2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[junior chįmp]

So Dems are going to win 80+ seats because it is trading at 20c, but Roy Moore trading at 80c means nothing? lol

DecisiondeskHQ gave the VA HoD a 4% chance of flipping. The fact that it might end up 50-50 is an ominous sign. Personally, I think 2018 will be the early stages of a realignment with a bunch of older white male Republicans being thrown out (as was the case in VA).

There are definitely many signs 2018 could be a good year for the Democrats, I don't disagree with you there. I just think discussions about winning in Wyoming and Alabama go just a wee tad bit overboard.

Possibly....but long term Alabama is an inevitability...Wyoming less so. Virtually no young person looks at the GOP today and thinks I wanna be a part of that. It'll take the GOP a generation to build back from failing to recruit Millennials

[junior chįmp]

So Dems are going to win 80+ seats because it is trading at 20c, but Roy Moore trading at 80c means nothing? lol

DecisiondeskHQ gave the VA HoD a 4% chance of flipping. The fact that it might end up 50-50 is an ominous sign. Personally, I think 2018 will be the early stages of a realignment with a bunch of older white male Republicans being thrown out (as was the case in VA).

There are definitely many signs 2018 could be a good year for the Democrats, I don't disagree with you there. I just think discussions about winning in Wyoming and Alabama go just a wee tad bit overboard.

Possibly....but long term Alabama is an inevitability...Wyoming less so. Virtually no young person looks at the GOP today and thinks I wanna be a part of that. It'll take the GOP a generation to build back from failing to recruit Millennials

You must not have met the Atlas RINOs

I'm okay with Republicans choosing to ignore demographics. It's pretty much all downhill from here on out for them

[Santander]

Possibly....but long term Alabama is an inevitability...Wyoming less so. Virtually no young person looks at the GOP today and thinks I wanna be a part of that. It'll take the GOP a generation to build back from failing to recruit Millennials

Uh, walk on to a predominantly white college campus and see the undergrad business majors. They are blue blazer-wearing, classmate-raping, binge drinking, Pop that P-ing, RINO Tom-ing deplorables.

[Devout Centrist]

Possibly....but long term Alabama is an inevitability...Wyoming less so. Virtually no young person looks at the GOP today and thinks I wanna be a part of that. It'll take the GOP a generation to build back from failing to recruit Millennials

Uh, walk on to a predominantly white college campus and see the undergrad business majors. They are blue blazer-wearing, classmate-raping, binge drinking, Pop that P-ing, RINO Tom-ing deplorables.

He's not wrong, folks

[Virginiá]

Conflating Trump disapproval with being pro-Democrat is a dangerous mistake.

Part of what I quoted were separate questions which showed 18-29 year olds preferred Democrats for Congress by a 2:1 margin - same as 2008, more or less. See the quotation box. The approval image was different from that.

[junior chįmp]

Quinnipiac has Democrats +14%

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[Ebsy]

The wave is coming.

[BuckeyeNut]

Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor, the youngest statewide officeholder in Franklin County history, has ruled out running to replace Pat Tiberi.

[Holmes]

Quinnipiac has Democrats +14%

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Add 2 points to this margin:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2012&off=3&elect=0&f=0

It will be more, only because CA will be DvD.

[LimoLiberal]

Republicans surging after Tax Reform passage in Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot Tracking:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170901-20171205/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

(You have to click on "Midterms: How will you vote?")

[Hindsight was 2020]

Republicans surging after Tax Reform passage in Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot Tracking:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170901-20171205/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

(You have to click on "Midterms: How will you vote?")

Down 7% is "surging"?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Republicans surging after Tax Reform passage in Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot Tracking:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170901-20171205/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

(You have to click on "Midterms: How will you vote?")

Interesting, but let's see if other polls show anything similar.  The 538 average doesn't show a similar trend.

[Brittain33]

Republicans surging after Tax Reform passage in Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot Tracking:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170901-20171205/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

(You have to click on "Midterms: How will you vote?")

Were you the poster predicting a big Northam loss in the days up until the election, LimoLiberal?

[IceSpear]

Republicans surging after Tax Reform passage in Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot Tracking:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170901-20171205/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

(You have to click on "Midterms: How will you vote?")

You must have really had to dig hard for this one, lol.

[Brittain33]

Republicans surging after Tax Reform passage in Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot Tracking:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170901-20171205/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

(You have to click on "Midterms: How will you vote?")

You must have really had to dig hard for this one, lol.

On the State Legislator Special Election megathread, he's speculating about trends because Rs just won a state senate seat in MA after a MS non-partisan election where the Indy announced after winning he was caucusing for Republicans. Combined with his gloom and doom on the Northam threads, it's clear what's going on here.

[LimoLiberal]

Republicans surging after Tax Reform passage in Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot Tracking:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170901-20171205/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

(You have to click on "Midterms: How will you vote?")

You must have really had to dig hard for this one, lol.

On the State Legislator Special Election megathread, he's speculating about trends because Rs just won a state senate seat in MA after a MS non-partisan election where the Indy announced after winning he was caucusing for Republicans. Combined with his gloom and doom on the Northam threads, it's clear what's going on here.

He's user Andrew_1918 on RRH, in case anyone was wondering. Not that hard to figure it out if one reads enough of their posts

I've never used RRH in my life. Don't know why you think that.

[Ebsy]

When are we going to get around to banning Reuters-Ipsos? Hard to find a more worthless piece of garbage.

[Virginiá]

I don't know if this is an actual trend, but I swear I've seen a few polls now (including above Q poll) showing Democrats posting better numbers among 65+ than 50-64, which in some ways would make sense as Democrats have generally performed better with a small sliver of voters that recently moved into the 65+ age bracket. If 2018 did have Democrats doing better than usual among those voters, it would go a ways when combined with their growing advantage among white college grads. Both demos are/were a big reason the GOP has such an advantage in lower turnout elections.

[136or142]

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NC CD-13: Atty & philanthropist Kathy Manning (D) launches run vs Cong Ted Budd (R) ... and he's concerned enough about it that Budd launches anti-Manning website within one day of her announcement.

[BuckeyeNut]

Conflating Trump disapproval with being pro-Democrat is a dangerous mistake.

Part of what I quoted were separate questions which showed 18-29 year olds preferred Democrats for Congress by a 2:1 margin - same as 2008, more or less. See the quotation box. The approval image was different from that.

Ah, guess I misread your post. But Harvard's new study doesn't have me feeling comfortable.

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Granted, millennials are 22-37 at this point, so not quite the same age group you referred to.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Conflating Trump disapproval with being pro-Democrat is a dangerous mistake.

Part of what I quoted were separate questions which showed 18-29 year olds preferred Democrats for Congress by a 2:1 margin - same as 2008, more or less. See the quotation box. The approval image was different from that.

Ah, guess I misread your post. But Harvard's new study doesn't have me feeling comfortable.

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Granted, millennials are 22-37 at this point, so not quite the same age group you referred to.

Shut up, I'm a millenial. Gen Z is 2000 on. Any other definition of millenial is dogpoop.

[Doimper]

Conflating Trump disapproval with being pro-Democrat is a dangerous mistake.

Part of what I quoted were separate questions which showed 18-29 year olds preferred Democrats for Congress by a 2:1 margin - same as 2008, more or less. See the quotation box. The approval image was different from that.

Ah, guess I misread your post. But Harvard's new study doesn't have me feeling comfortable.

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Granted, millennials are 22-37 at this point, so not quite the same age group you referred to.

Shut up, I'm a millenial. Gen Z is 2000 on. Any other definition of millenial is dogpoop.

The definition of what constitutes a millennial still hasn't really settled, but I've generally heard cutoffs ranging from 1995 to 1998.

[Santander]

Yeah, if you're not old enough to have voted for Obama, you're not a millennial. It's called the Obama generation for a reason.

[Ebsy]

Having been born in 1996, I definitely feel like I have a lot more in common with the young Millennial cohort than Gen Z.

[Virginiá]

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Granted, millennials are 22-37 at this point, so not quite the same age group you referred to.

That's not too surprising, especially after 2016. Millennials have mostly grown up watching nothing get done, and have had to watch the old guard in the Democratic Party waffle around with no clear direction.

This is where the idea of a realignment fits in. Millennials will probably remain dissatisfied with the party until a charismatic leader takes control and shifts the political landscape while also delivering results. The party is still the party of Millennials, but someone needs to step up and fix the brand, because people like Schumer and Pelosi sure as hell aren't going to do it. The can't.