Emerson - Nevada (Everyone, but Biden, trails Trump)

[Annatar]

I the poll is believable with Trump approval being 49% considering the 2018 exit polls had him at 48%. 

Nevada is one of the few Clinton states Trump has a chance to flip in 2020, in the 2018 exit polls Trump had an approval of 48% and Nevada has trended Republican in the past 2 elections, in 2008-2012 it shifted from a partisan lean of  D+5.3 to D+2.8, a R+2.5 trend, from 2012-2016 there was another R+2.5 trend which shifted the state to D+0.3. Nevada in 2016 basically had the same partisan lean as it did in 2004 when it voted exactly in line with the nation.

Clark County was also the only county with 2 million plus people where Trump did better then Romney. Nevada has very few liberal college whites and a lot of Hispanics and non-college whites where Trumps numbers haven't really fallen and might improve in 2020.

[Annatar]

Well Nevada did trend R if you want to look at the 2016-18 swing but I don't believe in using midterm results to figure out trends, trends are calculated only using Presidential results and what happens in a midterm in any case doesn't really say much about future trends.

Look at Pennsylvania in 2006, Casey defeated the incumbent Republican Senator by 17%, I'm pretty sure that's one of the biggest margins of defeat for an incumbent senator in history and the Democratic governor won re-election by 21% and Dems picked up 4 house seats, complete slaughter for the GOP in Pennsylvania, yet in 2008 the state trended R+1.9 moving from a lean of D+5 in 2004 to D+3.1 in 2008 despite the 2006 outcome.