrowly while performing well in the Cincy burbs. Labor, meanwhile, held Federalist numbers below 50% in Appalachia, while winning Elliot County with a near-majority.
- Texas is interesting. Labor ultimately won the election on the back of a strong Latino vote, running the table in the Rio Grande Valley amid record turnout. Labor also maintained historic strength in East Texas and the three major cities, while making inroads in the suburbs (though ultimately, Labor strength in Austin far outweighed it's support in Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio). The Federalists, meanwhile, could count on a strong (but not hyperpolarized) performance in the rurals, Hill Country, and the Dallas suburbs. The DA, overall, performed better in suburban areas, but managed to pick up Loving County due to a visit from prominent DAer Weatherboy.
- New Jersey is affected by New York being a Federalist/DA stronghold in this universe - North Jersey is very strong for the DA, who win the non-Newark/Jersey City suburban counties. Ultimately, their strong performance here lifts them to a second-place showing. Labor, meanwhile, shows strength primarily in South Jersey, in addition to islands of support from the working-class Newark areas. The Federalists are relegated to a third-place finish, but still finish strong in the state's historically conservative areas.
- Vermont: I might do more analysis here later if/when a precinct map is finished, but for now the state is generally a north-south divide between Liberals and Federalists.

EDIT:

By popular demand, I've made a precinct map for Vermont (this was surprisingly manageable). Labor and DA had pockets of support in southern Vermont and outer Burlington/Montpelier, respectively. Otherwise, the Federalists performed stronger in the north, sweeping the northeastern counties, while the Liberals did best in the towns (winning central Burlington with outright majorities) and the South.

[OBD]

Not to press, but is there a timeline on polling?

[OBD]

Not to press, but is there a timeline on polling?

Barring a miracle, not today. Hopefully soon, but I'm not in a position to give a firm ETA given the current backlog of stuff to do.

Alright, take your time!

[OBD]

Would a midmonth update be possible?

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There was a bit of a snafu with the ending time last round - it's currently 2:54 PM Pacific Time (and 5:54 PM according to my Atlas clock), so would it be accurate to say campaigning closes at 10PM Pacific Time, or about 7 hours from this post?

[OBD]

5 hours (and 13 minutes) left by my count. Friendly reminder that today's campaign events only recieve half the usual points.

Rule addition - Final Day

On the last day of campaigning, parties will be able to post up to 5 events (of any kind) and have them graded on a normal basis. Any extra campaigning will only recieve half the usual marks.

NOVEMBER 2020

CAMPAIGN PERIOD

Monday November 9th - Friday November 27th

UP FOR GRABS

New Mexico
Hawaii
Nebraska
Louisiana
Delaware
Florida
Pennsylvania
Maine
Northern Marianas
Chicago (Mayoral)

BALLOT ACCESS

NATIONAL PARTIES

1. Labor Party

Sinn Fremont (Fremont)
Beauty and Bread (Fremont)
Tricolor Party of Lincoln (Lincoln)

2. Federalist Party

3. Democratic Alliance

Atlasian Future Party (South)

4. Liberal Party

5. Peace Party

6. Green Party

REGIONAL PARTIES (Unaffiliated)
None.

CAMPAIGNING OPEN ACROSS THE BOARD

Wait a minute, don't the first 5 events a person posts get full credit?

[OBD]

Wait a minute, don't the first 5 events a person posts get full credit?

Yes, that's what I meant (do bear in mind it says "parties", not person)

Ack! While I'm not asking that you change the rule this time, I do ask that you consider changing it to "person" next time - while it's not possible for an individual to do 10 events in a day, it is totally reasonable for 5 such individuals to split up that itinerary, and it seems realistic that a party could do more than 5 quality events on the last day if it's divided between multiple people.

[OBD]

Just a quick clarification - will events after 12:00 AM EST count? Even if, say, they occurred just seconds after the deadline?