Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Mr.Phips]

After looking at the 2016 map, I'm kinda shocked that the Dem doesn't do even better than Mecklenberg County - Hillary won it by 30% in 2016, so kinda surprised McCready only won by 9% and 12% in 2016 and 2018. The fact that it's trending BLUER on the local level means Trump is probably in for a world of hurt in that county in 2020.

This district includes only the more Republican parts of Mecklenberg county.  The most Democratic parts are in N.C.-12.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

My predictions were correct! Bishop ended up winning by 2%, as I had expected, and Murphy won easily (and actually did better than I had expected him to). These races, however, demonstrate that the horrific urban-rural divide which became even worse during 2016 and 2018 is becoming yet more pervasive. While McCready held his ground or improved in the suburban parts of the district compared to last year, he did significantly worse in its rural regions. It's clear that rural voters here perceived him as no different from a national Democrat.

Based Calthrina consistently more accurate than most of Atlas

[Oryxslayer]

10 months ago, 138,000 Democrats voted for McCready.
Yesterday, 92,000 voted for him.

Who are these 46,000 Democrats?

And here we go again with the hot takes about how Democrats need to find a way to appeal to rural rednecks and their "economic anxiety".
Funny how after all the beatings Republicans took the last two years not one single pundit or journalist never said that they should visit some of those affluent suburbs and find a way to appeal to those educated suburbanites.

Kevin Williamson at National Review is on a one-man crusade to get the GOP involved in cities again.
Urban outreach
From Sea to Shining Sea
We'll Always Have... Fort Worth?

The writing is sterling and the ideas surprisingly convincing.
Thank goodness his Never Trump stance condemn him to crying in the wilderness.

Special elections always have lower turnout. The GOP Lost votes overall as well. Don't even attempt a spin that the Dems lost 46K voters, because that would a idiotic take, knowing how special elections always have lower turnout then a November contest. Chances are, the 46K are people who, like usual in off cycle contests, didn't realize there was one, or couldn't get an excuse to leave work for a abnormal electoral contest.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If you look at the PVI and how nearly all comparable seats are held by Rs, it’s 2018 which was the extraordinary outcome for Dems in this district. It’s really remarkable that McCready got so close that Harris’s cheating was required to put him over the top... no wonder Harris thought he would get away with it.

I mean, even if McCready hadn’t underperformed 2018 so badly in rural areas like Richmond County and especially Robeson County (which McCready won by about 15% in 2018 yet only won by 1% in the special), he’d have won.  And if McCready had done that *and* held his ground in Cumberland County from 2018, he’d have definitely won given that McCready actually over-performed 2018 by quite a bit in Mecklenburg County (his double-digit win in such a conservative part of the county speaks for itself which, lest we forget, the NRCC initially thought would be Bishop’s ace in the hole for some reason).

In any case, this district may not even exist in its present form in the 2020 cycle given the challenge to NC’s congressional maps.  Anyway, we’ll see what the NC Supreme Court does.

[wbrocks67]

After looking at the 2016 map, I'm kinda shocked that the Dem doesn't do even better than Mecklenberg County - Hillary won it by 30% in 2016, so kinda surprised McCready only won by 9% and 12% in 2016 and 2018. The fact that it's trending BLUER on the local level means Trump is probably in for a world of hurt in that county in 2020.

Most of Mecklenberg is in the 12th district, not the 9th.
Hillary won the portion of the county in the 12th district by 40 points, but lost the portion in the 9th by 3 points.

Oh wow, that makes McCready's totals even more impressive there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't know how many of you can try to spin this into a good night dor the Democrats. $6M spent so you can lose by more than you lost in 2018 (McCready) and to have lost more ground in almost the entire district says to me that the Republicans have made an improvement over 2018. Also in NC-03, Muephy outperformed Trump's margins. This election night told me that some of the swing voters that voted against the GOP in 2018 have shifted back to the GOP as of now. Also, North Carolina showed us that many of the areas where Trump managed to help shift margins in 2016 definitely were shifted again. Robeson, Anson, Bladen, and Richmond counties all looked good compared to pre-2012 still for the GOP. Just my take.

It's a good night because Trump won this by 12% in 2016, and by the end of provisionals, McCready will likely have only lost by 1.5%, compared to 0.4% in 2018, so nearly the same result. Not to mention that he did even better in the suburbs, which will continue to spell trouble for Trump and the GOP in 2020.

Also, Bishop was a much better candidate than Harris.

Predictably, Trump is now tweeting that Bishop was "down big in the polls" but still won:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171758532280143873

Were there any polls that showed Bishop "down big"?  The average was very close.

[Gass3268]

If the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop at only the same rate as the other eastern counties, McCready probably wins.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1171765093044039682?s=20

[Nyvin]

Robeson single handedly lost McCready the seat.   Good to see that even western Union swung dem though.

[Pollster]

If the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop at only the same rate as the other eastern counties, McCready probably wins.

Not sure the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop as much as they just did not turn out for McCready. Bishop's raw vote total in Robeson was barely short of Harris' whereas McCready's plunged.

[Gass3268]

If the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop at only the same rate as the other eastern counties, McCready probably wins.

Not sure the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop as much as they just did not turn out for McCready. Bishop's raw vote total in Robeson was barely short of Harris' whereas McCready's plunged.

This is a good point. I saw an article how there was a member of the Tribe that ran for the state legislature in 2018 as a Democrat that greatly boosted the turnout there and they went along with McCready. I imagine a lot of those folks didn't show up yesterday.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This election results means little other than the dense and growing suburbs will be bluer in 2020 and the declining white rurals will be redder. Which bodes well for the Dem's chances in the Sun Belt IMO.

[Zaybay]

If anyone is curious, here are some post-election maps of the two races last night:


https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1171786917081505792


https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1171765093044039682

[Donerail]

McCready's massive drop among Lumbee voters spells certain doom for Andy Beshear in rural Kentucky, an area known for its large Lumbee population

[Strudelcutie4427]

This election results means little other than the dense and growing suburbs will be bluer in 2020 and the declining white rurals will be redder. Which bodes well for the Dem's chances in the Sun Belt IMO.

Not necessarily. Suburbs generally vote against someone. You can run against trump now but once you put up “Truth over Facts” Joe30-33-030, komrad Sanders, or Pocahontas and the burbs will be swinging red

[HAnnA MArin County]

I have a question: I keep hearing that Trump won this district by 12 in 2016, but weren't the district's boundaries in 2016 different until they had to be redrawn, or are they estimating based on the new boundaries what his margin was? A friend of mine asked me this and we still don't know the answer. (Apologize if this question has already been asked.)

[Gracile]

I have a question: I keep hearing that Trump won this district by 12 in 2016, but weren't the district's boundaries in 2016 different until they had to be redrawn, or are they estimating based on the new boundaries what his margin was? A friend of mine asked me this and we still don't know the answer. (Apologize if this question has already been asked.)

Trump won the current NC-09 (the lines were established in the 2016 election) 54.4-42.8 or 11.6%.

[Badger]

If the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop at only the same rate as the other eastern counties, McCready probably wins.

Not sure the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop as much as they just did not turn out for McCready. Bishop's raw vote total in Robeson was barely short of Harris' whereas McCready's plunged.

This is a good point. I saw an article how there was a member of the Tribe that ran for the state legislature in 2018 as a Democrat that greatly boosted the turnout there and they went along with McCready. I imagine a lot of those folks didn't show up yesterday.

This mini thread of three post sums up yesterday's election entirely.

[Gracile]

Bishop sponsored a bill in the legislature that would provide more grant opportunities to the Lumbee Tribe, which may partly explain Robeson County's big swing toward Bishop.

[Oryxslayer]

If the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop at only the same rate as the other eastern counties, McCready probably wins.

Not sure the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop as much as they just did not turn out for McCready. Bishop's raw vote total in Robeson was barely short of Harris' whereas McCready's plunged.

This is a good point. I saw an article how there was a member of the Tribe that ran for the state legislature in 2018 as a Democrat that greatly boosted the turnout there and they went along with McCready. I imagine a lot of those folks didn't show up yesterday.

This mini thread of three post sums up yesterday's election entirely.

Let me add on a fourth post, because it seems Wasserman has found the reason for Bishops strength with the Lumbees, even though turnout was a problem for McReady:

So how did Bishop, whose state Charlotte area senate district is nowhere near Robeson County, do so well there? It turns out that in March, when Bishop was just launching his bid for the do-over congressional election, he sponsored a bill to open more grant opportunities for the Lumbees by clarifying state recognition of the tribe. Bishop's picture appeared in the Robesonian, and it likely paid off on Tuesday.

Sounds  like the exact sort of thing that would matter in this unique county with no comparable partners anywhere in the US.

EDIT: looks like I was beaten to the punch.

[Epaminondas]

Will McCready run a third time in 2022?

[DINGO Joe]

Will McCready run a third time in 2022?

Depends what the districts look like.  I'd think a friendly district could appear in the Charlotte area, but Jeff Jackson might be interested too.

[DINGO Joe]

10 months ago, 138,000 Democrats voted for McCready.
Yesterday, 92,000 voted for him.

Who are these 46,000 Democrats?

Well, if you could find a way to get them to the polls, you could make quite a living as a consultant.

[MarkD]

10 months ago, 138,000 Democrats voted for McCready.
Yesterday, 92,000 voted for him.

Who are these 46,000 Democrats?

They're very similar to the 43,000 Republicans who voted for Mark Harris who did not show up to vote for Dan Bishop.

[Epaminondas]

They're very similar to the 43,000 Republicans who voted for Mark Harris who did not show up to vote for Dan Bishop.

You mean these 43,000 Republicans see their party locked of the country's executive, legislative and judiciary and thus have only the polls to express their disgust at the way things are going in their country?

The situation is quite asymmetric.

[lfromnj]

They're very similar to the 43,000 Republicans who voted for Mark Harris who did not show up to vote for Dan Bishop.

You mean these 43,000 Republicans see their party locked of the country's executive, legislative and judiciary and thus have only the polls to express their disgust at the way things are going in their country?

The situation is quite asymmetric.

But this was about the house?