Mexican Elections 2017-18

[Antonio the Sixth]

So no results for me until tomorrow. Great.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL@ resident moderate heroes supporting some corrupt stooge because muh scary far-leftists. Oh, Atlas.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a live results count somewhere?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks!

[Antonio the Sixth]

How likely is it that MORENA will get an absolute majority?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, f**k, I really won't be able to see any solid results before I sleep, will I?

Good night y'all.

[Antonio the Sixth]

AMLOSLIDE

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, boy is this counting slow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

AMLO and MORENA have been slowly but steadily losing ground as the count has progressed. If this trend continues, could MORENA's absolute majority be at risk, at least in the Senate?

[Antonio the Sixth]

A constitutional supermajority in the House wouldn't be very useful on its own, without a corresponding supermajority in the Senate, right?

[Antonio the Sixth]

A constitutional supermajority in the House wouldn't be very useful on its own, without a corresponding supermajority in the Senate, right?

Right.  I think you need 2/3 in both Chambers for very  for approving constitutional changes.  I have to look it up but 300 out of 500 in the House does allow for certain types of changes ergo the significance of the AMLO bloc crossing 300 in the Lower House.

Would it be 300 in the House and a simple majority in the Senate, or 300 in the House and, say, 77 in the Senate?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I thought a party could only win a max of 300 seats in the lower chamber?

Well AMLO bloc is 3 parties (MORENA,PT,PES).   There is also the 8% rule which says you cannot get a seat share more than 8% greater than your PR vote share.  Of course AMLO divided up the 300 FPTP seats into 150 MORENA 75 PT 75 PES which de facto worked around this rule.

I assume MORENA got most of the safe seats while PT and PES got those that were harder to flip?

[Antonio the Sixth]

MORENA lost another Senate seat.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like PREP is done.  PREP seems much worse this year with a lot of outstanding votes and being very slow.  Wed night they will start the real official count

Wait, you mean Sunday and yesterday's count was just for show, and they have to start over and count all the votes again?? And that the process will be even slower?? what the christ

When can we hope to actually have semi-official results?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like PREP is done.  PREP seems much worse this year with a lot of outstanding votes and being very slow.  Wed night they will start the real official count

Wait, you mean Sunday and yesterday's count was just for show, and they have to start over and count all the votes again?? And that the process will be even slower?? what the christ

When can we hope to actually have semi-official results?

Yes.  What PREP does is to take in all the unofficial counts and then add them up and show them to the public.  There will be tons of mistakes along the way in terms of double counting and missed votes.  The goal of PREP is to prevent mass rigging of results since PREP will store all the images of unofficial results from each voting booth. 

On Wed night there will be an "official count" which to be fair is to make sure the unofficial count was counted and tallied up correctly.   In fact most of the "fraud" AMLO claimed took place in 2006 was a misunderstanding by the public that PREP was not meant to be authoritative or even that accurate but to have an ASAP unofficial count.  AMLO knows this put keeps on pointing out PREP mistakes/problem as "proof" of fraud just to continue his narrative.

Historically Mexico INE has a lot of problems of "math" where they have poor QC of data leading to clear and obvious mistakes they they do not even catch.  So a two phased approach might be best.

I see. That does make sense, yeah.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a website to follow the official count live?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a website to follow the official count live?

For federal elections: https://computos2018.ine.mx/#/presidencia/nacional/1/1/1/1

Thanks!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pretty sure a 4-point lead is beyond the possibility of flipping even if there were in fact significant irregularities, right?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh FFS, Mexico's voting system makes Italy's sound rational and sensible.

What's the final outcome in the Senate expected to be? 70-58?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the proportional representation rule different between the House and the Senate? The House PR seat breakdown suggests that PES votes have been redistributed to MORENA (otherwise MORENA would have gotten 83 seats instead of 86). However, if that was the case in the Senate, MORENA would have received 14 seats instead of 13.