2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[Zaybay]

I doubt Ilhan Omar wants to take a heaping pile of Anoka County, which would vote against her in a primary. And she's very much part of the DFL establishment, so her opinion matters to map drawers unlike AOC.

I actually would argue that Omar may prefer taking in Anoka county rather than the surrounding blue suburbs in Hennepin.

Omar's big threat comes from a primary. Having Minneapolis in the seat guarantees her safety in a general, but a primary challenger could possibly take her down. Having the blue suburbs of Hennepin shores up Omar in a general-election sense, but it decreases her odds of holding down in a primary, since these very blue voters could turn against her (as many did in the 2020 primary).

Anoka county is much more red, which would make her seat closer than her current. But in the end, that's not the threat that she's facing down. Meanwhile, the purple county of Anoka comes with the benefit of having fewer registered D voters who could go against her Minneapolis base and depose her.

So, if Omar is looking to shore herself up primary-wise, Anoka is the way to go.

[Zaybay]

Dr. RI, in this thread:

How urban, suburban, or rural each census tract perceives itself to be

has produced a map based on a HUD study that predicts how each census tract would perceive itself - urban, suburban, or rural.

This map would indicate the existence of an urban community of interest that is distinct from the suburban community of interest in the Twin Cities area.

The strongest predictors were found to be population and housing density. Minneapolis is 75% to 100% more dense than the first tier suburbs, and three-to-four times more dense than second-tier suburbs. St.Paul is not as dense as Minneapolis, but more dense than the Minneapolis suburbs.

Other factors such as education levels, income, race, etc. would indicate that Minneapolis and St. Paul form more of a COI than Minneapolis and the Hennepin suburbs.

Are you really still stuck with the whole "Minneapolis and St Paul should be one CD" argument?

It's already been discussed (to death) why that won't happen.

Also, "urban" is not a community of interest. Pairing up cities with other cities does not create a COI. Many cities across the US share more in common with their respective suburbs or even rural regions rather than a nearby city.