Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Did anybody ever consider leaving the Senate mostly as-is but removing the requirement that it give the Prime Minister confidence?

[Mike88]

I'm trying to understand this reform, but it seems to me very weird and confusing. So, the senate will be reduced, and the election for congress will have a second round between the two most voted parties in the first round, right?

The Senate will be reduced in terms of Senators and, more importantly, of powers.
It will not be able to kick out the government anymore, and will focus exclusively on local matters, concerning the regions.

Right now, instead, the House and the Senate both discuss the exact same topics, can both give votes of confidence to the government. The only thing differentiating them is the electorate (only those 25 or older can vote for the Senate).
Oh, and also, right now any law has to be approved by both chambers. If even a comma is changed in either chamber, the other one has to approve it from scratch. This really affects the legislative process.


As for the electoral law, yes, the current law has a second round between the two top parties. But a recent agreement between Renzi and part of PD's minority included changes to that.

Hmm.. I'm starting to get it. I approve the part where the senate has it's powers and size reduced. Also, i think this new system is somewhat similar to Spain's bicameral system.
On the other hand, the change in the electoral law i think is ludicrous. Why not use the system is Germany, where part of the seats are elected by FPTP and the other in a proportional vote. I think this system is very wise because it joins governability with proportionality.

[aross]

I thought the Italicum was a separate thing and had already been approved.

Also, what's with so much of the left being opposed? Is it just because they hate Renzi personally?

[SPQR]

I thought the Italicum was a separate thing and had already been approved.

Also, what's with so much of the left being opposed? Is it just because they hate Renzi personally?

Italicum has been approved, but Renzi agreed to change parts of it in order to make peace with part of the minority within his party.

Yeah, what remains of the left (the party is Sinistra Italiana, which polls at 3%; the leader of the left-wing No is D'Alema, the politician who stabbed Prodi in the back in 1998 in order to become PM) is against the reform mostly because of Renzi.
Take D'Alema: he was part of the old guard kicked out by Renzi in 2013. Then they made peace, only for D'Alema to become Renzi's worse enemy once he was overlooked in favour of Mogherini as Italy's pick for High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs...

In fact, many things which are in today's reform were also part of the constitutional reform proposed in the late 1990's by...D'Alema himself.

[Nanwe]

I'm trying to understand this reform, but it seems to me very weird and confusing. So, the senate will be reduced, and the election for congress will have a second round between the two most voted parties in the first round, right?

The Senate will be reduced in terms of Senators and, more importantly, of powers.
It will not be able to kick out the government anymore, and will focus exclusively on local matters, concerning the regions.

Right now, instead, the House and the Senate both discuss the exact same topics, can both give votes of confidence to the government. The only thing differentiating them is the electorate (only those 25 or older can vote for the Senate).
Oh, and also, right now any law has to be approved by both chambers. If even a comma is changed in either chamber, the other one has to approve it from scratch. This really affects the legislative process.


As for the electoral law, yes, the current law has a second round between the two top parties. But a recent agreement between Renzi and part of PD's minority included changes to that.

Hmm.. I'm starting to get it. I approve the part where the senate has it's powers and size reduced. Also, i think this new system is somewhat similar to Spain's bicameral system.
On the other hand, the change in the electoral law i think is ludicrous. Why not use the system is Germany, where part of the seats are elected by FPTP and the other in a proportional vote. I think this system is very wise because it joins governability with proportionality.

Except it doesn't. In Germany's model, the list votes compensate for the unproportionality of the single-member seats, essentially returning a proportional chamber. What you're referring to is Additional Member Syatems like Scotland's or Japan's. And iirc MMP was already used in Italy since 1994 until 2006 and it didn't guarantee more stability. I suppose the biggest issues of Italian politics are the weakness of the executive, the perfect bicameralism of the Parliament and/or the lack of internal cohesion of the parties

[Mike88]

You're right, i was confusing Germany's system with AMS. Thanks Nawne for the clarification!

[RogueBeaver]

Polls say No will win, Renzi hinting he'll quit if so.

[Senator Cris]

The fact is that if NO wins (in this case we'd keep the clause that the Senate will have to give confidence to the government) and assuming Renzi resigns, there'd be a House law that guarantee a majority to one party, but there's a Senate law that means 3 parties that almost equally split the seats, so no governability and infinite elections like Greece, unless the NO parties (5 Stars, centre-right, PD left-wing, left) can find an agreement on a new Senate electoral law, but I think it's pretty unlikely.

[RogueBeaver]

You think he will quit?

[Senator Cris]

You think he will quit?

He didn't explicitly said that, but he said that he's at the top of the government to change things, not to float, and that politics is not the only thing that counts in life and that he can't live without politics, so I (and almost all people) assume that he'll resign as PM.

He might remain as PD secretary, but in this case he'd rule out PD's participation in a new government and this means new elections.

[SPQR]

The latest from Grillo:

"Those who support the Constitutional reform are the serial killers of our children's future"

[ApatheticAustrian]

imho, it's only natural renzi would quit if the best shot to save italy from itself get sabotaged like that from the crypto-"draintheswamp" party.

at this point, grillo is only a crazy old man, trying to tear down his own country.

[Axel Foley]

My natural vote would be NO, not only to the reform, but principally to the insane electoral law that the potential new system would be based on.

But now I'm literally in fear of a Berlusconi resurgence with a NO victory...really undecided...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Economist is supporting No.

Yeah...

[Senator Cris]

My natural vote would be NO, not only to the reform, but principally to the insane electoral law that the potential new system would be based on.

But now I'm literally in fear of a Berlusconi resurgence with a NO victory...really undecided...

More than a Berlusconi resurgence, there'd be an high chance of a Grillo and Salvini grow, with a good chance for one of them to win the next election.

[DavidB.]

So December 4: Hofer in, Renzi out. A fitting end of 2016.

[FrancoAgo]

No senate electoral law can assure a majority in the Senate and "meno che mai" the same majority of Camera

[Senator Cris]

No senate electoral law can assure a majority in the Senate and "meno che mai" the same majority of Camera

That's true.
If NO wins, we'd keep the current text, which says that the senate electoral law shall ensure that Senators are elected by the regions, which means the Senate electoral law shall be something like the former one (each region elect a number of Senators regionwide, with a majority price in every region). In Italy there are 3 parties/coalitions which, as of now, almost equally split the vote. Every party has some regional strongholds, others would be toss-ups, but a majority for one party would be almost impossible to get, expecially one that's the same of the House.
That's why I think the Senate shall no longer give confidence to the government, so that the party that wins in the House has a clear majority and a clear mandate to govern, and that's why I'm supporting the Constitutional reform.

[FrancoAgo]

There is no more the majority premium, we have a proportional system with 8% threshold (coalition 20% within 3%)

[Mike88]

Any chance, if the NO wins, Renzi makes a U-turn and says he's not resigning? Because, after all, this is Matteo Renzi.

[Lord Halifax]

(coalition 20% within 3%)

what does that mean within this context?

[Iannis]

It seems a paradox, but the extreme parties like M5S or Lega Nord are more likely to obtain a majority after a Yes victory than witha No victory, because only with the "italicum" electoral law they could win in the second term and reach the absolute majority

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Any chance, if the NO wins, Renzi makes a U-turn and says he's not resigning? Because, after all, this is Matteo Renzi.

He'll still be leader of PD, so there will probably be an interim PM and early elections, where he probably is still favoured to win a mandate.

[Senator Cris]

It seems a paradox, but the extreme parties like M5S or Lega Nord are more likely to obtain a majority after a Yes victory than witha No victory, because only with the "italicum" electoral law they could win in the second term and reach the absolute majority

The referendum is not on the Italicum law (there was an agreement in PD for changing it). If Yes wins, the Senate will not have to give confidence to the government, and the winner of the House election will be able to set up a stable government for 5 years.
Personally, I disagree with M5S or Lega Nord, but if the people pick them, they deserve the chance to lead the country.

[ApatheticAustrian]

italy is the only western country atm in which one establishment party wants to reshape something important and the populists - left and right - are winning the fight for the status quo.