Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

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First closings in 1800 seconds.

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Oh god are we actually trying to extrapolate from early exits?

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R+191

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First call: Rs hold KY-05

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Donnelly leading in Vermillion County, with 1/17 precincts in. Lucy Brenton is in second place, with 40%, to 48% for Donnelly and 11% for Braun.

There’s no way that’s accurate, right?

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Didn’t Donnelly lose Allen to Mourdock?

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McGrath now up 8 with almost 40% in

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NYT seems to be quite slow tonight in terms of keeping up with the results. Is there a better news site for live, quicker results?

Yeah all the results sites seem to be horrible this year. Terrible interfaces on them and no county House results on NYT.

fwiw I can see county results at the bottom for KY-06 on NayT. Using my phone though.

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wtf is happening in Texas

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This is a weird election.

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Rosen up 10 in Washoe EV. Looks very good for her.

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Yeah, people here feeling very optimistic after that Washoe number.

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So it looks like MT and NV will go D...

Hoping for AZ

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So, uh.

WV-02 ended up being closer than WV-03.

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McBath is up over Handel again according to NYT. CNN as well.

Is it enough to avoid a runoff though?

Only 2 candidates. No one else to hold both below 50; there will be no runoff.

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Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".

That’s...in an hour, right?

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NYT calls it for Tester.

If this ends up at R +1 after all this, I’ll laugh.

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If this were a midterm with Hillary Clinton in the White House, could John James have pulled it out in Michigan?

Quite possibly.

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Why did so many states take forever to count their votes? Maine has only counted 85% of their votes. Nevada didn't start counting until 1:00. A lot of other states took forever.

I think I heard that Nevada was waiting for everyone to be finished voting.

Nevada was having reporting issues, I think. We were expecting the EV numbers to come in all at once and a lot sooner than they did.

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Looks like NM-2 may follow NJ-3 into the blue column.

XOCHITLMENTUM!!!!1111!!!1!

Looks like a reasonably good chance to break 230.

+40 probably isn’t happening, though.

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Could Golden still win in ME-02 with automatic runoff?

I think Golden’s favored, actually.

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I think we’re looking at around 232 seats, +/-1.

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Is there any chance for Dems in CA10/39/45? All the other uncalled races seem to be ticking towards Dems.

Harder(D) might actually still be favored in CA-10. Late/absentee usually leans quite a bit Dem in CA.

39 and 45 are tougher.

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The House keeps looking better and better for Dems. We could possibly reach 234.

I see 229-230. Where do you see those 4 extra

They won 224 and lead in 6. Of the seats they are currently behind in, they should win ME-02 and CA-10, and have a chance in CA-39, CA-45, and GA-07.

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Also:

There’s got to be an error there, right?

No way one district is way worse than everything else exactly on its borders.