OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Karpatsky]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/style/wp/2018/04/09/feature/the-vindication-of-dennis-kucinich

WAPO eating up Kucinich's attempt to portray himself as the proto-Bernie.

Barf. I have a number of disagreements with Sanders but he’s not on RT ranting about the Deep State. There is no comparison.

Well, that's the point. K is painting himself as some sort of progressive hero despite what he's done.

[BuckeyeNut]

DeWine urged Speaker Rosenberger to quit.

[Alabama_Indy10]

The son of Kucinich's LG pick, Tara Samples, arrested for threatening to kill cops.

http://www.wkyc.com/article/news/politics/son-of-akron-city-councilwoman-tara-samples-in-custody-after-threatening-police/95-536461584

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/local/gop-warren-davidson-kucinich-would-better-governor-than-cordray/ThA8i0s4Oa3kRuBOCMTHBN/

Statement from Mike Gwin: Cordray "took on big banks and financial institutions to return $12 billion to more than 30 million Americans who had been cheated or mistreated. Standing up to special interests won’t make you popular in Washington — either with them or with the members of Congress like Rep. Davidson that they shower with political contributions — but it was the right thing to do, and it’ll be the exact approach Rich will take as governor."

I think I'm quoting Sam Seaborn here by saying "This is the kind of stuff we used to throw around in the primary!" (Hopefully a WW fan with better memory can get that joke a bit more accurate then me...)

[KingSweden]

The son of Kucinich's LG pick, Tara Samples, arrested for threatening to kill cops.

http://www.wkyc.com/article/news/politics/son-of-akron-city-councilwoman-tara-samples-in-custody-after-threatening-police/95-536461584

This is going well

[Landslide Lyndon]

The son of Kucinich's LG pick, Tara Samples, arrested for threatening to kill cops.

http://www.wkyc.com/article/news/politics/son-of-akron-city-councilwoman-tara-samples-in-custody-after-threatening-police/95-536461584

This is going well

Obviously the Deep State is out to get him.

[Ohioguy29]

Term-limited House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger has hired a defense attorney and may be under FBI investigation. Conservative upstart blog Third Rail Politics claims caucus member may soon be calling for his resignation. Some potentially related background: There is an ugly fight brewing within the House GOP to decide who will he the next Speaker — or maybe, if Democrats pitch a perfect game, Minority Leader.

Is Democratic control of the Ohio House even remotely in the cards?

It is possible. I count 15 winnable House seats and another 10 Very-Unlikely-But-Not-Impossible-Seats. A 15 seat flip takes us from 33 D, 66 R to 48 D, 51 R. A very unlikely but not impossible 25 seat flip would be 58 D, 41 R.

Which seats have you identified as winnable and unlikely-but-not-impossible? I have my own ideas, I'd like to see how your compare.

[BuckeyeNut]

Amid FBI investigation.

[BuckeyeNut]

Term-limited House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger has hired a defense attorney and may be under FBI investigation. Conservative upstart blog Third Rail Politics claims caucus member may soon be calling for his resignation. Some potentially related background: There is an ugly fight brewing within the House GOP to decide who will he the next Speaker — or maybe, if Democrats pitch a perfect game, Minority Leader.

Is Democratic control of the Ohio House even remotely in the cards?

It is possible. I count 15 winnable House seats and another 10 Very-Unlikely-But-Not-Impossible-Seats. A 15 seat flip takes us from 33 D, 66 R to 48 D, 51 R. A very unlikely but not impossible 25 seat flip would be 58 D, 41 R.

Which seats have you identified as winnable and unlikely-but-not-impossible? I have my own ideas, I'd like to see how your compare.

Uh, let's see...

OH-41
OH-42
OH-48
OH-61
OH-67
OH-71
OH-73
OH-90
OH-96

That's 9. I must have miscounted earlier or forgotten one...

[Ohioguy29]

Term-limited House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger has hired a defense attorney and may be under FBI investigation. Conservative upstart blog Third Rail Politics claims caucus member may soon be calling for his resignation. Some potentially related background: There is an ugly fight brewing within the House GOP to decide who will he the next Speaker — or maybe, if Democrats pitch a perfect game, Minority Leader.

Is Democratic control of the Ohio House even remotely in the cards?

It is possible. I count 15 winnable House seats and another 10 Very-Unlikely-But-Not-Impossible-Seats. A 15 seat flip takes us from 33 D, 66 R to 48 D, 51 R. A very unlikely but not impossible 25 seat flip would be 58 D, 41 R.

Which seats have you identified as winnable and unlikely-but-not-impossible? I have my own ideas, I'd like to see how your compare.

Uh, let's see...

OH-41
OH-42
OH-48
OH-61
OH-67
OH-71
OH-73
OH-90
OH-96

That's 9. I must have miscounted earlier or forgotten one...

And what are the 15 winnable ones? Also we already have OH-96; that's Jack Cera's seat. Perhaps you're thinking of OH-95, the one Dan Milleson is running for.

[BuckeyeNut]

Term-limited House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger has hired a defense attorney and may be under FBI investigation. Conservative upstart blog Third Rail Politics claims caucus member may soon be calling for his resignation. Some potentially related background: There is an ugly fight brewing within the House GOP to decide who will he the next Speaker — or maybe, if Democrats pitch a perfect game, Minority Leader.

Is Democratic control of the Ohio House even remotely in the cards?

It is possible. I count 15 winnable House seats and another 10 Very-Unlikely-But-Not-Impossible-Seats. A 15 seat flip takes us from 33 D, 66 R to 48 D, 51 R. A very unlikely but not impossible 25 seat flip would be 58 D, 41 R.

Which seats have you identified as winnable and unlikely-but-not-impossible? I have my own ideas, I'd like to see how your compare.

Uh, let's see...

OH-41
OH-42
OH-48
OH-61
OH-67
OH-71
OH-73
OH-90
OH-96

That's 9. I must have miscounted earlier or forgotten one...

And what are the 15 winnable ones? Also we already have OH-96; that's Jack Cera's seat. Perhaps you're thinking of OH-95, the one Dan Milleson is running for.

I actually meant the 98th. But my math was using an older set of rankings that I updated recently and then forgot about.

I think there are 24 winnable Lean D to (presently) Likely R seats, and then 9 Very Likely R seats on top of that. The Very Likely R seats are more likely to become Safe R than Likely R, but I don't think they can be entirely ruled out. Those 24 seats Likely R to Lean D seats are:

OH-03
OH-05
OH-06
OH-07
OH-19
OH-21
OH-23
OH-24
OH-27
OH-28
OH-36
OH-37
OH-38
OH-50
OH-16
OH-40
OH-43
OH-55
OH-79
OH-88
OH-89
OH-92

And the previously mentioned OH-95.

So I guess in a truly massive wave, we could go from 33 D, 66 R to 64 D, 35 R. But I'd be speechless if that happened. What're your thoughts?

[Ohioguy29]

Term-limited House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger has hired a defense attorney and may be under FBI investigation. Conservative upstart blog Third Rail Politics claims caucus member may soon be calling for his resignation. Some potentially related background: There is an ugly fight brewing within the House GOP to decide who will he the next Speaker — or maybe, if Democrats pitch a perfect game, Minority Leader.

Is Democratic control of the Ohio House even remotely in the cards?

It is possible. I count 15 winnable House seats and another 10 Very-Unlikely-But-Not-Impossible-Seats. A 15 seat flip takes us from 33 D, 66 R to 48 D, 51 R. A very unlikely but not impossible 25 seat flip would be 58 D, 41 R.

Which seats have you identified as winnable and unlikely-but-not-impossible? I have my own ideas, I'd like to see how your compare.

Uh, let's see...

OH-41
OH-42
OH-48
OH-61
OH-67
OH-71
OH-73
OH-90
OH-96

That's 9. I must have miscounted earlier or forgotten one...

And what are the 15 winnable ones? Also we already have OH-96; that's Jack Cera's seat. Perhaps you're thinking of OH-95, the one Dan Milleson is running for.

I actually meant the 98th. But my math was using an older set of rankings that I updated recently and then forgot about.

I think there are 24 winnable Lean D to (presently) Likely R seats, and then 9 Very Likely R seats on top of that. The Very Likely R seats are more likely to become Safe R than Likely R, but I don't think they can be entirely ruled out. Those 24 seats Likely R to Lean D seats are:

OH-03
OH-05
OH-06
OH-07
OH-19
OH-21
OH-23
OH-24
OH-27
OH-28
OH-36
OH-37
OH-38
OH-50
OH-16
OH-40
OH-43
OH-55
OH-79
OH-88
OH-89
OH-92

And the previously mentioned OH-95.

So I guess in a truly massive wave, we could go from 33 D, 66 R to 64 D, 35 R. But I'd be speechless if that happened. What're your thoughts?

Good list, you're looking at a lot of the same districts I'm looking at. I agree that 95 belongs here and not the other list. You accidentally left out 94 (Sappington vs. Edwards.) I also question why you put 90 on the "longshot" list while at the same time including districts like 50 on this one. But altogether you clearly know your stuff. You even have noticed some of the "quite red, but with an exceptional candidate" districts like 71.

[BuckeyeNut]

Term-limited House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger has hired a defense attorney and may be under FBI investigation. Conservative upstart blog Third Rail Politics claims caucus member may soon be calling for his resignation. Some potentially related background: There is an ugly fight brewing within the House GOP to decide who will he the next Speaker — or maybe, if Democrats pitch a perfect game, Minority Leader.

Is Democratic control of the Ohio House even remotely in the cards?

It is possible. I count 15 winnable House seats and another 10 Very-Unlikely-But-Not-Impossible-Seats. A 15 seat flip takes us from 33 D, 66 R to 48 D, 51 R. A very unlikely but not impossible 25 seat flip would be 58 D, 41 R.

Which seats have you identified as winnable and unlikely-but-not-impossible? I have my own ideas, I'd like to see how your compare.

Uh, let's see...

OH-41
OH-42
OH-48
OH-61
OH-67
OH-71
OH-73
OH-90
OH-96

That's 9. I must have miscounted earlier or forgotten one...

And what are the 15 winnable ones? Also we already have OH-96; that's Jack Cera's seat. Perhaps you're thinking of OH-95, the one Dan Milleson is running for.

I actually meant the 98th. But my math was using an older set of rankings that I updated recently and then forgot about.

I think there are 24 winnable Lean D to (presently) Likely R seats, and then 9 Very Likely R seats on top of that. The Very Likely R seats are more likely to become Safe R than Likely R, but I don't think they can be entirely ruled out. Those 24 seats Likely R to Lean D seats are:

OH-03
OH-05
OH-06
OH-07
OH-19
OH-21
OH-23
OH-24
OH-27
OH-28
OH-36
OH-37
OH-38
OH-50
OH-16
OH-40
OH-43
OH-55
OH-79
OH-88
OH-89
OH-92

And the previously mentioned OH-95.

So I guess in a truly massive wave, we could go from 33 D, 66 R to 64 D, 35 R. But I'd be speechless if that happened. What're your thoughts?

Good list, you're looking at a lot of the same districts I'm looking at. I agree that 95 belongs here and not the other list. You accidentally left out 94 (Sappington vs. Edwards.) I also question why you put 90 on the "longshot" list while at the same time including districts like 50 on this one. But altogether you clearly know your stuff. You even have noticed some of the "quite red, but with an exceptional candidate" districts like 71.

Derp. I did forget the 94th. That is definitely on my list.

My rankings accounted for several variables: whether the seat was open, Democratic Performance Index, the last time it went for a Democrat during the Presidential election, and candidate viability.

71 is interesting. We should get an idea of what OHDC is targetting soon. I hope they don't go all in Romney-Clinton in the various suburbs. There are still some great opportunities with good candidates in Obama-Trump districts.

Not that 71 went for either Obama or Clinton, but I think they have a good candidate running, and I'm assuming Cordray gets the nod. Cordray's strength in the Franklin County ring counties at the top of the ticket, plus the midterm environment, plus their strong #resistance movement could be the perfect storm for Jeremy Blake.

[Ohioguy29]

Term-limited House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger has hired a defense attorney and may be under FBI investigation. Conservative upstart blog Third Rail Politics claims caucus member may soon be calling for his resignation. Some potentially related background: There is an ugly fight brewing within the House GOP to decide who will he the next Speaker — or maybe, if Democrats pitch a perfect game, Minority Leader.

Is Democratic control of the Ohio House even remotely in the cards?

It is possible. I count 15 winnable House seats and another 10 Very-Unlikely-But-Not-Impossible-Seats. A 15 seat flip takes us from 33 D, 66 R to 48 D, 51 R. A very unlikely but not impossible 25 seat flip would be 58 D, 41 R.

Which seats have you identified as winnable and unlikely-but-not-impossible? I have my own ideas, I'd like to see how your compare.

Uh, let's see...

OH-41
OH-42
OH-48
OH-61
OH-67
OH-71
OH-73
OH-90
OH-96

That's 9. I must have miscounted earlier or forgotten one...

And what are the 15 winnable ones? Also we already have OH-96; that's Jack Cera's seat. Perhaps you're thinking of OH-95, the one Dan Milleson is running for.

I actually meant the 98th. But my math was using an older set of rankings that I updated recently and then forgot about.

I think there are 24 winnable Lean D to (presently) Likely R seats, and then 9 Very Likely R seats on top of that. The Very Likely R seats are more likely to become Safe R than Likely R, but I don't think they can be entirely ruled out. Those 24 seats Likely R to Lean D seats are:

OH-03
OH-05
OH-06
OH-07
OH-19
OH-21
OH-23
OH-24
OH-27
OH-28
OH-36
OH-37
OH-38
OH-50
OH-16
OH-40
OH-43
OH-55
OH-79
OH-88
OH-89
OH-92

And the previously mentioned OH-95.

So I guess in a truly massive wave, we could go from 33 D, 66 R to 64 D, 35 R. But I'd be speechless if that happened. What're your thoughts?

Good list, you're looking at a lot of the same districts I'm looking at. I agree that 95 belongs here and not the other list. You accidentally left out 94 (Sappington vs. Edwards.) I also question why you put 90 on the "longshot" list while at the same time including districts like 50 on this one. But altogether you clearly know your stuff. You even have noticed some of the "quite red, but with an exceptional candidate" districts like 71.

Derp. I did forget the 94th. That is definitely on my list.

My rankings accounted for several variables: whether the seat was open, Democratic Performance Index, the last time it went for a Democrat during the Presidential election, and candidate viability.

71 is interesting. We should get an idea of what OHDC is targetting soon. I hope they don't go all in Romney-Clinton in the various suburbs. There are still some great opportunities with good candidates in Obama-Trump districts.

Not that 71 went for either Obama or Clinton, but I think they have a good candidate running, and I'm assuming Cordray gets the nod. Cordray's strength in the Franklin County ring counties at the top of the ticket, plus the midterm environment, plus their strong #resistance movement could be the perfect storm for Jeremy Blake.

It's not like I have deeply specific ideas on the likelihood of most flips. I mostly go for a binary flippable/unflippable look at things.

I really hope they don't go for suburbs either. We can't win on Romney-Clinton alone, especially not in Ohio! And considering how open to Democrats a lot of Trump country is, it would be stupid to not focus on those seats. I also, on a personal level, don't want a party that's centered around bougie suburbanites.

I'm watching Jeremy Blake's campaign with great interest. What do you think of district 2? Definitely unlikely, but it's also in central Ohio and Lane Winters intrigues me regardless of his chances.

[BuckeyeNut]

It's not like I have deeply specific ideas on the likelihood of most flips. I mostly go for a binary flippable/unflippable look at things.

I really hope they don't go for suburbs either. We can't win on Romney-Clinton alone, especially not in Ohio! And considering how open to Democrats a lot of Trump country is, it would be stupid to not focus on those seats. I also, on a personal level, don't want a party that's centered around bougie suburbanites.

I'm watching Jeremy Blake's campaign with great interest. What do you think of district 2? Definitely unlikely, but it's also in central Ohio and Lane Winters intrigues me regardless of his chances.

(Snipping the backlog so the quote-chain doesn't get too long.)

I have a fairly developed system that goes from Very Likely R to Lean D. 2 Lean D, 4 Tossups, 8 Lean R, 10 Likely R, and 9 Very Likely R.

Like you, I don't want a suburban strategy, we're definitely going for those Clinton-Romney seats. By my metric, 16 of the 33 winnable seats are wholly or partially in Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, and Summit Counties alone: 2 of 9 Very Likely R, 5 of 10 Likely R, 5 of 8 Lean R and all 4 Tossups. (Interestingly, the two Lean D seats are both rural.) The real question is: how will OHDC allocate resources? As I said earlier, hopefully, we'll know soon.

I sadly think OH-02 is Safe R. If it was open this year, I think it could go into the (Very) Likely R category. Sherrod was able to carry his old stomping grounds back in '06, but I don't think he'll be doing that again this year. Winters seems like a decent candidate, though. Assuming he fails, he could be a good future candidate for more local office. We really need to start cutting into these all Republican County Commissions.

[Ohioguy29]

(Snipping the backlog so the quote-chain doesn't get too long.)

I have a fairly developed system that goes from Very Likely R to Lean D. 2 Lean D, 4 Tossups, 8 Lean R, 10 Likely R, and 9 Very Likely R.

Like you, I don't want a suburban strategy, we're definitely going for those Clinton-Romney seats. By my metric, 16 of the 33 winnable seats are wholly or partially in Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, and Summit Counties alone: 2 of 9 Very Likely R, 5 of 10 Likely R, 5 of 8 Lean R and all 4 Tossups. (Interestingly, the two Lean D seats are both rural.) The real question is: how will OHDC allocate resources? As I said earlier, hopefully, we'll know soon.

I sadly think OH-02 is Safe R. If it was open this year, I think it could go into the (Very) Likely R category. Sherrod was able to carry his old stomping grounds back in '06, but I don't think he'll be doing that again this year. Winters seems like a decent candidate, though. Assuming he fails, he could be a good future candidate for more local office. We really need to start cutting into these all Republican County Commissions.

Let me rephrase, I don't want us to focus almost entirely on suburban seats. It would be insane to ignore the Romney-Clinton seats in the suburbs though (not that all suburban districts moved towards Clinton, as I'm sure you know, especially in northeast Ohio.)

What are your two lean D seats? I'm not surprised they're rural; there's plenty of blue/purple/ancestral Dem rural areas in Ohio.

We definitely do need to win more seats in local government. In Hamilton County it looks like there's a good chance of getting rid of Chris Monzel, which is important considering the Todd Portune retirement rumors.

[BuckeyeNut]

(Snipping the backlog so the quote-chain doesn't get too long.)

I have a fairly developed system that goes from Very Likely R to Lean D. 2 Lean D, 4 Tossups, 8 Lean R, 10 Likely R, and 9 Very Likely R.

Like you, I don't want a suburban strategy, we're definitely going for those Clinton-Romney seats. By my metric, 16 of the 33 winnable seats are wholly or partially in Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, and Summit Counties alone: 2 of 9 Very Likely R, 5 of 10 Likely R, 5 of 8 Lean R and all 4 Tossups. (Interestingly, the two Lean D seats are both rural.) The real question is: how will OHDC allocate resources? As I said earlier, hopefully, we'll know soon.

I sadly think OH-02 is Safe R. If it was open this year, I think it could go into the (Very) Likely R category. Sherrod was able to carry his old stomping grounds back in '06, but I don't think he'll be doing that again this year. Winters seems like a decent candidate, though. Assuming he fails, he could be a good future candidate for more local office. We really need to start cutting into these all Republican County Commissions.

Let me rephrase, I don't want us to focus almost entirely on suburban seats. It would be insane to ignore the Romney-Clinton seats in the suburbs though (not that all suburban districts moved towards Clinton, as I'm sure you know, especially in northeast Ohio.)

What are your two lean D seats? I'm not surprised they're rural; there's plenty of blue/purple/ancestral Dem rural areas in Ohio.

We definitely do need to win more seats in local government. In Hamilton County it looks like there's a good chance of getting rid of Chris Monzel, which is important considering the Todd Portune retirement rumors.

OH-94 and OH-89. Feel more confident about the 89th than the 94th for now. I look forward to the next fundraising report that should come in May. Could seriously alter my rankings.

Pillich seems likey to take on Commissioner if and when Portune leaves, IMO.

[Ohioguy29]

(Snipping the backlog so the quote-chain doesn't get too long.)

I have a fairly developed system that goes from Very Likely R to Lean D. 2 Lean D, 4 Tossups, 8 Lean R, 10 Likely R, and 9 Very Likely R.

Like you, I don't want a suburban strategy, we're definitely going for those Clinton-Romney seats. By my metric, 16 of the 33 winnable seats are wholly or partially in Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, and Summit Counties alone: 2 of 9 Very Likely R, 5 of 10 Likely R, 5 of 8 Lean R and all 4 Tossups. (Interestingly, the two Lean D seats are both rural.) The real question is: how will OHDC allocate resources? As I said earlier, hopefully, we'll know soon.

I sadly think OH-02 is Safe R. If it was open this year, I think it could go into the (Very) Likely R category. Sherrod was able to carry his old stomping grounds back in '06, but I don't think he'll be doing that again this year. Winters seems like a decent candidate, though. Assuming he fails, he could be a good future candidate for more local office. We really need to start cutting into these all Republican County Commissions.

Let me rephrase, I don't want us to focus almost entirely on suburban seats. It would be insane to ignore the Romney-Clinton seats in the suburbs though (not that all suburban districts moved towards Clinton, as I'm sure you know, especially in northeast Ohio.)

What are your two lean D seats? I'm not surprised they're rural; there's plenty of blue/purple/ancestral Dem rural areas in Ohio.

We definitely do need to win more seats in local government. In Hamilton County it looks like there's a good chance of getting rid of Chris Monzel, which is important considering the Todd Portune retirement rumors.

OH-94 and OH-89. Feel more confident about the 89th than the 94th for now. I look forward to the next fundraising report that should come in May. Could seriously alter my rankings.

Pillich seems likey to take on Commissioner if and when Portune leaves, IMO.

Those are what I have as my two most likely flips too, with 89 being the most likely. Joe Helle is an impressive candidate; I was impressed even before he got twitter famous by confronting Husted.

I wish Pillich had run in 28 this year. That's a district that looks like it should be easy to win on paper, but people really like Dever. And Jessica Miranda lost to him by 18 points in 2016. Still one of our better targets, but not as good as it would be with Pillich.

[BuckeyeNut]

I honestly wasn't too hot on Helle for a while since he seemed unnecessarily conservative, but I'm hearing good things from people who know better. And yeah. Pillich would have been great to return to the State House, but I can't fault her for running for Governor.

--

ION: Statewide candidates had to make personal ethics disclosures today. Nothing particularly juice I could find. Everyone seems to owe someone at least $1,000.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I honestly wasn't too hot on Helle for a while since he seemed unnecessarily conservative, but I'm hearing good things from people who know better. And yeah. Pillich would have been great to return to the State House, but I can't fault her for running for Governor.

--

ION: Statewide candidates had to make personal ethics disclosures today. Nothing particularly juice I could find. Everyone seems to owe someone at least $1,000.

There is a pun in there somewhere but I am not clever enough to think of it.

[Ohioguy29]

I honestly wasn't too hot on Helle for a while since he seemed unnecessarily conservative, but I'm hearing good things from people who know better. And yeah. Pillich would have been great to return to the State House, but I can't fault her for running for Governor.

--

ION: Statewide candidates had to make personal ethics disclosures today. Nothing particularly juice I could find. Everyone seems to owe someone at least $1,000.

There is a pun in there somewhere but I am not clever enough to think of it.

He is really is hot as Helle: (was going to link to a pic here but I don't have enough posts to do that yet.) I'd also like to note that he's just as fond as terrible puns as I am. His campaign slogan is "give 'em Helle," and he also likes to say "Arndt sure about Steve?" (his opponent is Steve Arndt.) This is why I like him.

[Ohioguy29]

I honestly wasn't too hot on Helle for a while since he seemed unnecessarily conservative, but I'm hearing good things from people who know better. And yeah. Pillich would have been great to return to the State House, but I can't fault her for running for Governor.

He never struck me as particularly conservative, he just has that "regular white guy" vibe. Then again, I am not all that liberal myself, so this was never a concern of mine.

I don't fault Pillich for running for governor, but she dropped out right after the filing deadline. She could've dropped out just a week or two earlier and been able to run for something else. Oh well.

[BuckeyeNut]

I honestly wasn't too hot on Helle for a while since he seemed unnecessarily conservative, but I'm hearing good things from people who know better. And yeah. Pillich would have been great to return to the State House, but I can't fault her for running for Governor.

He never struck me as particularly conservative, he just has that "regular white guy" vibe. Then again, I am not all that liberal myself, so this was never a concern of mine.

I don't fault Pillich for running for governor, but she dropped out right after the filing deadline. She could've dropped out just a week or two earlier and been able to run for something else. Oh well.

Rhetorically, he has sounded very conservative to me in interviews, and that made me distrustful of his actual positions on the issues. (First heard him on Slate's Amicus with Dahlia Lithwick, and then later on The Ohio Democratic Podcast.) But again, he seems fine talking with people who know more about him and the 89th.

I'm still confused as to why Pillich dropped out, frankly. She had just gotten EMILY's List and everything. As the last woman standing in Cordray v. Kucinich v. Schiavoni v. O'Neill, she could have won. And you have to think about how bad that would look to people, re: dropping out a week before the deadline only to announce for something else. Though that said, she'd certainly have been the best funded State House candidate, that's for sure.

[Usili]

So apparently 1984 Society did another poll, this time on the primary, here: http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/04/new_poll_shows_richard_cordray.html

Cordray leads Kucinich 27.5-12.6%, with 50.5% undecided.

DeWine leads Taylor 43.2%-25.9%, with 30.9% undecided.

[BuckeyeNut]

Very skeptical of decimals, but definitely an improvement. The average is now Cordray 24, Kucincich 17. Better than the Cordray 22, Kucinich 19 it was before. The number of undecideds in these polls is hilarious.