Cook Report moves GA Senate race to "Toss Up"

[Flake]

Most pollsters are polling CO, La and NC where the Senate will be decided. I was simply stating the fact, since Sink failed to turn a red seat into a Democratic one, our best hope is holding the seats we have.

Most pollsters have said 4-5 seat net loss which is the median.

She is a terrible campaigner, just a bad candidate, she lead in the polls by 20% and lost by 3%.

By this logic Kentucky, should be lean D.

No, because McConnell has lead in some of the polls and he's not completely crazy, unlike some candidates in Georgia.

[Flake]

Silver currently sees GOP with 70% chance of winning GASen. That's better than KY and tied with AR.

To say that Pryor is as likely to win as Nunn is ludicrous.

Not sure which way you're going with it, but they're both within the margin of error in every single poll released thus far. Silver's work is obviously heavy on polling and there's not a lot of that yet - and we know his 2012 Senate results changed considerably between spring and fall - but the guy has a 96% success rate on Senate seats thus far.

By that logic, he should have both of them with a greater chance of victory. Instead, he uses his questionable 'state fundamentals' variable which has helped him blow some close races (see 2012 MT/ND). A 96% success rate isn't impressive. Calling close races correctly is impressive.

Again, Silver doesn't call races. Period. That's just not what he does. The idea that he has a "96% success rate so far" is absolutely an incorrect way to look at his record.

He gives a probability of each winning.  What makes him good is that 75% of the candidates he says have a 75% chance of winning end up winning.  If everyone he gives a 75% to wins, he's not good.

There was nothing "wrong" with him "missing" the ND race in 2012. He needs to be "wrong" 1 out of every 12-13 times he gives a 92% chance or else his probabilities aren't very accurate.

I hope your kidding. If you aren't, you just proved how useless Nate Silver is. What is the point of his model if not to "call" races. Why the hell have a model otherwise?

So political parties know where to put their money when candidates run?

[Flake]

I feel like joshgreen is a poster from that conservative forum that says all liberals are racist marxists and that polls are all skewed (and all election results are fake because the liberals changed the results), but his goal is trying to impersonate one after we discovered their lair of doom.