Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Bacon King]

SIXTY EIGHT PERCENT of voters yesterday were black, holy crap

thank you based Souls to the Polls

Sunday early voting is the best thing

[Bacon King]

Here's the margin shifts between last week's SUSA poll and the new one. One of these things is not like the others...

Governor: no change
Senate: Perdue + 5
Lt. Governor: Cagle + 3
Sec. of State: Kemp + 2
Attorney General: Hecht + 2
Superintendent: Woods + 3

[Bacon King]

Here's the margin shifts between last week's SUSA poll and the new one. One of these things is not like the others...

Governor: no change
Senate: Perdue + 5
Lt. Governor: Cagle + 3
Sec. of State: Kemp + 2
Attorney General: Hecht + 2
Superintendent: Woods + 3

Update: I saw a Greg Hecht ad on FOX 5 during the evening news tonight, talking about how he prosecuted child rapists. Apparently he has money for ad buys now so that's prob why he's surging

[Bacon King]

Here's the margin shifts between last week's SUSA poll and the new one. One of these things is not like the others...

Governor: no change
Senate: Perdue + 5
Lt. Governor: Cagle + 3
Sec. of State: Kemp + 2
Attorney General: Hecht + 2
Superintendent: Woods + 3

Update: I saw a Greg Hecht ad on FOX 5 during the evening news tonight, talking about how he prosecuted child rapists. Apparently he has money for ad buys now so that's prob why he's surging

Really? I've only seen the deluge of governor and Senate ads.  My aunt claims to have seen a Casey Cagle ad but I'm not convinced.

After 9PM I think the cost for ad space drops a lot because that's when I've been seeing the downballot candidates' stuff. Yesterday I even saw a Gary Black ad!

[Bacon King]

Here's the margin shifts between last week's SUSA poll and the new one. One of these things is not like the others...

Governor: no change
Senate: Perdue + 5
Lt. Governor: Cagle + 3
Sec. of State: Kemp + 2
Attorney General: Hecht + 2
Superintendent: Woods + 3

Update: I saw a Greg Hecht ad on FOX 5 during the evening news tonight, talking about how he prosecuted child rapists. Apparently he has money for ad buys now so that's prob why he's surging

Really? I've only seen the deluge of governor and Senate ads.  My aunt claims to have seen a Casey Cagle ad but I'm not convinced.

After 9PM I think the cost for ad space drops a lot because that's when I've been seeing the downballot candidates' stuff. Yesterday I even saw a Gary Black ad!

Fun fact: excluding Deal/Perdue propaganda (which I've seen very little of), Gary Black is the only Republican candidate whose signs I've seen in NW GA. Also, I've yet to see a Perdue or Deal commercial in the general election; Nunn's team started hitting our media market about 10 days ago (was coordinated to begin the same day Sam came to Dalton) and they're running all the time. Unusual, as we never get GA Dem TV ads up here.

Here in Gwinnett it's just Perdue and Deal except for one stretch of road near Buford where there's randomly four of those big poster-sized yard signs for Casey Cagle all within two miles from each other

I do love that Nunn's uncontested in your airwaves up there, it'll surely sway at least a few votes

[Bacon King]

"And if Michelle Nunn wins, Democrats keep control of the Senate..." -Barack Obama

I have heard this line at least twenty times today in radio ads, usually coupled with Nunn's "I defer to the President's judgement". It's brutally effective

Why in the world would Barry-O say something like that anywhere near a microphone?

[Bacon King]

Does anyone else think the risk of a turnout drop in the runoff has been overstated?

1. We're already dealing with the reduced electorate of a midterm
2. The meme is mostly based on Chambliss's reelection in 2008 where he got like 49% in spite of record turnou
3. It will get the full attention from donors as the last race
4 The Nunn campaign has proven to be professional and will doubtlessly run a first-class GOTV operation

[Bacon King]

BK FAMILY TRACKER ELECTIONWATCH

Dad voted for the libertarian in the gov race but voted Nunn, saying "I really don't like Perdue and voting Libertarian is a vote for Perdue since he'll win the runoff"

Mom voted Carter/Nunn

Grandmother voted Deal/Nunn

Aunt and uncle in south GA voted Deal/Perdue/Barrow

[Bacon King]

Turnout update: I'm currently outside Gwinnett's Duncan Creek precinct, waiting for my girlfriend to vote inside. This precinct covers the large and expansive Hamilton Mill suburban community. It's very busy, probably forty cars in the parking lot right now. Someone new is entering the voter line literally every ten seconds. Almost all of them obviously GOP voters. I really hope ATL is matching this turnout

[Bacon King]

There's a new GOP state senator named John F Kennedy

[Bacon King]

Nunn and Carter both basically got what the polls were saying they would get, guys, we just forgot Rule #1 of Georgia Elections: undecideds all vote Republican

[Bacon King]

Are there any uncounted votes? Could the margin shrink even a little more?

GA has no paper trail so any uncounted election night votes have probably already been deleted

[Bacon King]

So I've noticed Sanford Bishop has been voting as more of a moderate than usual lately- any chance he might have statewide ambitions?

[Bacon King]

So I've noticed Sanford Bishop has been voting as more of a moderate than usual lately- any chance he might have statewide ambitions?

He's black  I think?
So unfortunately, I guess he has no chances until at least 2020 to be elected statewide?

A black democrat was elected statewide as recently as 2006

[Bacon King]

It shows how far the GOP went in order to eliminate Barrow when his seat voted more Republican than the seat of the state's longest serving Republican Congressman

[Bacon King]

The average Atlanta commuter drives 70 miles a day just to get to work and back. Has the ATL's excessively sprawly design been a major factor in our sluggard economy, and will we finally leave last place in unemployment now that gas is cheaper?

[Bacon King]

Yeah, that's Walton County - BK lives near there, so he can probably tell us all about it. I've never had an excuse to go to that county (who would?)

growing up, I had reasons to go to Walton County- we played them in sports, and I had some friends down that way (and during high school dated girls from Loganville and Monroe)

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This is essentially correct, but Walton County is basically the worst of the Atlanta suburbs by far.

Fun facts about Walton County!

1. Jody Hice, America's worst Congressman, was the pastor of their largest Baptist Church
2. McMansion hellhole suburbia is everywhere, especially around Loganville.
3. The County Seat of Monroe is possibly the most segregated community I've ever been to, and the only place I know of where that "wrong side of the tracks" thing is still 100% true. The whites live in the south of town, the blacks in the north, no exceptions. And the locals literally call the north of town "Monkey-roe"
4. The local police actually drive around in these:



5. This is completely anecdotal, but the people I knew from down there were either mega jesus freaks, or living in outright hedonism- no middle ground. I can elaborate on this, kind of hard to explain, but it was a consistent trend I noticed from everyone I knew from the area.

[Bacon King]

COBB COBB COBB

[Bacon King]

I am under the impression, perhaps falsely, that Abrams wants to be the first Black woman elected President. She's certainly an inspirational figure, but it seems that she would be better off waiting a couple more cycles. Still, we need fewer old white men running the helm. I wish her well.

I am absolutely color-blind. The only criterion i use: "who is the most qualified candidate?. Who has best chances to win?" If he/she is Black - run him/her! If it's brown,  yellow or "old white man" - run him. I don't care about color of skin.... No preferences by that... Absolutely....

I know you're not an American, but use of the phrase "color-blind" usually indicates racism in the States.

I know that, but could never understand it, even while i was in US. May be i am "too Russian" by mentality, but my relatives in US are exactly like me, even after almost 30 years in US, and long - with American citizenship. "Color-blind" is an anthonim to racism. It's when color of skin becomes too important for a person (when he or she starts to speak about "this is a white/Black/Hispanic/ Asian legislative seat" and similar issues) then racism comes to play. As i already said - qualification is the only thing that matters for me.... For me a Black politicians in Memphis who attacked Steve Cohen for winning "a Black seat" there in late 1990th, were as racist as David Duke. And while "Black lives", undoubtely, matter, "white lives" matter too. And so on (BTW, this is a position of majority in Russia, and by far - THE most liberal position here, because those, who don't share it (about 1/5 of population by my estimate), may be rightfully called racists in Duke's mold... There is no such thing as "political correctness" in Russia).

I can't speak for the Russian mindset at all, but in the United States the issue is that the term "colorblind" is often a racist dog whistle.

Here, the attitude that "I'm colorblind, I see all races equally!" is what someone says when they also think, "I don't have a problem with black people, I just have a problem with inner city thugs and criminals! (which of course they automatically assume all black people are unless proven otherwise).

It's what someone says when they discriminate against black people using ostensibly "non-racial" factors but in truth their own prejudice causes them to automatically assume all black people possess those supposed "non-racial" traits. (example: a manager who thinks "I'm colorblind, I just don't want to hire any drug users!" but really they're racist because they assume all/most black people are on drugs and try to justify their behavior that way)

That's why the phrase "color-blind" is usually associated with racism here, I hope my explanation makes sense

[Bacon King]

Here's a post on the Atlanta Mayoral Election because it looks like the mega-thread hasn't covered it yet! With incumbent Mayor Kasim Reed term-limited, it seems like almost every notable politician in the city is running to replace him! Here's a list of the notable candidates:

Mary Norwood: Narrowly lost to Kasim Reed when he was first elected mayor in 2009. She represented an at-large city council district for two terms (2001 to 2009) before stepping down to run for mayor. She again serves as an at-large member of the city council, after being reelected to her old seat in 2013.

Keisha Lance Bottoms: She has represented southwest Atlanta on the City Council since 2009 (District 11). She also serves as the executive director of the Atlanta Fulton County Recreation Authority.

Kwanza Hall: He has represented District 2 on the City Council (representing portions of downtown and eastern Atlanta) since being elected in 2005. He previously served a term on the Atlanta School Board from 2001-2005. He's the son of civil rights veterans and is an MIT-educated engineer by trade.

Ceasar Mitchell: City Council President since 2009. Prior to that he served for eight years as a councilman. Recently he was required to pay small fines for several minor ethics violations. Leading the field in terms of fundraising.

Vincent Fort: Georgia State Senator for the 39th district, representing part of the city along with the adjacent East Point. He endorsed Bernie Sanders last year and is currently milking his Berniecrat bona fides for all they're worth.

Cathy Woolard: Elected to the City Council in 2001, becoming the first openly LGBT person to be elected to Atlanta's city government. Also served as Atlanta's first female City Council President, from 2005 to 2009. Some observers believe she might struggle as she has been out of elected office for eight years.

Peter Aman Former City of Atlanta Chief Operating Officer. Very effective fundraiser who already has ads up on the air.

Michael Sterling Former Assistant U.S. Attorney who has served as a close adviser to Mayor Reed. In 2014 he was appointed as executive director of the Atlanta Workforce Development Agency.

John Eaves Served as the Fulton County Commission Chairman, leading the largest county in the state, since he was elected to replace Karen Handel in 2006.

[Bacon King]

9 candidates and all - rather serious? Date of election?

not until November 7th!

[Bacon King]

Sally Yates would be an amazinq candidate and would be more likely to win a statewide than anybody else (except possibly Barrow) but I doubt she will actually run, unfortunately

[Bacon King]

Hopefully, Georgia will follow the national trend in 2018 and will cause several Republican seats to flip.  It didn't happen in 2006--which was the last off year Democratic tilt.  But that was because Mark Taylor was an awful gubernatorial candidate. 

I agree. The Atlanta suburbs have exploded and black voter registration has skyrocketed since Obama. The conditions are much more favorable for Georgia in 2018 as opposed to the last mid-term Democratic wave. Mentioned this before but I hope we get some good candidates in GA-06, GA-07, and I forgot GA-12 (!). I really want that seat back after all the bullsh**t the GOP did to take the seat away from Barrow.

Barrow being elected SoS would be revenge enough. GA-12 ain't flipping, but a good candidate getting out the vote there could help drive up statewide turnout for Evans and Barrow. Would Barrow be a good Senate candidate if he wins next year? I know he's old, but Isakson likely won't run again.

The 12th district is exactly the sort of district that'd be a surprise pickup in a wave election IMO. Barrow has the proven ability to win the district in its current form, and he'll do better in the district runninq for state office rather than federal office. he could easily carry the district in 2018 and his coattails could qive a win to the dem conqressional candidate as well (especially if turnout patterns are favorable to us)

[Bacon King]

I am not sure what economic opportunity has to do with a SoS race

idk what Barrow means by "economic opportunity" exactly but the Secretary of State office does have a fairly prominent oversight role over the state economy so it's definitely relevant to the job

The GA SoS is responsible for regulating all businesses, managing all sorts of different professional licensing programs, regulating Georgia's securities and investments markets, and they're also charged with enforcing a lot of consumer protection stuff

[Bacon King]

Also I've already said this to Adam but based on what I'm seeing on the ground expect to see big league democratic primary turnout among the Asian communities in Gwinnett/Fulton

(I'm working for a State Senate candidate with an uncontested primary but we've had joint event with several 7th district candidates and at least three primary candidates are actively targeting the Korean-American community in Duluth (and to a lesser extent the Vietnamese-American community around Lawrenceville).

Also anecdotally my Hmong friends are all suddenly getting extremely political on social media to but I don't know how noticeable that trend will be because the Gwinnett portion of their community is incredibly spread out these days - unlike for example the Barrow County portion of the Hmong community; here in Auburn they still have an active council of elders that informally governs the community (idk what the formal name for it is but they're really cool and I would explain more but this is already too much of a tangent as it is)