Paul, Johnson, Kirk, and Toomey are all theoretically vulnerable - Paul because he's ridiculous, Johnson is too conservative for a swing state, Kirk is an R in Illinois, and Toomey is potentially vulnerable but we will see. I don't see Ayotte losing, R women in New England are very difficult to dislodge. I don't see how Rubio loses because it's not as if there's a single Dem A-lister in the state to do it.
Blunt and Portman both seem unlikely to lose but we've had unlikely R losses in both states before. I would rate it as 10% chance as of now.
I think we will hold a lot of these senate seats in 2016, maybe loosing one or two considered vulnerable though. As a republican, loosing one or two will be unfortunate, all of them are fine public servants.
There is almsot no way Kirk, Toomey, and Johnson survive. They are way too conservative for their states and Democrats wont be sitting home like they did in 2010.
Toomey has approvals similar to Bob Casey at present and is a very shrewd politician, don't ever count him out.
