Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Summary of the Italian election (NSFW)

[TheSaint250]

Well, this is certainly one for the history books. The failure of the two "main" parties, the rise of anti-establishment parties, and the ensuing chaos will surely help define politics going forward, especially within in the EU.

[Diouf]

M5S swept the three Sardinia seats. Now we are only waiting for Lazio, and we should have the full results.

Centre-right 52
Lega 20
Forza Italia 20
FdI 10
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 41

Centre-left 13
PD 8
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1
Italia Europa Insieme 1
Civica Popolare 1

How did you figure out the party identity of the FPTP winners?  None of the sites I looked at has that info.

Googling and Facebooking the winning candidates to find the information. For some, it was a bit hard, so it's possible that there is a mistake or two. It takes some time, which is why I haven't done it for the Chamber

[jaichind]

So M5S is the party of the youth.  Center-Right bloc the bloc of the Middle aged, and Center-Left bloc the bloc of the Elderly. 

[Andrea]

lazio 2 M5S 1 +Europa, 6 cdx, 1 toss up

I thought there are 2 tossups (3rd (center-right ahead) and 4th (M5S ahead))

3rd has only one polling station left to report though. Oveturning a 600+ votes gap with only one precint is quite a task

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

At least the youth didn't go for the League. I can somewhat tolerate the Movement, especially because of some of their views.

I should connect with my cousin on facebook to learn what party he voted for. I have a bad feeling it was LN though. But he did root for Hillary in 2016.

[jaichind]

How did you figure out the party identity of the FPTP winners?  None of the sites I looked at has that info.

Googling and Facebooking the winning candidates to find the information. For some, it was a bit hard, so it's possible that there is a mistake or two. It takes some time, which is why I haven't done it for the Chamber

You got to be kidding me.  Well, I guess in Italy there is less of a focus on the party ID of the MP. In which case I would expect laws around defecting and poaching to be fairly weak or non-existent.  In which case if no formal deal be worked out to form a majority then the party that has been tasked to try to form a majority can use various poaching techniques to get to a majority.

[Tender Branson]

I should have sticked with my original prediction which had the Lega 4 points ahead of Berlusconi.



It was only when I looked up historical election results on Wikipedia that I decided to put Berlusconi ahead ...

[jaichind]

I should have sticked with my original prediction which had the Lega 4 points ahead of Berlusconi.



It was only when I looked up historical election results on Wikipedia that I decided to put Berlusconi ahead ...

Yes, but your bloc-by-bloc prediction were pretty accurate.  Congrats.  The League surge is very surprising.  What is a shock is that they can get to mid to high single digits of the PR vote in the South.  If they can pull that off they deserve to that 17+ vote share.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Like I said: Italy counts slower than Atlanta.

It's quite normal for the full count of American elections not to be entirely finished for weeks and there are invariably all kinds of nasty disputes about procedural irregularities. You're confusing the tendency of your media to make Calls very early with the completion of a count.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, this is certainly one for the history books. The failure of the two "main" parties, the rise of anti-establishment parties, and the ensuing chaos will surely help define politics going forward, especially within in the EU.

Every single Italian election since the end of the First Republic has been very dramatic... and has in no way foreshadowed the one that followed.

[TheSaint250]

Well, this is certainly one for the history books. The failure of the two "main" parties, the rise of anti-establishment parties, and the ensuing chaos will surely help define politics going forward, especially within in the EU.

Every single Italian election since the end of the First Republic has been very dramatic... and has in no way foreshadowed the one that followed.

I'm referring to the EU as a whole. If we get a League-led government, it'll be the first ENF government, and the same goes for a M5S-led government and EFDD (yes, I know the groups were founded only 4 years ago). As far as I know, either one would certainly shake up discussions. I'll be interested to see what happens going forward.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Chances of Italeave happening with the current election results?

[Sestak]

Does M5S advocate for a complete cutoff of migrants or just a reduction?

[jaichind]

Chances of Italeave happening with the current election results?

Fairly low.  M5S and Lega has both toned down their anti-EU talk recently.   EUR has really not moved that much as a result of the election result is a sign that there is no expectations if Italy leaving the EU.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Chances of Italeave happening with the current election results?

Fairly low.  M5S and Lega has both toned down their anti-EU talk recently.   EUR has really not moved that much as a result of the election result is a sign that there is no expectations if Italy leaving the EU.

Haven't they shifted more towards migrant control instead?

[jaichind]

From AP:
Italy's ex-Premier Matteo Renzi says his center-left party will not join any government led by the anti-immigrant League party or the populist 5-Star Movement, the two victorious forces in Italy's election.
Renzi said both those parties represent an anti-Europeanism that he would not support and said they had had used "verbal hatred" on his Democratic Party lawmakers. He said Matteo Salvini of the League and Luigi Di Maio of the 5-Stars had called his lawmakers mafiosi, labeled them corrupt and said they had blood on their hands.
Renzi says "if this is who we are, govern without us. Know that our place in this legislation is in the opposition."
Renzi acknowledged that his party suffered a "total defeat" in Sunday's general election and said he would resign as party leader after a new government has been sworn in.

[Sestak]

From AP:
Italy's ex-Premier Matteo Renzi says his center-left party will not join any government led by the anti-immigrant League party or the populist 5-Star Movement, the two victorious forces in Italy's election.
Renzi said both those parties represent an anti-Europeanism that he would not support and said they had had used "verbal hatred" on his Democratic Party lawmakers. He said Matteo Salvini of the League and Luigi Di Maio of the 5-Stars had called his lawmakers mafiosi, labeled them corrupt and said they had blood on their hands.
Renzi says "if this is who we are, govern without us. Know that our place in this legislation is in the opposition."
Renzi acknowledged that his party suffered a "total defeat" in Sunday's general election and said he would resign as party leader after a new government has been sworn in.

Goddammit Renzi.

[Oryxslayer]

I have seem M5S described as EU-critical, not skeptical - but with their way of doing things who knows what positions the party truly holds.

Also, I am presently going through all the Lower Chamber FPTP seats, heres a question. Can anyone tell me why Genoa is a M5S stronghold now? Comparatively, other northern cities still have a Left core and Right suburbs, but Genoa is yellow. This also shows up on the senate map for Genoa as well.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I appreciate the PD's stone stance against euroskepticism, but they're just inadvertently helping Salvini here.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I should have sticked with my original prediction which had the Lega 4 points ahead of Berlusconi.



It was only when I looked up historical election results on Wikipedia that I decided to put Berlusconi ahead ...

Yes, but your bloc-by-bloc prediction were pretty accurate.  Congrats.  The League surge is very surprising.  What is a shock is that they can get to mid to high single digits of the PR vote in the South.  If they can pull that off they deserve to that 17+ vote share.

Is it not possible that the League surge in the south arose because many rightists did not want the aging, convicted Berlusconi, who faces further investigations, as the face of a puppeter of a center right government?

[Cynthia]

Since Renzi is resigning, are there still any value in his words?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Um... why would the PD want to go back into government right now? They've just suffered an unimaginably terrible defeat, one that calls into question every single aspect of their strategy since Prodi came up with the Olive Tree idea over twenty years ago. And this from a position of such seemingly impregnable strength a couple of years ago. And every other political force - especially the ones that did well - ran vicious campaigns (often personally abusive) against them. I mean, come on now...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey, look, a Renzi ally re-elected outside Tuscany!

(lol)

[mappix]

Clickable maps showing the winners of the FPTP constituencies (and largest party/coalition by region):
http://tg24.sky.it/speciali/elezioni/italia/politiche/mappa-elezioni-2018-collegi-uninominali.html
(click on collegi to see the constituencies)