The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Yelnoc]

Wow Pawlenty jumped.  I wonder how long that will last.

[Yelnoc]

If you buy the shares of the winning candidate and never sell them, do you lose money or does the system some how reward you for being correct? 

[Yelnoc]

If you buy the shares of the winning candidate and never sell them, do you lose money or does the system some how reward you for being correct? 

Of course you get money if you have shares of the winning candidate.  That's the whole point.  People use the site to gamble on who will win the nomination with real money.  Those who are correct win money and those who are incorrect lose money.

People buying a share of, say, Pawlenty at 17.7 are making a contract with someone else who's betting against him at the same price.  So the person betting on him will put up $1.77, while the person betting against him will put up $8.23, for a total of $10.00 between you.  If you hold onto that contract all the way until the 2012 RNC, then if Pawlenty wins the nomination, you get all $10.00, and the person who bet against you gets zero.  While if Pawlenty doesn't win the nomination, then the person who bet against him gets the $10.00, while you get zero.  All the contracts "cash out" at the time of the RNC, when the nominee is officially decided.

Of course, your goal may not necessarily be to hold onto the contract all the way until the convention.  If, for example, the price on the Pawlenty contracts rises to 25.0, and you think that's too high, then you can sell it off to someone else, and make a profit.  Or conversely, if something happens that makes you think it's a lot less likely that he's going to win, you might sell off your contract for a loss, because at least you'll get something.

Ah, thanks for clearing that up.  With that in mind, Romney, Daniels, and Huckabee seem to have the most loyal buyers, considering their lack of fluctuation.  I wonder if Huckabee's price will bottom out soon, though?

[Yelnoc]

Even at this late point, I think everyone with or over 5.0 has a shot.  This is going to be one unusual primary season.

[Yelnoc]

I wonder what caused Palin and Huckabee to rise?

[Yelnoc]

That 2.8 for Gingrich is pretty amazing.  About half of Huntsman.

Yeah, Gingrich's numbers are pathetic.

now do yall see y Pence would have been a strong contender?

Anybody that acts like an adult would be competitive.

[Yelnoc]

does ryan refer to paul ryan?

I would assume so.

[Yelnoc]

I need a thousand-sided di. (die, sp?)

[Yelnoc]

I need a thousand-sided di. (die, sp?)

http://rolz.org/

(20 seconds on google lol)

just type Xd1000 into the box in the top left corner, with X being the number of dice you want to roll.

You da bomb!

1-619  Obama
620-725  Romney
726-778  Trump
779-827  Pawlenty
828-870  Daniels
871-911  Huntsman
912-936  Paul
937-960  Huckabee
961-976  Palin
977-984  Bachmann
985-990  Clinton
991-996  Gingrich
997-999  Biden
1000       Divide by Zero

Roll 1: 451 Obama
Roll 2: 374 Obama
Roll 3: 782 Pawlenty

This is fun.  People should write timeline like this

[Yelnoc]

Looking at those numbers, Romney will collapse and Pawlenty will take the nomination over Daniels.  He then will then proceed to lose to Obama in the General election, making Daniels the heir apparent for 2016 (who also falls apart then?).

[Yelnoc]

Huntsman has really surged.  I wonder if he has people buying his shares as part of some pre-campaign strategy?

[Yelnoc]

No way am I betting.  Huckabee is too unpredictable for my cash.

[Yelnoc]

If two black men are the candidates for president then I will be very curious to see how will all these Appalachian whites vote.

For the Republican Party.  Believe it or not, the south is not as racist as it was a decade ago.  Not to mention that rednecks tend not to vote.

[Yelnoc]

Can we get a comparison to about this time in 2007?

[Yelnoc]

That's awful to hear.  My condolences to the Delaney's.

[Yelnoc]

Let the fools buy.

[Yelnoc]

I would say the cut-off for a candidate to win the primaries has moved from 5 to 10.  Meaning Romney, Pawlenty, and Huntsman are the only viable options.

[Yelnoc]

They need a "will Perry run?" market.

[Yelnoc]

They need a "will Perry run?" market.

That's what this is:

Will the following people run for president in 2012?

Bachmann 85.0
Huntsman 84.9
Perry 65.0
Giuliani 40.0
Palin 31.1
Bolton 13.9
Pataki 10.0
Christie 9.9
Trump 6.8
DeMint 6.0

My apologies, I can't read

[Yelnoc]

He's probably buying shares of himself.

[Yelnoc]

If he announces, Perry Jumps into the mid-high twenties to Romney's detriment and Bachmann's demise.  If he passes, Bachmann surges and Pawlenty and Huntsman both recover.

[Yelnoc]

Talk about bandwagon....

[Yelnoc]

I wonder what caused the Palin surge?  Also, whoever is still holding onto Clinton is a fool.

[Yelnoc]

Also, whoever is still holding onto Clinton is a fool.

Hint: it's people that don't expect Obama to be alive a year from now.


EDIT: Also, Bachmann is a bargain at those prices.  Buy buy buy.

You think Clinton would primary Biden immediately after the death of the president?

[Yelnoc]

I wonder what caused the Palin surge?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20085110-503544.html

September is too late, IMO.