Generally, when flip-flopping for electoral convenience, it makes sense to switch from a position that is less popular to one that is more popular.
But it's also true that a change of heart is usually from a position that is less popular to one that is more popular. How can you distinguish the two?
Not really, see above. You just happen to approve of one switch and disapprove of another.
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Literally hundreds of millions of Americans have switched their views from against gay rights to for gay rights in my adult lifetime (I am 40). The number who have switched in the other direction I can probably count on one hand, and usually it's because of a personal trauma. Romney's flip-flop is evaluated against that background.
I'm a gay man in Massachusetts who personally struggled against Mitt Romney's campaign against same-sex marriage from 2003-2006 through brutal fights in the legislature. So, yes, I have a stronger opinion on his change from "gay rights are ok" to "we must defend traditional marriage/hey South Carolina vote Romney '08!" than your average change because it's personal to me and I saw up-close how cynical and callous he was being.
Since Romney's backwardness on gay rights probably contributed to his loss in 2012, I can say I heartily approve of it in one sense.
I voted for Clinton over Obama in the 2008 primaries because I mistrusted Obama's cynicism on gay rights, in fact. Google Donnie McClurkin.
Clinton was cynical as well, but at least everyone knew that and there was no scope to be disappointed.