🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Madeira snap regional election: 26 May 2024)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do you have comparisons to 2004? That might be more apples-to-apples.

[Mike88]

Do you have comparisons to 2004? That might be more apples-to-apples.

Yes, they have that info:

Q1: Degree of satisfaction with democracy?

2004: 39% A lot/acceptable; 58% Very little/none

2014: 25% A lot/acceptable; 72% Very little/none

2024: 57% A lot/acceptable; 41% Very little/none

Q2: To what extent do you think Portuguese society has changed since the 25th of April?

2004: 39% A lot; 33% Considerable; 23% Very little; 4% No change

2014: 41% A lot; 45% Considerable; 11% Very little; 2% No change

2024: 45% A lot; 39% Considerable; 13% Very little; 1% No change

Other comparisons:

Q3: How should the political regime before the 25 April be remembered?

2004: 17% A period with more positive things than negative; 26% A period with both positive and negative things; 50% A period with more negative things than positive

2014: 18% A period with more positive things than negative; 28% A period with both positive and negative things; 42% A period with more negative things than positive

2024: 20% A period with more positive things than negative; 26% A period with both positive and negative things; 50% A period with more negative things than positive

Q4: How should the 25 April go down in history?

2004: 58% More positive than negative; 23% Both positive and negative; 14% More negative than positive

2014: 58% More positive than negative; 27% Both positive and negative; 10% More negative than positive

2024: 56% More positive than negative; 32% Both positive and negative; 10% More negative than positive

Q5: The way the transition to democracy was made is a source of pride?

2004: 77% Yes; 14% No

2014: 79% Yes; 12% No

2024: 81% Yes; 13% No

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh okay, so the pro-democracy, pro-Revolution sentiment has actually steadily grown over time. Very good to see.

Seems like most likely the product of generational replacement, with older people nostalgic of the Estado Novo dying out.

[Mike88]

In the meantime...

President Marcelo puts "his foot in his mouth", again: Marcelo labels PM Montenegro as "rural" and "unpredictable", and former PM Costa as "slow" because he's "oriental".

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1783190700471038338

The President of the Republic said that the new Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, has “rural behavior” and that António Costa was “slow” because he is oriental, in a meeting with international journalists at Vila Galé Ópera, in Lisbon.

President Marcelo is being news, again, for "speaking too much". In a foreign press dinner, yesterday 23 April, Marcelo made a series of comments about current affairs in Portugal, that were tapped by someone and have now been leaked to the national press: He said he's no longer speaking to his son after the whole Brazilian twins scandal, and then started comparing Montenegro and Costa. Of Montenegro, he said the PM has "rural behaviors", that he's an "old school politician" with different timings and that he's unpredictable. Costa, on the other hand, according to Marcelo, is much more predictable, but at the same time "slow", probably because he's "oriental", as, according to Marcelo "orientals are slow". Marcelo added that Montenegro will give him "much more work" than Costa, as the latter talked a lot with him, while Montenegro doesn't.

Marcelo being Marcelo... But, com'on, this is becoming embarrassing and sad.

Oh okay, so the pro-democracy, pro-Revolution sentiment has actually steadily grown over time. Very good to see.

Seems like most likely the product of generational replacement, with older people nostalgic of the Estado Novo dying out.

The numbers seem broadly stable, only the satisfaction with democracy has shifted over time, but the environments during these periods may have had an impact: In 2014 there was the bailout, economic problems, high unemployment; In 2004, economic stagnation, a lot of scandals, a sense of being stuck.

[Mike88]

25 April 50-year celebrations:

A series of events will, or have, occurer during the day. The media coverage is still focused on Marcelo's controversial comments, on a dinner for foreign press in Portugal, regarding Costa/Montenegro, the Prosecutor, the possibility of financial compensations to former colonies, something an official source of the government labeled as "toxic and inappropriate". The media is criticizing a lot Marcelo for his comments.

The day started with a military parade in Terreiro do Paço square in downtown Lisbon:

The ceremonies then continued in Parliament, with the traditional speeches by political parties and the President of the Republic:

PAN, the first party to speak, remembered the legacy of the 25 April, that during today has a new meaning due to the ongoing war in Europe, climate change and the rise of political forces that jeopardize human rights; CDS criticized Marcelo's idea of compensating former colonies, saying that "history is history" and that "our duty is the future"; Livre leader Rui Tavares talked about his mother's nightmares with Salazar and his uncle arrest by PIDE, saying that "fear supported the regime" until one day that "a man" had a dream that created the most "beautiful revolution" in the 20th century; PCP said that the revolution was a "dream", that constructed the hope for a better life; BE said that the 25 April saved the country and criticized the "Salazar mourners" and "former regime nostalgics"; IL, like CDS, criticized Marcelo's tone regarding the former colonies saying that "history is not debt"; CHEGA, rather Ventura, didn't had a prepared speech and gave an impromptu speech. He said all the freedoms conquered have been lost or been leftdown, talked about the current "rotten regime in Portugal" and also criticized Marcelo for the colonies controversy; PS said that the 25 April is not "only history or memory, but victory" and criticized those who want to cut women rights; The PSD said that parties should "refuse to allow extremists to radicalize society" and that much more than remembering the past, we should "renew a commitment to the future".

Speaker Aguiar-Branco said that if the 25 April had failed, the country would have "a worse tomorrow", and paid homage to the last victims of PIDE during the 25 April 1974, which were assassinated by shots fired from the political police headquarters. President Marcelo said "we must have the humility to always prefer democracy, even imperfect, to dictatorship", and paid an homage to the "fathers of democracy", Soares, Sá Carneiro, Cunhal, Freitas do Amaral and also Ramalho Eanes.

[Mike88]

25 April 50-year celebrations:

Alongside the state protocol ceremonies, the traditional march through downtown Lisbon also took place. This year, the turnout appears to have been the highest in recent decades, with people filling the entire Liberty Avenue and the Restauradores Square:

https://twitter.com/sicnoticias/status/1783855757546463298

“It is not possible to give a certain number, but it will most likely be one of the biggest ever”: this is how SIC Notícias reporters described the sea of people who paraded in Lisbon on the 50th anniversary of the 25th of April.

The aerial images captured by SIC Notícias show Avenida da Liberdade completely filled, from the Marquês de Pombal roundabout to Restauradores.

[Mike88]

First poll after the election:

Intercampus poll for CM/Negócios newspapers and CMTV:

Vote share %: (after 7.4% of undecideds are excluded and compared with the March 2024 election results)

28.7% PS (+0.7)
24.3% PSD/CDS/PPM (-4.5)
15.6% CHEGA (-2.5)
  9.7% BE (+5.3)
  7.9% IL (+3.0)
  5.7% Livre (+2.5)
  2.9% PAN (+0.9)
  2.3% CDU (-0.9)
  2.9% Others/Invalid (-4.6)

Poll conducted between 18 and 23 April 2024. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Government says "NO" to President Marcelo on compensations to former colonies:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1784277472923861460

Government responds to Marcelo and says there is no "reparation process" for former colonies

After Marcelo's controversial statements regarding compensations to former colonies, earlier this week, and with the President pressing on the topic today, saying that the country needs to repair the consequences of colonialism, even giving suggestions like debt pardons, cooperation and/or credit lines, the government gave an official response. Luís Montenegro's government said, in a statement, that there are no previous or current plans in this matter, following the line of previous governments, pressing that the Government, and the President of the Republic, have been having "gestures and cooperation programs for the recognition of historical truth with exemption and impartiality". The government also listed a series of projects financed by the Portuguese State in former colonies, like reconstruction of heritage sites.

[CumbrianLefty]

First poll after the election

PS back ahead already?

[Mike88]

First poll after the election

PS back ahead already?

Well, the last few weeks have not been a "success" for the new government, to put it mildly. However, the poll still has both PS and AD within the margin of error, so it's basically a tie, just like the March election results were. Plus, take Portuguese polls with a grain of salt, as in this poll, BE, and also IL, have odd results that don't make sense, but Intercampus has a history of oversampling minor parties, especially BE and IL.

[Mike88]

Political update:

- 17 parties and coalitions are on the ballot for the 9 June 2024 European Parliament elections:

Abbreviation; Name; Ideology, European group

ADN - National Democratic Alternative, rightwing, none
BE - Left Bloc, leftwing, GUE/NGL
CH - CHEGA, far-right, ID
E - Rise Up, far-right, none
IL - Liberal Initiative, center-right, Renew
L - Livre, center-left, Greens/EFA
MAS - Socialist Alternative Movement, left-wing, none
MPT - Earth Party, center-right, EPP
NC - We, the Citizens, center-right, Renew
ND - New Right, rightwing, none
PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left, Greens/EFA
PCP-PEV - Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), leftwing, GUE/NGL
PPD/PSD.CDS-PP.PPM - AD - Democratic Alliance, center-right, EPP
PS - Socialist Party, center-left, S&D
PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, center-left, none
RIR - React, Include, Recycle, syncretic, none
VP - Volt Portugal, center-left, Volt Europe

- The day was also marked by the long running controversy surrounding the financial situation of the Santa Casa da Misericórdia, the State run charity that also controls the betting industry in Portugal, as the Government fired the current management, nominated by the PS:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1784994243099885595

Government dismisses provider of Santa Casa da Misericórdia

The AD government has "fired" the current administration of Santa Casa da Misericórdia, the State run charity that also controls the betting/lottery business, due to the bad financial situation of the institution. The current administration, nominated by the PS and headed by fomer PS Health minister Ana Jorge, already inherited a "ruinous" financial situation with the Santa Casa in near bankruptcy after the administration before Ms. Jorge, invested in betting deals in Brazil and everything went bust, making the institution lose millions and millions of euros. The then administration then entered in "blame war" with the previous PS government, with the then government saying they knew nothing about the deals, while the administration pressed that the government was always informed. Because of the bad situation, Santa Casa was receiving "money injections" by the State to be at float and, now, the Government "fired" the whole administration citting no strategic plans plus cuts in social supports for people in need. The Government will now have to nominate a new administration, but accusations of this being a "political cleansing" are starting.

[Mike88]

Day of tough accusations between PS and PSD:

- On the cabinet briefing, this Thursday afternoon, Finance Minister, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, accused the former PS government of signing spending bills worth 1 billion euros that were not programmed by the budget:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1786024493439455432

Deficit of 600 million in March: "The budget situation is much worse than the previous Government announced"

The Finance minister said that the previous government, besides leaving some social services in a state of "chaos", he said, also failed to control spending while it was under a caretaker capacity. In fact, the last budget numbers until March 2024, shows that in just 3 months, the surplus has turned into a deficit of around 300 millions euros. Miranda Sarmento pressed that the numbers are worse than what has been announced by the PS and these millions and millions of euros of signed expenses are not within the budget. In response, former Finance minister of the PS, Fernando Medina, accuses Miranda Sarmento of being "unprepared" for the job and of spreading "falsehoods";

- At the same time, the Government faced another "defeat" in Parliament as PS and CHEGA voted to end tolls in several highways:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1786080826997792860

The PS proposal aims to end tolls on the A4 - Transmontana and Túnel do Marão, A13 and A13-1 - Pinhal Interior, A22 - Algarve, A23 - Beira Interior, A24 - Interior Norte, A25 - Beiras Litoral and Alta and A28 - - Minho on the sections between Esposende and Antas and between Neiva and Darque.

It was a very schizophrenic debate, this one of ending/reducing highway tolls. The Government had a proposal to reduce prices in highway tools, while PS had a proposal to end tolls in highways that, prior to 2011, were free. Tolls in these formerly free highways were introduced by PM José Sócrates (PS) in 2011 and in the last 9 years, the PS refused to end tolls in these highways, but now, the PS itself proposed to end them. CHEGA was at first against the idea of ending these tolls, but at the last minute, Ventura changed his mind and decided to vote alongside the PS. The PSD/CDS are pressing more and more on the "negative government coalition" between PS and CHEGA, accusing the PS of blocking the government and of hypocrisy for their change of position. An accusation also supported by all parties, left to right, that despite supporting the PS proposal, the Socialists change in position is embarrassing. The proposal passed with the votes of PS, CHEGA, BE, PCP, Livre and PAN, with only PSD, CDS voting against and IL abstaining. This measure is set to cost the State between 157 to 180 million euros;

Well, if nothing changes, I will have no highway tolls next year. But, I will only believe it when I see it.

[Mike88]

Political update:

- The last few days have been very tense politicaly. The "clash" between PS and PSD regarding the deficit is not going away, with the PS insisting that the current Finance minister, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, knows "nothing" about public finances, while the government insists that Costa's government, under a caretaker capacity, signed more than 1 billion euros in expenses beyond the budget. The media is reporting that in the last 3 months of Costa's government, 1,2 billion euros in new expenses were signed and that the monthly budget updates show this. The PS presses that there is a difference between the numbers given to the EU and those in cash. Who's right? Only time will tell.

- Proof of this "surprise" budget info, seems to be the gridlock in the negotiations between the Government and several unions, from police, to teachers and others. Police unions are rejecting the government's proposal to increase supports to police officers, saying it is an "outrage", the government proposes a 1,050 yearly support, while unions demand a monthly 1,026 support. Negotiations will continue, but the mood is tense. On teachers, the government will start giving back frozen career and wage progressions in September, but only 20% per year. Unions wanted more and point that in the process, teachers will lose some rights;

- The "negative coalitions" between PS and CHEGA are also in the news, with Pedro Nuno Santos rejecting any kind of coalition and pointing that, in the last 30 days, the PS in opposition did more than the PSD in government and that never has a government started this badly. PM Montenegro, in a speech at a dinner, said that despite all of the "negative coalitions" and "deficit surprises", the government is firm, even though one of his government members, Secretary of State for Agriculture, Emídio Sousa, told party members in a meeting that "new elections will happen soon". Adding to this, one of Costa's former Finance Ministers, João Leão (2020-22), said in an interview that without a majority and with the constant votes against the government in Parliament, things could go out of control and undermine public accounts;

- The Madeira snap election has been very low profile, but, in the last few days it was revealed that CHEGA's main candidate, Miguel Castro, was caught, by the police, driving under alchool influence and paid a 500 euros fine. The case is still not closed and Mr. Castro can still be punished with a driving ban;

[Mike88]

CHEGA files bizarre criminal complaint against President Marcelo due to his idea of reparations to former colonies, but... it's dead on arrival:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1787900031766511830

Chega advances with complaint against the President of the Republic

After President Marcelo's "trainwreck" statements two weeks ago, on possivel money reparations to former Portuguese colonies, Ventura has been constantly accusing Marcelo of "betrayal to the homeland", and warned that he could file a criminal complaint against the President. Many "rolled their eyes" to this bizarre threath as it doesn't have any legal path, but, this Tuesday, Ventura announced that the party would indeed file a criminal complaint against President Marcelo for crimes of betrayal to the homeland, and pressed that several legal experts agree with the party, but refused to name "these" legal experts. Ventura accused Marcelo of making serious accusations saying that many people told him that Marcelo's remarks were a "betrayal of Portugal, its memory and its history" and that the President no longer represents the national interest.

Of course this will go nowhere, as even CHEGA's caucus was divided on this move and even Ventura, himself a well respected law expert, showed in his press statement, doubts of his own decision. Plus, it needs a 2/3 majority to pass in Parliament and PSD and PS will block it. Just another ludicrous presentation from CHEGA.

[Mike88]

A few more updates:

- Government approves support for poorer pensioners, but PS says the government is "stealing" their policies:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1788557115570655526

Solidarity Supplement for the Elderly increases by 50 euros in June

PM Montenegro announced this afternoon a series of policies directed to poorer pensioners, from an increase of the Solidarity Supplement for the Elderly (CSI) to 600 euros, free prescription drugs for pensioners with this support and the scrapping of the rule which depends on the sons and daughters' income for the allocation of this subsidy. Montenegro says that this policy is a "justice policy" that it will reach to 145,000 pensioners and will start as of next June. The PS says that this is a good policy but points that the government is using their policies, with caucus leader Alexandra Leitão saying "it's a PS policy, not an AD one";

- The government faced another "defeat" in Parliament, this time regarding housing as CHEGA sided with the PS and approved the Socialists' tax policies for housing. The housing debate was called by IL in order to revoke the controversial "More Housing" package from 2023, but the PSD did not join the Liberals and CHEGA decided to support the PS' tax policies of deductions of rents in income tax. CHEGA also rejected the PSD/CDS housing policy advise to the government;

- And at the same time, PSD and PS are trying to reach a deal regarding the IRS tax cuts fiasco from two weeks ago:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1788339768373227820

PSD admits calibrating IRS reduction and changing the lower levels. Negotiations with the PS are already underway

Two weeks ago, the government lost the "first round" in Parliament regarding tax cuts as the Socialists' proposal approved, again with the help of CHEGA. Now, the PSD is negotiating with the PS a "common solution", but, here both parties are trying different tactics: PSD wants to give the image of a "dialogue" party, while the PS does not want to be seen as too attached to the PSD and instead is suggesting presenting their own final tax solution;

How will this end? Well, everyone is coming to the conclusion that a January 2025 snap election is becoming a foregone conclusion. The EP election results could very well decide the fate of this Government.

[Mike88]

After the housing vote defeat, the Government presents a new housing package called "Build Portugal":

The Government's press conference announcing the policies

PM Montenegro presented this afternoon a new housing policy package, called "Build Portugal", that erases and changes many of the housing policies presented by former PM Costa in his "More housing" policies a year ago. The policy package has 30 measures that, according to the government, will be implemented in the next four months. Some of the policies are: Changes in soil laws allowing the use of rustic land to build houses; Credit lines for "build to rent" schemes; VAT reduction to 6% for housing rehabilitation and construction of houses with limits in cost; Speed up the construction of 25,000 new houses; Repeal of the mandatory lease of vacant houses; Repeal of Airbnb taxes and devolution to city halls of the power to issue licenses for new Airbnbs; Exemption of housing taxes for young people until 35 years old;

Luís Montenegro said that not all is bad, regarding current housing policies, but much more needs to be done, inviting all parties to give their contribution saying he's open to add some Opposition policies to the housing strategy. He added that the new policies intent to give more "confidence" to the sector, pointing that Costa's previous policies damaged a lot the trust in the State.

[Mike88]

Madeira election update:

The official campaign for the snap regional elections of 26 May starts this Sunday. The campaign has been, so far, very boring, with little coverage, no polls, and a sense of "whatever". We'll see if this mood changes in the next two weeks. Anyway, here's a summary of the campaigns of the main parties:

PSD - Social Democratic Party

Listening, clarifying and being close to our citizens is something that characterizes our Party, on a daily basis, because it is with them that we work daily, always thinking about what is best for our Earth.
In downtown Funchal, we reiterate, once again, our commitments for the next Legislature. And that is what we remain focused on, towards another electoral victory on May 26th, a victory that is essential for our collective future! We count on everyone! Always for Madeira!

PS - Socialist Party

We need to implement the single regional pass and make public transport free for those under 25 and over 60.
In Machico, with people, we saw that this incentive to use public transport is considered an important contribution to reducing monthly family expenses and accelerating more sustainable mobility in Madeira.
For candidate Ricardo Franco, this initiative is an important step towards generating great financial relief in families' pockets and towards having a Region that increasingly values the environment.

JPP - Together for the People

Élvio Sousa, JPP candidate for Presidency of the Regional Government, once again addressed the issue of #ports in #RAM. A freebie that favored the operator for decades, but even after an independent study said that the operator should pay the Region an annual rent amount of around 4 million euros, the Government of Albuquerque "offered" an affordable rent of around of half a million euros, which he only started paying in 2023.

CH - CHEGA

Dear companions, activists and supporters, Madeirans in general.
Tomorrow our #CHEGA Campaign Tent will be in Funchal from 10:30 between Largo do Chafariz and Largo do Phelps, come out, come and learn about our party and our proposals for Madeira and Madeirans.
-Transparency
-Fight against corruption
-Health
-Housing
-Transport
Between others. These are the flags of CHEGA which states that this time:
- MADEIRA REALLY HAS TO CHANGE!
Join us!!!

CDS - CDS-People's Party

Presentation of CDS-PP candidates for the Regional Legislative Elections, on May 26th.

CDU - Unitarian Democratic Coalition

ALWAYS TOGETHER CELEBRATING APRIL!

IL - Liberal Initiative

MAKE THE DIFFERENCE
Speech by Nuno Morna at the presentation of the Liberal Initiative Candidacy for the Regional Elections.

PAN - People, Animals, Nature

The candidacy, under the motto, “FORCE OF NATURE”, presents its candidates.
The head of the list is Mónica Freitas, just 28 years old.
Together we will fight for a greener and fairer Madeira for everyone!

BE - Left Bloc

It's a love story!
It's Chega that PSD-Madeira likes and it's PSD-Madeira that Chega likes.
In the last elections, Chega was trying to form a coalition with PSD-Madeira.
This time, let's do it differently.
The key to changing Madeira is in the Bloc

[Mike88]

Immigration: Government changes rules for Portuguese speaking immigrants visas and now demands evidence that they have means to survive in Portugal while looking for work.

https://twitter.com/24sapo/status/1790070543825207550

Portuguese-speaking citizens who wish to enter Portugal with a CPLP visa will have to prove means of subsistence until they find work, but if they wish they can opt for another visa, which allows movement in Europe, according to a government source.

The Government announced, today, that the rules for Portuguese-speaking citizens (CPLP) that wish to come to Portugal will change. From now on, immigrants from Portuguese-speaking countries will have to show evidence that they have enough means to survive in Portugal while they are searching for work. The government points that everyone is welcome to come to Portugal, but that people have rights and should not end up in poverty and homelessness, which is currently, unfortunately, the outcome of many. The government will also give a choice to immigrants to pick which kind of visa they want, as CPLP visas don't allow entry to other EU countries, while other visas do. The previous rules forced Portuguese-speaking citizens to accept the CPLP visa, which barred them from entering in other EU countries.

Portugal is facing a lot of problems in legalizing immigrants, with the new border control agency, AIMA, already a very controversy decision, having several operational issues with legalization processes just pilling up, the latest forecast is of 500,000 cases yet to be processed, plus, in just 6 months of existence, AIMA has already more than 7,600 legal cases against them due to lack of response and irregularities. Parties are reacting as expected, with the PS, which created this new agency while in government, saying time is needed for things to stabilize, while PSD/CDS says the shutdown of the former border control agency, SEF, was a big mistake.

[Mike88]

The "New Lisbon Airport" saga had a new chapter today: PM Montenegro announced the "definitive" location and that it will be called Luís de Camões International Airport.

Montenegro's statement with the airport announcement

One of the longest soap operas in Portuguese politics, that spanned two different regimes, had a new episode today. PM Montenegro announced that the new Lisbon airport, a projected started in 1960's, will be located in Alcochete, in the south bank of the Tagus river, and it will be called "Luís de Camões International Airport". However, the government says that airport will only be operational in 10-15 years, so, in the meantime, Lisbon's Portela Airport, will have expansion works in order to manage the increase in demand. It will be the only airport of the city, as when it's completed, Portela airport will be shutdown. In terms of costs, the government does not commit to a specific number, but says it will cost between 6-9 billion euros, and regarding this, the PM said that they are studying a solution in which taxpayers will not pay for the construction, but rather the Airports of Portugal company (ANA) through airport taxes. The PM also announced the "resurrection" of the Lisbon-Madrid high-speed railway, that was put aside by former PM Costa, and the construction of a third bridge in the Tagus estuary.

In reaction, the majority of parties "applauded" the government's decision, except CHEGA and PAN: Pedro Nuno Santos (PS) said he totally supports the government's decision, saying it's very important to the country; BE and PCP also agree with the decision but want to know the quid pro quos given to ANA airports; Livre said it's positive that the government followed the studies that pointed to Alcochete; while CHEGA criticized the government for not looking into other options and PAN wants new environmental and safety reports.

10-15 years? Berlin Airport lasted nearly 15 years to be completed and it was an expansion of an existing one. I'm still of the opinion this airport will never be built and we'll only believe it when I see it.