Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[ON Progressive]

Clark is in, 28K voted, but the Democratic advantage was about the same as it was on Sunday, about 44-37. That means a net gain of 2K from Clark itself, and Democrats are now ahead by 7.2K in the in person vote, 4.8K overall. They're padding to their lead, but they need to hope that unaffiliated voters are going to break Democratic, since a 7% win in Clark isn't going to be enough.

I'm starting to worry myself, if I'm honest.

[ON Progressive]

The Blue Wave is officially dead (I know I said that before, but perhaps now people will listen). People are voting in 2016-level turnout. Didn't the Red Avatars here say that we needed a low turnout in order to the Blue Wave to happen?  

"2016-level turnout" is not a binary state.

Don't even bother. It's hemorrhofoid, the most blatant troll on this site.

[ON Progressive]

Washoe came in.

GOP gets their first day won when you include the absentee/mail-in ballots. 42-40 margin. That's about in line with their registration margin in Washoe.

Democrats lead by 4 overall in Washoe through the first three days.

[ON Progressive]

Okay Dean is going to win. Rural areas are on fire and Dems are not counter punching

What the hell are you talking about? Clark is going to have north of 20k turnout for the fourth straight day.

[ON Progressive]

Democrats won Washoe again, no idea what ON Progressive is talking about.

I'm including mail in/absentee ballots. Democrats won the Washoe in-person vote, but when you include absentees, Republicans win.

[ON Progressive]

In Clark County, the Dem returns are about 27% over Rep returns so far, whereas in 2016 they were 53% over Rep returns. This indicates good news for Republicans in Nevada. But again, keep calling me a troll for summarizing the data.

That 27% figure would actually be better than 2010, and definitely better than 2014.

[ON Progressive]

I'd like to see a more systematic comparison of NV figures to previous years. So far it all sounds pretty impressionistic.

My guess would also be that 2010 is the best basis of comparison, but the big caveat is that the electorate has grown quite a bit since then.

It's really difficult to compare this to any other year, unfortunately.

You can't compare to Presidential years for obvious reasons. You can't compare to 2014 because that was a year where the top of the ticket was a total nobody going up against an ultra-popular incumbent Republican. You can try to compare to 2010, but like you said, the state has grown a lot since then.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1055322364718641152

Democrats add another 2300 votes to their #ClarkFirewall.

[ON Progressive]

To respond to bilaps, I've acknowledged that the numbers aren't looking as rosy for Democrats as they did on Saturday, I'm just saying that while Rosen isn't looking like she'll win by 10, I'd still rather be her than Heller. Anyone who thought that breakdown by party ID alone would suggest a Democratic wave was engaging in some pretty wishful thinking. If there is a blue tsunami (big if) it's probably because Independents are breaking heavily for Democrats and there's some crossover voting. I wouldn't bet on that, but that was always going to be necessary for a 60+ seat tsunami for the Democrats.

Anyway, more Clark absentees are in, Democrats gained about 100 more, and are now just shy of a 3.5K lead statewide. Hopefully we'll get a Clark turnout update in about an hour or so.

It is 3 PM in Nevada (Anybody know why they use PT when MT seems more reasonable geographically?), so we might get one soon.

[ON Progressive]

I checked with the guy who made this graph, this does include both in-person and mail-in absentee/early vote:



https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1055551929756065794

That Milwaukee number is impressive considering they've been a little "eh" since 2012. Decent jump from yesterday too, based on the graph he posted yesterday where they were almost on the blue line.

Those numbers are fantastic for Walker, who relies more on Waukesha and similar counties and doesn't need the Obama-Trump rurals.

I know I shouldn’t take any post from a clown like you seriously, but this is more for people who aren’t braindead (unlike you) that believe Walker is particularly strong in WOW.

2010 Ron Johnson: 70.97% in Waukesha, 74.66% in Washington, 68.47% in Ozaukee (won by 4.84%)
2010 Scott Walker: 71.49% in Waukesha, 74.99% in Washington, 68.88% in Ozaukee (won by 5.77%)

Walker actually did relatively worse than Johnson in WOW when you consider Walker did nearly a full point better statewide.

[ON Progressive]

2016 should prove early vote in FL means nothing. Also, Dems did better on e-day than in early vote in the special elections in Florida this cycle.

[ON Progressive]

Democrats win the Washoe early vote (again) by 45 votes.

However, mail-in/absentees cut into that and then some yet again. The GOP ultimately take the combined Washoe in-person/mail by a 3038-2949 margin, with 1460 NPA.

That means a roughly 40.7-39.6 GOP day. Not great, but I'm pretty sure it is better than yesterday and it's still close in Washoe.

[ON Progressive]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

Firewall up to 18K. Tomorrow will be a big day for the Dems, Ralston is suggesting the culinary union has a GOTV push starting here.

God I hope so. It's still a long way to 35K.

Am I missing something? Their firewall is at ~3.5k statewide, not 18k? Wasn't their firewall at ~50k statewide in 2016 after EV?

You shouldn't compare 2016 EV to midterm EV. In any case, he was talking about the Clark firewall, which is currently at 18k.

[ON Progressive]

Looks like a few rurals are already reporting today. Unless those numbers are imcomplete (which is my guess), turnout is way down there. Surprised that we don't have any turnout reports from Clark yet.

I don't think the NV SOS spreadsheet publishes numbers until they're complete.

[ON Progressive]

Washoe County (I added the early vote and the absentee ballots):

October 27, 2018

Democratic - 2,385 (42.01%) (+4.75%)
Republican - 2,115 (37.26%)
Nonpartisan - 1,177 (20.73%)
Total - 5,677

Source

That's good, right?

That's very good. This is a county with a 2 point GOP registration lead.

[ON Progressive]

Any one else watching the early vote numbers come in nearly real time on several Florida county websites? More addictive than watching a NYT poll  The excitement of my afternoon was watching Democrats take the lead in total returns in Duval County.

There's a lot of DINOs in Duval, unfortunately. It has a D+4 registration advantage but always votes Republican unless Dems are doing REALLY well (like Nelson 2012, for instance). Even Obama lost it in 2008.

[ON Progressive]

N U T

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1056771823369519105?s=21

Dems adding 3.4k (!) to the Clark firewall despite it being a low turnout day.

[ON Progressive]

What is the Dem-statewide lead now?

11.5k.

Also, keep in mind the second Sunday is usually the worst day for turnout in the state and there was still 20k turnout in Clark.

[ON Progressive]

I took a look at the amount the final RCP average was off the actual results in 2016 in some of these states.  This is what I found:

FL   +1.0 R
IN   +8.3 R
MO +7.5 R
TX   -3.0 R
AZ   -0.5 R
NV   -3.2 R

If this were added/subtracted from the current RCP results, the Republicans would take IN, MO, TX and AZ (by 0.2). The Democrats would take FL and NV.

Ah yes, because polling error is always the same every election. Obama totally didn’t overperform polling in nearly every battleground state in 2012, after all.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056973706856062976

I'm going to need a whole farm full of eggs for November 7th. I'm so excited! I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas again.

Can I also join you in putting eggs on Atlas poster faces about this race?

[ON Progressive]

Total early voting results so far here in FL:

Republicans:  1,760,354 - 39.3%
Democrats: 1,821,290 - 40.7%
NPA/OTHER: 897,830 - 20%

Total so far: 4,479,474

Where did you get this from? This is higher than I've seen else were.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

You're including VBMs that haven't returned ballots yet.

[ON Progressive]

Does anyone know why those days tend to be relatively good for Rs in Clark?

[ON Progressive]

Does anyone know why those days tend to be relatively good for Rs in Clark?

Probably catch-up from the weekend, since polling places were closed in the rurals.

Talking about Clark specifically.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1057101948590022656

Continuing weak numbers from the GOP in Washoe. They should be running up the margin today and tomorrow.

The absentees helped make it a +301 GOP day overall in Washoe. Still though, Dems lead by 819 in Washoe overall.

[ON Progressive]

There apparently is going to be a delay on Clark County tonight.

BOOOOOOOO.