Lithuanian parliamentary election (October 11 and 25, 2020)

[MRCVzla]

First round of the Lithuanian parliamentary election was held yesterday, center-right TS-LKD wins the plurality of votes in the nationwide multi-member consituency who elects 70 of the 141 members of the Seimas (proportional under Hare method, 5% threshold -7% for coalitions-), while all junior partners of green-agrarian LVZS were under the 5% threshold, included polish-minority/pro-russian conservative LLRA-KSS who only got elected 2 single-member constituencies (in districts over 50%).

Preliminary results with the 100% of precincts counted:
TS-LKD 290.012 votes (24,82%) - 23 seats
LVZS 204.473 votes (17,50%) - 16 seats
DP (social-liberal) 110.566 votes (9,46%) - 9 seats
LSDP (socialdemocrat) 108.236 votes (9,26%) - 8 seats
LP (liberal-progressive) 105.455 votes (9,02%) - 8 seats
LRLS (liberal) 79.308 votes (6,79%) - 6 seats
LLRA-KSS (polish minority, conservative) 56.352 votes (4,82%)
LSDDP (labour-socialdemocrat) 37.040 votes (3,17%)
CP-T (center+nationalists) 26.682 votes (2,28%)
NS (national conservative) 24.921votes (2,13%)
LT (liberal) 23.266 votes (1,99%)
LZP (greens) 19.152 votes (1,64%)

Turnout was 47,16% (11,64% of them in postal voting)

In the single-member constituencies, only 3 districts were elected today, 2 for LLRA-KSS and 1 for TS-LKD, all held respect 2016. In the other 68 districts will be held runoffs in the second round on October 25. Some of the minor parties under the threshold were qualified in some districts.

Results page and more information on the Central Electoral Commission site (vrk.lt)

[CumbrianLefty]

How do those percentages compare with previously?

[MaxQue]

TS-LKD (+2.19)
LVZS (-4.95)
DP (social-liberal) (+4.58)
LSDP (socialdemocrat) (-5.78)
LP (liberal-progressive) new, split from LRLS
LRLS (liberal) (-2.66)
LLRA-KSS (-0.9)
LSDDP (labour-socialdemocrat) new, split from LSDP
CP-T (center+nationalists) (-4.6)
NS (national conservative) new
LT (liberal) (-3.56)
LZP (greens) (-0.49)

[Estrella]

A little more info on the parties:

TS-LKD (Homeland Union - Lithuanian Christian Democrats): descendants of the old Sąjūdis nationalist movement, today basically a mainstream centre-right party, economically liberal but socon and still kinda nationalist.

DP (Labour Party): stands for vague populist bullsh*t, founded by Viktor Uspaskich, a rather shady Russian-born self-made millionaire.

LVŽS (Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union): stands for vague populist bullsh*t, founded by Ramūnas Karbauskis, a slightly less shady and very much Lithuanian-born self-made millionaire.

LSDP (Lithuanian Social Democratic Party): used to be a party of unideological populist grifters that slowly transitioned into a kinda-sorta principled centre-left party.

LSDDP (Lithuanian Social Democratic Labour Party): LSDP members unhappy with the above transition, basically.

LP (Freedom Party): a split from the latter as mentioned earlier, founded by a former LRLS leader, rather openly liberal on social issues (quite a thing in a what's still a very conservative country, but there seems to be a market for it, so that's good).

LRLS (Liberal Movement): also a 'liberal' party, but clearly to the right of the former. Has a former leader investigated for corruption, so there's that.

LLRA-KŠS (Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance): a party of the 5-6% Polish minority, unabashedly Bible-thumping and really really socon, the pro-Rusianness is because of their connections to the Russian minority, which is tiny unlike in other Baltic countries, but it's still really weird.

CP-T (Centre Party - Nationalists): led by a former TS-LKD guy, vague populists (now that's a repeating theme, isn't it?) who ocassionally make some nationalistic or economically leftish noises.

NS (National Association): conservative nationalists led by Vytautas Radžvilas, a philosophy professor and poor man's Jordan Peterson (after he had his courses cut, he accused the university of being a training place for "employees who serve the neoliberal system").

LŽS (Lithuanian Green Party): more genuine than LVŽS (hard not to be tbh).

LT (Freedom and Justice): basically the same as LRLS sans the corruption part, took their current name after a merger with a one-man party of a former MP for the nationalist Order and Justice (?!) (fwiw, Order and Justice used to call themselves Liberal Democratic Party, though very much in the Zhirinovsky sense).

A honorable mention to the Putin fanboys and fangirls of LLK (Lithuanian People's Party) and DK (The Way of Courage), an almost-dead anti-corruption party that aimed to uncover the vast pedophile conspiracy among the rich and powerful of Lithuania or something.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

A little more info on the parties:

TS-LKD (Homeland Union - Lithuanian Christian Democrats): descendants of the old Sąjūdis nationalist movement, today basically a mainstream centre-right party, economically liberal but socon and still kinda nationalist.

DP (Labour Party): stands for vague populist bullsh*t, founded by Viktor Uspaskich, a rather shady Russian-born self-made millionaire.

LVŽS (Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union): stands for vague populist bullsh*t, founded by Ramūnas Karbauskis, a slightly less shady and very much Lithuanian-born self-made millionaire.

LSDP (Lithuanian Social Democratic Party): used to be a party of unideological populist grifters that slowly transitioned into a kinda-sorta principled centre-left party.

LSDDP (Lithuanian Social Democratic Labour Party): LSDP members unhappy with the above transition, basically.

LP (Freedom Party): a split from the latter as mentioned earlier, founded by a former LRLS leader, rather openly liberal on social issues (quite a thing in a what's still a very conservative country, but there seems to be a market for it, so that's good).

LRLS (Liberal Movement): also a 'liberal' party, but clearly to the right of the former. Has a former leader investigated for corruption, so there's that.

LLRA-KŠS (Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance): a party of the 5-6% Polish minority, unabashedly Bible-thumping and really really socon, the pro-Rusianness is because of their connections to the Russian minority, which is tiny unlike in other Baltic countries, but it's still really weird.

CP-T (Centre Party - Nationalists): led by a former TS-LKD guy, vague populists (now that's a repeating theme, isn't it?) who ocassionally make some nationalistic or economically leftish noises.

NS (National Association): conservative nationalists led by Vytautas Radžvilas, a philosophy professor and poor man's Jordan Peterson (after he had his courses cut, he accused the university of being a training place for "employees who serve the neoliberal system").

LŽS (Lithuanian Green Party): more genuine than LVŽS (hard not to be tbh).

LT (Freedom and Justice): basically the same as LRLS sans the corruption part, took their current name after a merger with a one-man party of a former MP for the nationalist Order and Justice (?!) (fwiw, Order and Justice used to call themselves Liberal Democratic Party, though very much in the Zhirinovsky sense).

A honorable mention to the Putin fanboys and fangirls of LLK (Lithuanian People's Party) and DK (The Way of Courage), an almost-dead anti-corruption party that aimed to uncover the vast pedophile conspiracy among the rich and powerful of Lithuania or something.

Worth to mention that recently Valdemar Tomasevski, leader of LLRA mentioned in TV that they are not Polish-interest party and minority interest are not their top priority. And he is obviously right but not probably intentionally - because they are obviously local government clique with shady interests and not a normal party.

There were also Poles taking part in the elections from different lists - most notably from LSDP and LP.

[MRCVzla]

Seat composition after 2nd Round (and seat differences respect 2016 election):
TS-LKD: 49 seats (+18)
LVŽS: 32 seats (-22)
LSDP: 13 seats (-4)
LRLS: 13 seats (-1)
LP: 11 seats (new)
DP: 10 seats (+8)
LLRA-KŠS: 3 seats (-5)
LSDDP: 3 seats (new)
LT: 1 seat (-7, respect to TT)
LŽP: 1 seat (=)
Independents: 4 seats (=)

There is one seat pending in the Utenos district due to a recount, both candidates qualified  in the runoff (TS-LKD' Edmundas Pupinis and LSDP' leader Gintautas Paluckas) received the exact same amount of votes as 7075 (Paluckas has most votes in the election-day presencial voting, while Pupinis has most votes on the early voting postal ballots, both counts with the exact difference of 300 votes), the Lithuanian Cental Electoral Commission' results page gives the seat to the TS-LKD candidate, but the final results will may know across the following days.

Turnout around the 68/71 districts including early voting was 38.6% (up to 37.8% in the same 68 districts in 2016). Only election-day voting turnout figure was 27.4% (down to 31.8% in 2016), possibly COVID influenced this last one.

Most likely coalition are TS-LKD+LRLS+LP (73-74 seats). TS-LKD' PM candidate Ingrida Šimonytė already won her Antakalnis district in the 1st round, while in the 2nd round party leader Gabrielius Landsbergis retained his Centras–Žaliakalnis district. Incumbent PM Saulius Skvernelis loses in his district (Pilaitė–Karoliniškiės) to a TS-LKD candidate but he will stay in the Seimas with a PR seat (same situation with Health minister Aurelijus Veryga -rumored as PM candidate- who was unable to defend their Panemunė district -also won by a TS-LKD candidate-), Freedom Party (LP) leader Aušrinė Armonaitė won the new district for Lithuanian voters abroad, incumbent Seimas speaker Viktoras Pranckietis hold their Raudondvaris seat now has a LRLS candidate (he was originaly elected as LVŽS, but defected during his term and survived two unsuccesful attempts to be ousted from office).

Meanwhile to parties under the threshold, polish minority/conservative LLRA-KŠS hold their other district in Vilnius with the 2 already won in 1st round, LSDP splinter LSDDP was able to win 3 seats, TT successor (and LLS/LCS spiritual one) LT won 1 (former TT leader Remigijus Žemaitaitis in Kelmė–Šilalė), green party LŽP won also 1 seat (former PM Algirdas Butkevičius in Vilkaviškis), as for the independent candidates, controversial MP Petras Gražulis (Gargždai) will stay in the parliament, nationalist-centrist CP-T (LCP in 2016) is no longer represented in the Seimas.

[MRCVzla]

Final seat composition after the Utenos recounts, TS-LKD hold the seat with a margin of five votes (7076 vs. 7071 of LSDP' leader Paluckas):
TS-LKD: 50 seats (+19)
LVŽS: 32 seats (-22)
LSDP: 13 seats (-4)
LRLS: 13 seats (-1)
LP: 11 seats (new)
DP: 10 seats (+8)
LLRA-KŠS: 3 seats (-5)
LSDDP: 3 seats (new)
LT: 1 seat (-7, respect to TT)
LŽP: 1 seat (=)
Independents: 4 seats (=)

Homeland Union (TS-LKD), Liberal Movement (LRLS) and Freedom Party (LP) have already started talks on a future liberal-conservative government coalition.