Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[SPQR]

There is no point in speculating over nothing.

It's the exit poll produced for Sky, so it's not exactly the auburgines and oranges crap seen elsewhere.
I absolutely hope that it's wrong, but it's A) realistic and B) scary as hell.

[jaichind]

Sorry if this question got answered already: How are PR seats allocated.  Is there one all Italy list or are there separate lists per region? 

This makes a difference for parties like LN where their PR vote will be very concentrated.  Under the former system LN can benefit from the very little votes it gets outside the North (but they will add up) and under the later system they are all wasted votes.  Also under the later system the small parties will tend to lose out since the threshold to get seats will be higher.

[Illiniwek]

Starting to get nervous.

[jaichind]

[Antonio the Sixth]

There is no point in speculating over nothing.

It's the exit poll produced for Sky, so it's not exactly the auburgines and oranges crap seen elsewhere.
I absolutely hope that it's wrong, but it's A) realistic and B) scary as hell.

All right, but 1. those are partial results with many people left to vote, 2. even "mainstream" exit polls got it badly wrong in 2013.

It also seems odd to focus on specific party results without taking into account broader coalition dynamics. Like, is Lega overperforming across the board, or just taking votes from FI? Is M5S taking more votes from the right or the left? Besides, "wave" is a subjective notion. Arguably any result close to what the polls predicted would be a "wave".

[mvd10]

This reminds me of all the dubious Belgian polls during the last day of the first round of the French presidential election. Wasn't it something like Fillon 27% Le Pen 24% lol?

[Sestak]

When do polls close?

[Oryxslayer]

When do polls close?

20min

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

There will be exit polls at 23?

[palandio]

There will be exit polls at 23?

Yes, but speaking from experience Italian exit polls are amongst the crappiest in the Western world.

[Sestak]

Anywhere good to track results as they come in?

[parochial boy]

It's going to be awful no matter what. Not much point in getting too excited

[Beezer]

It's like Christmas Eve. Where are them polls?

[jaichind]

Looks like five star around 30

[Beezer]

[jaichind]

Both LN and FI around 14 to 15

[Oryxslayer]

Exit polls from RAI, be warned, exit polls as stated before, are notoriously horrible in Italy:

M5S: 29-32
PD: 20.5-23.5
FI: 13-16
LN:  13-16
Fdl: 4-6
LeU: 3-5
+E: 2.5-4.5
Ncl: 1-3
I: 0-2
CP: 0-2

[DavidB.]

M5S and Lega overperformance.

[SunSt0rm]

M5S, Lega and FdL likely have a majority with these numbers. Is such a coalition possible?

[Oryxslayer]

different site

[jaichind]

M5S and Lega overperformance.

For sure M5S.  I think LN mostly in line with pre election polls

[Oryxslayer]

M5S and Lega overperformance.

For sure M5S.  I think LN mostly in line with pre election polls

And that overpreformance isn't all that large, compared to probably what most here were expecting.

[Sestak]

Wait who would become PM in a rightwing government if the current result stands?

[Silent Hunter]

M5S, Lega and FdL likely have a majority with these numbers. Is such a coalition possible?

Possible, but highly unlikely.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this looks mostly in line with polls except for M5S.

And either way, again, Italian exit polls don't mean much.