FL-27: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen to retire from Congress

[Virginiá]

Rick Scott is term limited in 2018.    After 2018 there would only be the 2020 election before redistricting anyway,  I really doubt they would draw a new map for 1 election.

Scott has claimed that in the literal 1-2 minute window where before he leaves office & the scotus justices are officially forced to retire, he can fill the seats, which means he can make the entire bench red.

I think it goes against the spirit of the rules, but whatever. Expecting most politicians - especially ones like Scott (or, say, most NC Republicans), to not be greasy hacks is way beyond the scope of reasonable thought at this point.

[Skill and Chance]

Rick Scott is term limited in 2018.    After 2018 there would only be the 2020 election before redistricting anyway,  I really doubt they would draw a new map for 1 election.

Scott has claimed that in the literal 1-2 minute window where before he leaves office & the scotus justices are officially forced to retire, he can fill the seats, which means he can make the entire bench red.

I think it goes against the spirit of the rules, but whatever. Expecting most politicians - especially ones like Scott (or, say, most NC Republicans), to not be greasy hacks is way beyond the scope of reasonable thought at this point.

Well, that would obviously lead to a lawsuit.  Let's see where that goes.  Would the existing justices refuse to swear the new ones in until after it was resolved? 

Also, if Dems can finally pick up FL-GOV next year, none of this will matter for redistricting anyway.

[Virginiá]

Well, that would obviously lead to a lawsuit.  Let's see where that goes.  Would the existing justices refuse to swear the new ones in until after it was resolved? 

That would be interesting. It would only leave 4 justices to hear the case, all of whom would be Republicans. Not entirely convinced that bodes well for it.

Also, if Dems can finally pick up FL-GOV next year, none of this will matter for redistricting anyway.

afaik it would for legislative districts, whose maps cannot be vetoed. The best option would be for Democrats to get independent commission initiative(s) on the ballot for 2020. At that point, FL would have a pretty sound redistricting process, assuming the commission setup is well-designed.

I believe part of the Democrat's strategy for next redistricting is to use ballot initiatives where possible to level the playing field. If the worst case scenario happens in FL (GOP gov & all GOP Supreme Court), I could see Democrats pushing a commission initiative here. They would be foolish not to.

[krazen1211]

Rick Scott is term limited in 2018.    After 2018 there would only be the 2020 election before redistricting anyway,  I really doubt they would draw a new map for 1 election.

Scott has claimed that in the literal 1-2 minute window where before he leaves office & the scotus justices are officially forced to retire, he can fill the seats, which means he can make the entire bench red.

I think it goes against the spirit of the rules, but whatever. Expecting most politicians - especially ones like Scott (or, say, most NC Republicans), to not be greasy hacks is way beyond the scope of reasonable thought at this point.

Well, that would obviously lead to a lawsuit.  Let's see where that goes.  Would the existing justices refuse to swear the new ones in until after it was resolved?  

Also, if Dems can finally pick up FL-GOV next year, none of this will matter for redistricting anyway.

It's almost as if we have precedent....such as Democrat Lawton Chiles nominating 2 judges after his party lost the 1998 election!

Of course, Rick Scott is a great man and has been preparing for his moment. The nominating commission will put forward great candidates.

Nowadays, the nominating commission is mostly chosen by the governor. And Great Rick Scott has been slamming down lists full of good for nothing leftists. The groundwork has been laid.

[Cynthia]

Wifredo Ferrer would make a good candidate IMO.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I was expecting this, honestly. A potential tough reelection battle only to have to deal with Trump for another two years... not appealing.

I'd rate this Tilt/Lean D to start out.

[krazen1211]

The Democrat will win this seat for now. But soon rick scott will make appointments to the fl supremergency court and there will be wonderful gerrymandering.

Rick Scott is term limited in 2018.    After 2018 there would only be the 2020 election before redistricting anyway,  I really doubt they would draw a new map for 1 election.

Perhaps. The major issue is that Florida will be gaining 1-2 new Congressional districts in the 2020 census. So I suspect the legislature will create new Republican districts, fortify existing ones, and also dissolve some of the Democrat districts.

It's possible we could see a white VRA district in Palm Beach/Broward/Dade counties similar to the old district  held by E. Clay Shaw.

[Skill and Chance]

Rick Scott is term limited in 2018.    After 2018 there would only be the 2020 election before redistricting anyway,  I really doubt they would draw a new map for 1 election.

Scott has claimed that in the literal 1-2 minute window where before he leaves office & the scotus justices are officially forced to retire, he can fill the seats, which means he can make the entire bench red.

I think it goes against the spirit of the rules, but whatever. Expecting most politicians - especially ones like Scott (or, say, most NC Republicans), to not be greasy hacks is way beyond the scope of reasonable thought at this point.

Well, that would obviously lead to a lawsuit.  Let's see where that goes.  Would the existing justices refuse to swear the new ones in until after it was resolved?  

Also, if Dems can finally pick up FL-GOV next year, none of this will matter for redistricting anyway.

It's almost as if we have precedent....such as Democrat Lawton Chiles nominating 2 judges after his party lost the 1998 election!

Of course, Rick Scott is a great man and has been preparing for his moment. The nominating commission will put forward great candidates.

Nowadays, the nominating commission is mostly chosen by the governor. And Great Rick Scott has been slamming down lists full of good for nothing leftists. The groundwork has been laid.

Tell that to Obama.

[krazen1211]

It's almost as if we have precedent....such as Democrat Lawton Chiles nominating 2 judges after his party lost the 1998 election!

Of course, Rick Scott is a great man and has been preparing for his moment. The nominating commission will put forward great candidates.

Nowadays, the nominating commission is mostly chosen by the governor. And Great Rick Scott has been slamming down lists full of good for nothing leftists. The groundwork has been laid.

Tell that to Obama.

I am confused. Is this referring to Mitch McConnell stealing a Supreme Court seat? There's precedent for that too, such as Andrew Johnson.

More to the point, the Florida Supreme Court has a quorum of 5 members. So a 4 member court cannot even hear your hypothetical lawsuit....I guess you could try your luck elsewhere but even the lower appeals courts are full of Scott appointments from the Federalist Society?

Rick Scott has been playing amazing 3d Chess to be sure. Maybe a Democrat could actually win an election in Florida (lol?), but legislative maps cannot be vetoed and congressional maps can be overridden.

I suspect in that unlikely scenario one or two Democrat legislators will be offered financial considerations or perhaps a Congressional seat for their support of a veto override. Quite similar to how Jay Nixon's veto of Congressional redistricting was overridden by the Missouri legislature in 2011.

A Smart 3d Chess play leaves himself many moves to enact gerrymandering.

[KingSweden]

It's almost as if we have precedent....such as Democrat Lawton Chiles nominating 2 judges after his party lost the 1998 election!

Of course, Rick Scott is a great man and has been preparing for his moment. The nominating commission will put forward great candidates.

Nowadays, the nominating commission is mostly chosen by the governor. And Great Rick Scott has been slamming down lists full of good for nothing leftists. The groundwork has been laid.

Tell that to Obama.

I am confused. Is this referring to Mitch McConnell stealing a Supreme Court seat? There's precedent for that too, such as Andrew Johnson.

More to the point, the Florida Supreme Court has a quorum of 5 members. So a 4 member court cannot even hear your hypothetical lawsuit....I guess you could try your luck elsewhere but even the lower appeals courts are full of Scott appointments from the Federalist Society?

Rick Scott has been playing amazing 3d Chess to be sure. Maybe a Democrat could actually win an election in Florida (lol?), but legislative maps cannot be vetoed and congressional maps can be overridden.

I suspect in that unlikely scenario one or two Democrat legislators will be offered financial considerations or perhaps a Congressional seat for their support of a veto override. Quite similar to how Jay Nixon's veto of Congressional redistricting was overridden by the Missouri legislature in 2011.

A Smart 3d Chess play leaves himself many moves to enact gerrymandering.

Why do you have such a hard-on for gerrymandering? It's a terrible practice that prevents both parties from reconciling themselves with the average voter, instead pandering to increasingly extreme slices of the electorate in ultra-safe seats. It isn't good for the Democrats OR the GOP. The vagaries of the House favor the Republican Party regardless, it's not like they would need a gerrymandered map to win a majority (albeit probably a slightly narrower one than they have now).

[brucejoel99]

Rick Scott is term limited in 2018.    After 2018 there would only be the 2020 election before redistricting anyway,  I really doubt they would draw a new map for 1 election.

Scott has claimed that in the literal 1-2 minute window where before he leaves office & the scotus justices are officially forced to retire, he can fill the seats, which means he can make the entire bench red.

I think it goes against the spirit of the rules, but whatever. Expecting most politicians - especially ones like Scott (or, say, most NC Republicans), to not be greasy hacks is way beyond the scope of reasonable thought at this point.

Well, that would obviously lead to a lawsuit.  Let's see where that goes.  Would the existing justices refuse to swear the new ones in until after it was resolved?  

Also, if Dems can finally pick up FL-GOV next year, none of this will matter for redistricting anyway.

It's almost as if we have precedent....such as Democrat Lawton Chiles nominating 2 judges after his party lost the 1998 election!

Of course, Rick Scott is a great man and has been preparing for his moment. The nominating commission will put forward great candidates.

Nowadays, the nominating commission is mostly chosen by the governor. And Great Rick Scott has been slamming down lists full of good for nothing leftists. The groundwork has been laid.

R. Fred Lewis was appointed by Chiles & seated as a Justice in December 1998 (during the term to which Chiles, & nobody else, was elected) b/c the Justice he was succeeding, Gerald Kogan, chose to retire prior to to beginning of Jeb Bush's gubernatorial term (giving Chiles the full right to appoint).

Peggy Quince is the only Supreme Court Justice in FL history to be appointed simultaneously by more than one Governor. B/c her term began the exact moment that Governor-elect Jeb Bush assumed his office (due to outgoing Justice Ben Overton's desire to stay in office until the moment his mandatory retirement took effect), in order to avoid potential future controversy over her appointment, Bush worked out a joint agreement w/ lame duck Governor Chiles whereby they both agreed upon & jointly announced Quince's appointment in December 1998. While some politicians squabble & sue for power, Lawton Chiles & Jeb Bush decided to share it. The result: a first-rate FL Supreme Court Justice, & a welcome example of bipartisan cooperation, civility & unity.

So, tell me, where in the 2 examples you've provided is there "precedent" for Scott solely having the right to replace Justices Barbara Pariente, Lewis & Quince on the morning of Jan. 8, 2019, considering that the terms of the Governor & the Justices end at exactly the same time?? A new governor will be inaugurated the same day &, in fact, there's actually precedent for the fact that Scott can't solely replace the Justices: In 2006, the FL Supreme Court ruled that judicial nominating commissions could begin interviewing prior to a judicial vacancy occurring, but an appointment by the Governor could not be made until after the Justice's term expired. The court stated, "[T]here is a specific constitutional provision that expressly provides that a vacancy in a merit retention judicial office does not occur until the end of the judge or justice's term." The Justices said the Constitution was "clear and unambiguous" on the matter. Since judicial vacancies may occur on the same day that a new governor takes office (as will be the case in January 2019), the court's ruling essentially authorizes the newly sworn-in Governor to fill those vacancies, rather than the outgoing Governor.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Newsflash: Dems are weak as heck on the local level in Florida. We won't be winning the governorship in 2018. We have come close several times, but no cigar, and this time won't be different. The dems have very weak potentials while the republicans have very strong potentials. The state is battleground in presidential elections, and lean D with Bill Nelson's seat, but besides that, Florida is a ruby red state on all other levels.

[Nyvin]

Newsflash: Dems are weak as heck on the local level in Florida. We won't be winning the governorship in 2018. We have come close several times, but no cigar, and this time won't be different. The dems have very weak potentials while the republicans have very strong potentials. The state is battleground in presidential elections, and lean D with Bill Nelson's seat, but besides that, Florida is a ruby red state on all other levels.

Gwen Graham is absolutely capable of winning the Governor's seat in 2018.  

Granted,  the FL Dem party's clownish and inept reputation is a valid concern.  

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Newsflash: Dems are weak as heck on the local level in Florida. We won't be winning the governorship in 2018. We have come close several times, but no cigar, and this time won't be different. The dems have very weak potentials while the republicans have very strong potentials. The state is battleground in presidential elections, and lean D with Bill Nelson's seat, but besides that, Florida is a ruby red state on all other levels.

Gwen Graham is absolutely capable of winning the Governor's seat in 2018.  

Granted,  the FL Dem party's clownish and inept reputation is a valid concern.  

She is definitely the best shot at it, and I am a fan of hers, but the way she dropped the mic and left office was cringy.

[Figueira]

I'm torn between calling this Lean and Likely D. This kind of reminds me of a reverse UT-04, actually.

[Donerail]

Newsflash: Dems are weak as heck on the local level in Florida. We won't be winning the governorship in 2018.

Your defeatism is charming and unproductive.

[Brittain33]

I didn't realize that Murphy beat Rubio in this seat. Likely D, unless Dems can't find a candidate.

[DrScholl]

Newsflash: Dems are weak as heck on the local level in Florida. We won't be winning the governorship in 2018.

Your defeatism is charming and unproductive.

That poster seems to do a lot of concern trolling (that's the best term that comes to mind).

[Miles]

Newsflash: Dems are weak as heck on the local level in Florida. We won't be winning the governorship in 2018. We have come close several times, but no cigar, and this time won't be different. The dems have very weak potentials while the republicans have very strong potentials. The state is battleground in presidential elections, and lean D with Bill Nelson's seat, but besides that, Florida is a ruby red state on all other levels.

Gwen Graham is absolutely capable of winning the Governor's seat in 2018.  

Granted,  the FL Dem party's clownish and inept reputation is a valid concern.  

She is definitely the best shot at it, and I am a fan of hers, but the way she dropped the mic and left office was cringy.

She wasn't going to win a 65% Romney district.

[Brittain33]

Let's stay on-topic, please. --Mod

[Dereich]

IRL's compassion for transgendered people was only matched by her zealously rabid defense of Israel.

And Cuba firsters.

She was also the main advocate against Chinese persecution of the Falun Gong, for what its worth.

[MAINEiac4434]

This seat is going D unless it's a bad year for the Dems or the candidate is like Alan Grayson or something. Murphy beat Rubio here for god's sake.

[peterthlee]

US Falun Gong practitioners will be very upset.
By the way, D+1.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Great news for Dems. Seat is a toss-up though, waiting to see if who Republicans put up for the seat.

[The_Doctor]

Ignore Krazen. He's trying to rile you up and if you want his actual opinions read RRH. Or ask him what his RRH post on the subject is. I'm pretty sure I could find him on a few other center right blogs where he's less “incendiary.” He's actually a lot more cautious which is your tell about the behavior.

Anyway this seat now goes to the Democrats and most likely whether the seat stays Democratic hinges on the governorship in 2018. Federal office is more partisan than state office. So, Democrats in WV can win the governorship but they suck on federal races.