Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[SPQR]

What times does the polls close and are there links to live results ?

They close at 11 p.m. local time (5 p.m. EST). Not sure about live results.

I remember back in 2013 the results started to come out the morning of the day after the election. Not sure if they will do the same this time.

Erm, no. Results are always given live on the page that FrancoAgo posted right before me.
This year, it will be more complicated due to the new electoral law, with the FPTP/proportional split. For instance, ballots in which the voter marks only the name of the coalition's candidate for the FPTP part, and not that of any party, will then be allocated proportionally across the parties that make up that coalition; but this is done only once all sections from a FPTP seat are counted and reported to the Ministry.
I read an article a couple of days ago on Il Foglio in which the author explained that the biggest parties in the coalitions (PD, FI) might be thus underestimated a bit (up to 1/2%) in the initial reports with respect to parties with no coalition (M5S, LeU).

Anyhow, semi-final results are expected around 2 AM for the Senate, and around 5 AM for the House of Deputies. Then, on Monday afternoon, ballots will be counted for the two regional elections in Lazio and Lombardia.

[jaichind]

I remember back in 2013 the results started to come out the morning of the day after the election. Not sure if they will do the same this time.

Erm, no. Results are always given live on the page that FrancoAgo posted right before me.
This year, it will be more complicated due to the new electoral law, with the FPTP/proportional split. For instance, ballots in which the voter marks only the name of the coalition's candidate for the FPTP part, and not that of any party, will then be allocated proportionally across the parties that make up that coalition; but this is done only once all sections from a FPTP seat are counted and reported to the Ministry.
I read an article a couple of days ago on Il Foglio in which the author explained that the biggest parties in the coalitions (PD, FI) might be thus underestimated a bit (up to 1/2%) in the initial reports with respect to parties with no coalition (M5S, LeU).

Anyhow, semi-final results are expected around 2 AM for the Senate, and around 5 AM for the House of Deputies. Then, on Monday afternoon, ballots will be counted for the two regional elections in Lazio and Lombardia.

If you look at the 2013  uselectionatlas results thread

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169906.0

Results/exit polls came out at around 2/25/2013 9am NY time which is 3PM Rome time.  Was it because voting in 2013 was over 2 days and voting the second day ends 3PM ?

[FrancoAgo]

ì

If you look at the 2013  uselectionatlas results thread

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169906.0

Results/exit polls came out at around 2/25/2013 9am NY time which is 3PM Rome time.  Was it because voting in 2013 was over 2 days and voting the second day ends 3PM ?

Yes

[Tender Branson]

If polls only close at the IMO ridiculous time of 23:00 (11pm), then you guys have all the time to follow the Carinthia state election, where polls already close at the more reasonable time of 17:00 (5pm) ...

[Double Carpet]

Italy has the latest poll closing anywhere in the world I think

Not quite sure why it has to be so late when France/Spain are 8pm, Germany 6pm (and Austria 5pm!)

Does anyone have links for Italian TV stations which won't be geoblocked? (ideally Italian TV not an English-language channel)

Thanks!

DC

[Double Carpet]

Ok have found this!

http://www.raiplay.it/dirette/rainews24?channel=RaiNews

and, I'm sure someone's already explained, so apologies, but are voters allowed to vote for a FPTP candidate of Party A and then Party B in the PR section, or not?

Thanks!

[Tender Branson]

Italy has the latest poll closing anywhere in the world I think

Not quite sure why it has to be so late when France/Spain are 8pm, Germany 6pm (and Austria 5pm!)

Does anyone have links for Italian TV stations which won't be geoblocked? (ideally Italian TV not an English-language channel)

Thanks!

DC

Yeah, a poll closing time of 23:00 is absurd. Even 9pm or 10pm is too late.

The ideal opening times IMO are 8am to 5-6pm, so that the counting is done by 8-9pm and everyone can go to bed.

It's extremely idiotic to keep the polls open that long so that people have to count votes the whole night ...

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Italy has the latest poll closing anywhere in the world I think

Not quite sure why it has to be so late when France/Spain are 8pm, Germany 6pm (and Austria 5pm!)

Does anyone have links for Italian TV stations which won't be geoblocked? (ideally Italian TV not an English-language channel)

Thanks!

DC

Yeah, a poll closing time of 23:00 is absurd. Even 9pm or 10pm is too late.

The ideal opening times IMO are 8am to 5-6pm, so that the counting is done by 8-9pm and everyone can go to bed.

It's extremely idiotic to keep the polls open that long so that people have to count votes the whole night ...

the only place where closing times like that are places like America where election day isn't a federal holiday, so those working long hours can still vote.

[Mike88]

Italy has the latest poll closing anywhere in the world I think

Not quite sure why it has to be so late when France/Spain are 8pm, Germany 6pm (and Austria 5pm!)

Does anyone have links for Italian TV stations which won't be geoblocked? (ideally Italian TV not an English-language channel)

Thanks!

DC

Yeah, a poll closing time of 23:00 is absurd. Even 9pm or 10pm is too late.

The ideal opening times IMO are 8am to 5-6pm, so that the counting is done by 8-9pm and everyone can go to bed.

It's extremely idiotic to keep the polls open that long so that people have to count votes the whole night ...

The government will probably give a day-off to poll workers on Monday.

[SPQR]

Ok have found this!

http://www.raiplay.it/dirette/rainews24?channel=RaiNews

and, I'm sure someone's already explained, so apologies, but are voters allowed to vote for a FPTP candidate of Party A and then Party B in the PR section, or not?

Thanks!

Nope.

There is only one ballot for the House of Deputies, and one for the Senate.
In each case, you can either vote
- Only for a party - in which case the vote goes to the party for the PR part and automatically to the candidate for the FPTP part
- Only for the FPTP candidate - and these votes will then be split between the coalition's parties proportionally to their PR votes
- For both a party and the FPTP candidate, BUT they must be in the same coalition (so, essentially, the vote for the FPTP is just an useless repetition).

[Double Carpet]

Thanks I think I get it now, mille grazie!

So in that respect it's totally different to Germany, Scotland, Wales, where you can split your vote.

What coalition/PM do people think will emerge from the results?

[Double Carpet]

One more question - is Berlusconi barred from being PM specifically, or holding any elected office?

Could he be eg Foreign Minister in a coalition government?

Thanks

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Hard to say who would form a coalition, at least a majority one. M5S is pretty much off the table for any coalition, since any coalition would include an establishment party. A grand coalition similar to Germany's would be extremely unstable, and the only other possibility I see is a minority government.

[FrancoAgo]

Ok have found this!

http://www.raiplay.it/dirette/rainews24?channel=RaiNews

and, I'm sure someone's already explained, so apologies, but are voters allowed to vote for a FPTP candidate of Party A and then Party B in the PR section, or not?

Thanks!

in short Not

[Double Carpet]

Thanks Franco.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Italy has the latest poll closing anywhere in the world I think

Not quite sure why it has to be so late when France/Spain are 8pm, Germany 6pm (and Austria 5pm!)

Though that's only an hour later than in the UK, where it is always 10pm.

[Double Carpet]

True - and Israel is also 10pm I think, but these are both weekdays.

But Italy votes on Sunday - I can't see any reason why you'd want polling stations open later than 8pm on a Sunday?

Although Italy used to be Sunday and then Monday to early afternoon, so maybe the long Sunday hours are a holdover from that?

[FrancoAgo]

The government will probably give a day-off to poll workers on Monday.

poll workers, are not government workers, they are chosen from the municipal electoral commission,
they work a few hours on saturday principally for sign and stamp the ballot papers,
they need to open the seat sunday on 7 am so probably they are on the seat almost 15 minutes before. they probably ended on monday night
in Lazio and Lombardia there are also regional elections so they back to seat to 2 pm for the counting of regional ballot papers. If they are public workers they have 3 day off, if they are private teorically have the same (or 3 day payed) but most ask only the monday

[jaichind]

Why Investors May Want to Hold Their Horses on Italian Exit Polls

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-02/hold-your-horses-on-italian-exit-polls-if-history-is-any-guide

[Oryxslayer]

Hard to say who would form a coalition, at least a majority one. M5S is pretty much off the table for any coalition, since any coalition would include an establishment party. A grand coalition similar to Germany's would be extremely unstable, and the only other possibility I see is a minority government.

Just hopping in, like I always do before an election. Always follow the thread and issues off-and-on, until 2 weeks out, get up to speed, then try and participate in the thread.

Anyway, it actually is actually within the realm of possibility for the right-wing alliance under Berlusconi to win a majority outright. Polls before the embargo didn't put him that far off, and pollsters constantly said that there were a bunch of FPTP seats in the south between the right alliance and MS5 that were extremely close and would decide tge result. If Berlusconi gets close, but not exactly a majority, he will probably get it by flipping MPs as you do in Italian politics.

[FrancoAgo]

Hard to say who would form a coalition, at least a majority one. M5S is pretty much off the table for any coalition, since any coalition would include an establishment party. A grand coalition similar to Germany's would be extremely unstable, and the only other possibility I see is a minority government.

Just hopping in, like I always do before an election. Always follow the thread and issues off-and-on, until 2 weeks out, get up to speed, then try and participate in the thread.

Anyway, it actually is actually within the realm of possibility for the right-wing alliance under Berlusconi to win a majority outright. Polls before the embargo didn't put him that far off, and pollsters constantly said that there were a bunch of FPTP seats in the south between the right alliance and MS5 that were extremely close and would decide tge result. If Berlusconi gets close, but not exactly a majority, he will probably get it by flipping MPs as you do in Italian politics.

this is true but i have the feeling that the right wing alliance is a bit over estimated in the last polls, so probably they also with the "flipping" are under. minority government is very unusual if i remember right we get only one, Andreotti III, in the 1976/8 they get the vote from DC and the abstention of near all the other

[Sestak]

Wait, is M5S anti-vax?

[Illiniwek]

Wait, is M5S anti-vax?

Some people in the party are. While it sounds great in theory to not have a central party with strong control over the candidates, it also lets these wackos get a seat at the table. I doubt a M5S government would do much with anti-vax, but its still not something you want going on.

[Mike88]

The government will probably give a day-off to poll workers on Monday.

poll workers, are not government workers, they are chosen from the municipal electoral commission,
they work a few hours on saturday principally for sign and stamp the ballot papers,
they need to open the seat sunday on 7 am so probably they are on the seat almost 15 minutes before. they probably ended on monday night
in Lazio and Lombardia there are also regional elections so they back to seat to 2 pm for the counting of regional ballot papers. If they are public workers they have 3 day off, if they are private teorically have the same (or 3 day payed) but most ask only the monday

Yes, what i meant is that the government can justify your absence from work if you ask to.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some people in the party are.

Given that one of these people happens to be Grillo, it means that the party is.