UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Bacon King]

This is a hilariously amateur mistake if true, but you know, if you flip the weighted votes for Labour and the Tories in the Doncaster North poll, then it actually looks similar to the real 2010 results...

[Bacon King]

Major caveat for using poll crosstabs, but here's the average of the 2010 breakdown in the last 5 YouGov polls:

2015 Intentions of 2010 Conservative Voters

Conservative	73.0%
UKIP	19.8%
Labour	4.6%
Green	1.6%
Lib Dem	1.0%
SNP	0.6%
Don't Know	9.6%
Not Voting	1.6%

2015 Intentions of 2010 Labour Voters

Labour	75.6%
UKIP	7.8%
Conservative	5.8%
SNP	4.6%
Green	3.4%
Lib Dem	1.4%
Don't Know	10.2%
Not Voting	2.2%

2015 Intentions of 2010 Liberal Democrat Voters

Labour	29.2%
Lib Dem	27.6%
Green	13.4%
UKIP	12.6%
Conservative	12.2%
SNP	3.6%
Don't Know	17.2%
Not Voting	3.2%

[Bacon King]

YouGov's internals than from other polling companies

Is YouGov not reliable? I just went with them because they're the only ones that seem to be getting posted in this thread. In general terms, how would you rank UK pollsters?

[Bacon King]

Though on the issue at hand, the fun part is that there are clear geographical differences. In and around London I doubt that many people (although there will still be some) who voted LibDem in 2010 will have even considered toying with UKIP. The situation is rather different out here in the provinces.

None of the other online panel pollsters (Survation, Populus, ComRes, Opinium) have much of a track record.

With these two posts in mind I decided to check out a few of the more recent polls from a variety of pollsters. I just wanted to share with everyone here that ComRes believes the UKIP are leading in Wales with a four point margin (check page 12 of the pdf)

[Bacon King]

Though on the issue at hand, the fun part is that there are clear geographical differences. In and around London I doubt that many people (although there will still be some) who voted LibDem in 2010 will have even considered toying with UKIP. The situation is rather different out here in the provinces.

None of the other online panel pollsters (Survation, Populus, ComRes, Opinium) have much of a track record.

With these two posts in mind I decided to check out a few of the more recent polls from a variety of pollsters. I just wanted to share with everyone here that ComRes believes the UKIP are leading in Wales with a four point margin (check page 12 of the pdf)

The margin of error for Labour and Ukip is 15%. This is not a defect of the poll, but a standard feature of the statistics of small samples.

I know, but it's still amusing IMO.

I'd consider it terrible design for ComRes to even list a crosstab with such tiny subsamples on the ballot- misleading data is worse than no data. every other pollster appears to combine Wales with the South West or the Midlands to prevent it, similar to how the regions in northern England get grouped together. In the US, most good pollsters just leave parts of their crosstabs blank when the subsample MoE is too high.

[Bacon King]

After a general election, the resulting parliament will sit for five years unless it is ended prematurely by either a successful motion of no confidence or a motion for an early election date passes with two thirds of the total membership

[Bacon King]

Fun read here: https://drseansdiary.wordpress.com/2015/02/20/use-your-ed-how-i-put-miliband-into-number-10-just/

Anyone have the 2015 version of the game yet?

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best political simulator

[Bacon King]

again, ignorant newbie here: the most likely scenario is a Conservative-UKIP-(LD) coalition gov't?  is Labour-SNP coalition gov't possible?

No, the most likely outcome (if the election was held today, etc) would be Labour minority with tactical support from the SNP (and Plaid).

a popular betting site has the Cons.  over/under at about 285, with the Labour over/under at around 270.  why is Labour minority considered a favorite (it's not just you, the bettors have Labour minority as a small favorite over Conservative minority), is there a piece to this I'm missing?

If the SNP held the balance of power they would probably give confidence to a Labour government even if the Conservatives had more seats