The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

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I'm suprised Palin isn't at least 2nd. I don't think she is going to win the nomination, but she is probably more likely than Jindal of Huckabee.

40% of America love Palin. Whether they will still love her in 3 years, I don't know. I like her a lot, but I won't vote for her, because I know, that unless Obama's approval ratings are below 40%, she will lose. I would feel much more comfortable voting for Crist, even though we don't agree on some issues.

Like I said I don't think she will end up winning the nomination, but I still think she is more likely than most potential Republican candidates at this point, many of whom probably won't run at all.

To be honest, I'm not at all convinced that Palin will run either.  I'd say that, for example, Palin is probably less likely to run than Pawlenty.  But Jindal, OTOH, is *really* unlikely to run.  No way should he be as high as 17.0.  (Although, if Jindal did run, I think he'd be more likely to win the nom. than Palin.  Palin seems far more likely to self-destruct during the long primary campaign.)

Oh, and for amusement, here are the 2012 Democratic nomination odds:

Obama 85.1
Clinton 10.0
Biden 8.0

I'd love to know how Biden was doing at intrade in March 2005 for '08.

[You kip if you want to...]

Jindal has dropped to third place, and Palin is down to 10.0, which is as low as she's been since mid-November:

Romney 24.1
Huckabee 13.9
Jindal 12.1
Sanford 11.0
Palin 10.0
Pawlenty 10.0

I would've put my money on Romney anyway at this point.