Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[jaichind]

Rome-based Luiss University's CISE headed by prominent political scientist Roberto D'Alimonte just posted an analysis stressing that Five Star got its best results in the areas with more unemployment while the League got more votes in constituencies with more immigrants.

https://cise.luiss.it/cise/2018/03/05/disoccupazione-e-immigrazione-dietro-i-vincitori-del-4-marzo/

[jaichind]

What I am reading from various news wires:

1) Five Star Movement candidate Luigi Di Maio will speak to the media later today and will likely call on President Sergio Mattarella to give Five Star the first chance to form a government, being that they were the most-voted party with about 33 percent of the popular vote.

2) The League's strong showing, winning about 17 percent of the vote and surpassing Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia party in the Center-Right coalition, will make it less likely the League would seek a post-election, anti-establishment alliance with Five Star, even if they had enough seats for a majority.

3) Berlusconi's Center-Right coalition will also demand the right to form a government as their combined votes of more than 35 percent will top Five Star. The coalition will also win the most seats in both chambers, but remain well short of a majority.

[Illiniwek]

What I am reading from various news wires:

1) Five Star Movement candidate Luigi Di Maio will speak to the media later today and will likely call on President Sergio Mattarella to give Five Star the first chance to form a government, being that they were the most-voted party with about 33 percent of the popular vote.

2) The League's strong showing, winning about 17 percent of the vote and surpassing Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia party in the Center-Right coalition, will make it less likely the League would seek a post-election, anti-establishment alliance with Five Star, even if they had enough seats for a majority.

3) Berlusconi's Center-Right coalition will also demand the right to form a government as their combined votes of more than 35 percent will top Five Star. The coalition will also win the most seats in both chambers, but remain well short of a majority.

Since the President is a leftist, he'll probably prefer to give M5S the first opportunity, right? Not that its ideal for him or anything, but still.

[Harlow]

I wish the map was color coded 😭

I've been steadily editing a map of FPTP Senate seats as results come in, this is what I have as of right now.



Blue is center-right coalition
Yellow is M5S
Red is center-left coalition
Gray is other (The two seats in Tyrol are SVP-PATT)

Could you post it? I've looked all over for a live results map colored by party, but I guess there aren't any.

Didn't know imgur didn't work here. Hopefully this site does.



I'll make a map based off of individual parties instead of coalitions later, hopefully to see the Lega-FI split.

[Oryxslayer]

Signing off for the night.

Overall, the big winner tonight is Lega. Benefited from Forza getting screwed in the south, benefited from the populist angst, benefited from the Left vote getting cut in the Red Belt FPTP seats, and finally benefited supremely from the Right wing alliance and pact. We very well could end up with a Lega lead government, a government lead by a party that was dying last election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Since the President is a leftist

He's in the PD, yes. But a leftist? looool...

[Illiniwek]

Since the President is a leftist

He's in the PD, yes. But a leftist? looool...

Apologies. Centre-leftist?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Renzi needs to leave.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Renzi needs to leave.

I can't imagine he doesn't. This is a disaster.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Honestly, I always knew PD was headed for a bad night, but his referendum and his resignation/return really screwed the bloc over.

Anyways, I'm predicting an M5S-PD coalition with Genitiloni as Prime Minister. Renzi is foolish if he thinks either party is gonna want him to be the head.

[Illiniwek]

Honestly, I always knew PD was headed for a bad night, but his referendum and his resignation/return really screwed the bloc over.

Anyways, I'm predicting an M5S-PD coalition with Genitiloni as Prime Minister. Renzi is foolish if he thinks either party is gonna want him to be the head.

It seems the betting markets agree with you on Genitiloni, but could you explain to me why that is / M5S would go along with that?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Honestly, I always knew PD was headed for a bad night, but his referendum and his resignation/return really screwed the bloc over.

Anyways, I'm predicting an M5S-PD coalition with Genitiloni as Prime Minister. Renzi is foolish if he thinks either party is gonna want him to be the head.

It seems the betting markets agree with you on Genitiloni, but could you explain to me why that is / M5S would go along with that?

Well, M5S and their leaders seem to align, policy-wise, more with the Democrats and their Centre-left bloc. The only thing they have in common with the League is their anti-migrant policies, and they have virtually nothing in common with Forza Italia.

The only thing getting in the way of a M5S-PD coalition is their views on the EU. I'm sure the PD is willing to make SOME concessions to the Movement in order to keep Salvini from becoming Prime Minister. One of those is almost certainly going to be ejecting Renzi as their head, which I'm sure the vast majority of their party members are willing to do. He did, after all, just lead them to near-extinction at the polls.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyways, I'm predicting an M5S-PD coalition with Genitiloni as Prime Minister. Renzi is foolish if he thinks either party is gonna want him to be the head.

No chance in hell.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Anyways, I'm predicting an M5S-PD coalition with Genitiloni as Prime Minister. Renzi is foolish if he thinks either party is gonna want him to be the head.

No chance in hell.

There is a chance in hell, believe it or not. You'd be foolish to think neither the PD or the M5S aren't at least considering it.

[Sestak]

Why would the M5S agree to a PD politician when they're the bigger party? Wouldn't it be M5S-PD with Di Maio as PM?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I don't know!

Maybe. I strongly believe that if there is a coalition it will be M5S-PD. As for Gentiloni I was going off of the betting markets.

I'm not a psychic and neither of us know what the party leaders are thinking.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

apparently there's musings that Renzi may be dumped as PD leader in favour of a figure like Mayor of Naples Luigi de Magistris or President of Apulia Region Michele Emiliano.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wouldn't mind Emiliano. As for Renzi being dumped, those aren't simply just "musings". He's finished after tonight.

[Zuza]

Why doesn't Salvini shave? I remember when fascists used to have some form of style for their facial hair, not gross neckbeards.

BTW I've just noticed CasaPound leader's beard:

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know!

Maybe. I strongly believe that if there is a coalition it will be M5S-PD. As for Gentiloni I was going off of the betting markets.

I'm not a psychic and neither of us know what the party leaders are thinking.

Dude, you're some guy from Pennsylvania who's talking out of his ass. Other people in this thread have been following Italian politics for a decade or more.

[Antonio the Sixth]

apparently there's musings that Renzi may be dumped as PD leader in favour of a figure like Mayor of Naples Luigi de Magistris or President of Apulia Region Michele Emiliano.

De Magistris isn't even in the PD.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

apparently there's musings that Renzi may be dumped as PD leader in favour of a figure like Mayor of Naples Luigi de Magistris or President of Apulia Region Michele Emiliano.

De Magistris isn't even in the PD.

Never said it was reliable musings.

It's really weird that we dropped the ball on the last PD leadership election where Renzi was re-elected against some hack and Emiliano. I don't remember it all.

[Antonio the Sixth]

apparently there's musings that Renzi may be dumped as PD leader in favour of a figure like Mayor of Naples Luigi de Magistris or President of Apulia Region Michele Emiliano.

De Magistris isn't even in the PD.

Never said it was reliable musings.

It's really weird that we dropped the ball on the last PD leadership election where Renzi was re-elected against some hack and Emiliano. I don't remember it all.

I was there to talk about it. Yeah, Emiliano would have been nice, but I doubt even he can salvage the PD at this point.

[Beagle]

Can somebody please explain what is going on in the Lucca collegio uninominale?

To wit, the center-left candidate has 26,51%, the M5S has 26,05%, while the center-right candidate has 19,97%... and the eletto sign next to his name. How does this happen?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can somebody please explain what is going on in the Lucca collegio uninominale?

To wit, the center-left candidate has 26,51%, the M5S has 26,05%, while the center-right candidate has 19,97%... and the eletto sign next to his name. How does this happen?

I see the right at 28,38%.