2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Blackacre]

No longer a sub-7! Woo!!

[LimoLiberal]

Morning Consult goes from D+3 to D+6.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Happy!

[adrac]

If anything, it's somewhat odd how the generic ballot polls have been lagging behind the changes in Trump's approval rating.

[LimoLiberal]

CA-39: Young Kim (R) leads potential Democratic challengers

http://www.anaheimblog.net/2018/01/18/cd39-did-beltway-prognosticators-overreact-to-royce-retirement/

Remington Research, and they don't give the actual poll release so take it with a grain of salt.

But it shows generic ballot 47-47 TIED, and Trump approval 45-49 (in a district he lost by 8 points!).

There is two matchups between Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who has the endorsement of Royce, and possible democratic challengers.

Kim (R): 41
Cisneros (D): 38

Kim (R): 42
Tranh (D): 33

One of the worst polls I've seen for Democrats since the 2016 election.

[junior chįmp]

CA-39: Young Kim (R) leads potential Democratic challengers

http://www.anaheimblog.net/2018/01/18/cd39-did-beltway-prognosticators-overreact-to-royce-retirement/

Remington Research, and they don't give the actual poll release so take it with a grain of salt.

But it shows generic ballot 47-47 TIED, and Trump approval 45-49 (in a district he lost by 8 points!).

There is two matchups between Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who has the endorsement of Royce, and possible democratic challengers.

Kim (R): 41
Cisneros (D): 38

Kim (R): 42
Tranh (D): 33

One of the worst polls I've seen for Democrats since the 2016 election.

Kim won't win

[Gass3268]

CA-39: Young Kim (R) leads potential Democratic challengers

http://www.anaheimblog.net/2018/01/18/cd39-did-beltway-prognosticators-overreact-to-royce-retirement/

Remington Research, and they don't give the actual poll release so take it with a grain of salt.

But it shows generic ballot 47-47 TIED, and Trump approval 45-49 (in a district he lost by 8 points!).

There is two matchups between Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who has the endorsement of Royce, and possible democratic challengers.

Kim (R): 41
Cisneros (D): 38

Kim (R): 42
Tranh (D): 33

One of the worst polls I've seen for Democrats since the 2016 election.

Lol Remington, can move this to Likely D.

[Ebsy]

lol a GOP internal showing their candidate with way under 50% of the vote is "very bad for dems".

[Holmes]

Actually it's bad news for John McCain.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, and Issa is up 17 too. They retired solely because they wanted to spend more time with their family!

[IceSpear]

CA-39: Young Kim (R) leads potential Democratic challengers

http://www.anaheimblog.net/2018/01/18/cd39-did-beltway-prognosticators-overreact-to-royce-retirement/

Remington Research, and they don't give the actual poll release so take it with a grain of salt.

But it shows generic ballot 47-47 TIED, and Trump approval 45-49 (in a district he lost by 8 points!).

There is two matchups between Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who has the endorsement of Royce, and possible democratic challengers.

Kim (R): 41
Cisneros (D): 38

Kim (R): 42
Tranh (D): 33

One of the worst polls I've seen for Democrats since the 2016 election.

snip

Lol at the casual racist remark thrown in here.

Mods, srsly

[LimoLiberal]

CA-39: Young Kim (R) leads potential Democratic challengers

http://www.anaheimblog.net/2018/01/18/cd39-did-beltway-prognosticators-overreact-to-royce-retirement/

Remington Research, and they don't give the actual poll release so take it with a grain of salt.

But it shows generic ballot 47-47 TIED, and Trump approval 45-49 (in a district he lost by 8 points!).

There is two matchups between Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who has the endorsement of Royce, and possible democratic challengers.

Kim (R): 41
Cisneros (D): 38

Kim (R): 42
Tranh (D): 33

One of the worst polls I've seen for Democrats since the 2016 election.

snip

Lol at the casual racist remark thrown in here.

Mods, srsly

What is the racist remark? I wrote nothing racist consciously in the original post.

Edit: Oh it was King Lear's post, not mine.

[henster]

I think the Cali seats are going to be a lot tougher than people think. The whole 'sanctuary state' stuff may be energizing conservatives there.

[LimoLiberal]

Reuters Ipsos went from D+5 to D+6. Not enough to take the House.

[adrac]

CA-39: Young Kim (R) leads potential Democratic challengers

http://www.anaheimblog.net/2018/01/18/cd39-did-beltway-prognosticators-overreact-to-royce-retirement/

Remington Research, and they don't give the actual poll release so take it with a grain of salt.

But it shows generic ballot 47-47 TIED, and Trump approval 45-49 (in a district he lost by 8 points!).

There is two matchups between Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who has the endorsement of Royce, and possible democratic challengers.

Kim (R): 41
Cisneros (D): 38

Kim (R): 42
Tranh (D): 33

One of the worst polls I've seen for Democrats since the 2016 election.

snip

Lol at the casual racist remark thrown in here.

Mods, srsly

What is the racist remark? I wrote nothing racist consciously in the original post.

Edit: Oh it was King Lear's post, not mine.

Virginia's on the ball apparently

[LimoLiberal]

I think the Cali seats are going to be a lot tougher than people think. The whole 'sanctuary state' stuff may be energizing conservatives there.

I question the effectiveness of "SANCTUARY CITIES HISPANICS ILLEGALS KILL YOUR CHILDREN" in districts that are 20-40% Hispanic when it was completely unsucessful in Virginia.

Gillespie also failed epically in suburban districts, and basically all of the California seats are suburban.

[Virginiá]

Reuters Ipsos went from D+5 to D+6. Not enough to take the House.

Actually, +6 is just a tad below the line of what some think Democrats need. Sabato posted an analysis that suggests it might be possible with around 6. I think he may have even went lower.

Either way, I'm pretty sure most users who follow this thread know the popular vote range Democrats need to get by now. It's been discussed quite a bit.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yeah, and Issa is up 17 too. They retired solely because they wanted to spend more time with their family!

I love also how the pollster mentions the "Democrat" party.

[LimoLiberal]

It's clear the Democrats have a massive problem. Yougov went from D+6 to D+4 this week even as Trump's approval went down. Disastrous month.

[BudgieForce]

It's clear the Democrats have a massive problem. Yougov went from D+6 to D+4 this week even as Trump's approval went down. Disastrous month.

Ipsos and Morning Consult both showed increases.

[Holmes]

Honestly Limo, you gotta stop obsessing over every single poll that releases.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CA-39: Young Kim (R) leads potential Democratic challengers

http://www.anaheimblog.net/2018/01/18/cd39-did-beltway-prognosticators-overreact-to-royce-retirement/

Remington Research, and they don't give the actual poll release so take it with a grain of salt.

But it shows generic ballot 47-47 TIED, and Trump approval 45-49 (in a district he lost by 8 points!).

There is two matchups between Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who has the endorsement of Royce, and possible democratic challengers.

Kim (R): 41
Cisneros (D): 38

Kim (R): 42
Tranh (D): 33

One of the worst polls I've seen for Democrats since the 2016 election.

What? Royce won reelection to this district with 57% of the vote. Stop trolling.

[Gass3268]

Republicans are nearing extinction as a party as their collapse continues in a new Quinnipiac poll:

51% Democrats (+1)
38% Republicans (-1)

Source

[King Lear]

It's clear the Democrats have a massive problem. Yougov went from D+6 to D+4 this week even as Trump's approval went down. Disastrous month.

If this is true, it’s going to be worse then I thought, by the way can you post the yougov poll?

[LimoLiberal]

It's clear the Democrats have a massive problem. Yougov went from D+6 to D+4 this week even as Trump's approval went down. Disastrous month.

If this is true, it’s going to be worse then I thought, by the way can you post the yougov poll?

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mhd1jcnn1c/econToplines.pdf

Question 81. 41-37.

[Doimper]

It's clear the Democrats have a massive problem. Yougov went from D+6 to D+4 this week even as Trump's approval went down. Disastrous month.

If this is true, it’s going to be worse then I thought, by the way can you post the yougov poll?

yeah whoa you guys are so smart. the numbers going down means democrats wont do good, i cant belive that they dont see that? there so dumb that even TRUMP has insmarted them