2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[OneJ]

Tiffany Trump calling it....blue wave imminent:

Lol. She knows what’s up.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s really amazing to see the Democratic lead collapse again, this is starting to get very reminiscent of the 2016 election where Hillary would take a big lead and then a couple weeks later Trump would start surging, and it would go back and forth like that until Election Day happened to occur during a week Trump was surging. My gut tells me the Democratic lead will fluctuate between now and November, but when the election happens, it will be when Republicans are on an upswing, thus resulting in them holding the House and gaining several senate seats.

An when it goes back up again (like it does every time) you'll disappear

[Landslide Lyndon]

Imagine being on the outs with your father because you aren't pretty enough to fuel his incestuous fantasies.

Imagine being the only child not ending up in federal prison.

You think Barron will go to the slammer too?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tiffany Drumpf calling it....blue wave imminent:

Lol. She knows what’s up.

She is probably the only Trump spawn with any common sense. She was very smart not to be a part of her father's administration. Then again, I doubt he'd let her be part of it. He barely seems to acknowledge the poor girl, it's become a recurring joke at this point for some.
We'll see about Barron. I'm under the impression that he is humiliated by his dad and would probably be bullied in his private school for being the spitting image of him, if it weren't for that Secret Service protection of course. he will probably be one of the good Trump kids also. I guess there's something inherently awful about being the product of Ivana and Donald. Their DNA is probably the equivalent of Xenomorph blood.

[KingSweden]

Tiffany Drumpf calling it....blue wave imminent:

Lol. She knows what’s up.

She is probably the only Trump spawn with any common sense. She was very smart not to be a part of her father's administration. Then again, I doubt he'd let her be part of it. He barely seems to acknowledge the poor girl, it's become a recurring joke at this point for some.
We'll see about Barron. I'm under the impression that he is humiliated by his dad and would probably be bullied in his private school for being the spitting image of him, if it weren't for that Secret Service protection of course. he will probably be one of the good Trump kids also. I guess there's something inherently awful about being the product of Ivana and Donald. Their DNA is probably the equivalent of Xenomorph blood.

Let’s not discuss the hypothetical thoughts and “goodness” of a 10 year old please

[_]

Are you people seriously attacking Barron?

[Bidenworth2020]

its about time we all go full limo, as the chart demands...

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't think I was attacking Barron in any way. I sympathize with the kid. It can't be easy being the son of a unpopular President. That's kind of what I was trying to say.

[Dr. Arch]

I don't think I was attacking Barron in any way. I sympathize with the kid. It can't be easy being the son of a popular President. That's kind of what I was trying to say.

Popular???

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't think I was attacking Barron in any way. I sympathize with the kid. It can't be easy being the son of a popular President. That's kind of what I was trying to say.

Popular???

Haha whoops, that's a horrible typo. Obviously I meant "unpopular." I'll fix it now.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I don't think I was attacking Barron in any way. I sympathize with the kid. It can't be easy being the son of a popular President. That's kind of what I was trying to say.

Popular???

Haha whoops, that's a horrible typo. Obviously I meant "unpopular." I'll fix it now.

I was FLOORED for a couple of seconds...

[kph14]

PPP (03/23-03/25)
Democrats   50% (+2)
Republicans  39% (-1)

Last poll was 02/09-02/11
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

PPP (03/23-03/25)
Democrats   50% (+2)
Republicans  39% (-1)

Last poll was 02/09-02/11
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

Red wave is dead officially.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

PPP (03/23-03/25)
Democrats   50% (+2)
Republicans  39% (-1)

Last poll was 02/09-02/11
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

I'm sorry, but the majority of the country is wrong on question 55.

[KingSweden]

PPP (03/23-03/25)
Democrats   50% (+2)
Republicans  39% (-1)

Last poll was 02/09-02/11
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

Red wave is dead officially.

Until the next shiny object poll we can all obsess over.

Also check this thing’s enthusiasm gap...

[junior chįmp]

PPP (03/23-03/25)
Democrats   50% (+2)
Republicans  39% (-1)

Last poll was 02/09-02/11
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

Red wave is dead officially.

Until the next shiny object poll we can all obsess over.

Also check this thing’s enthusiasm gap...

Also, the enthusiasm gap has remained fairly static meaning the people Trump has pissed off are just as motivated as ever. The GOP figured these people would just lose interest after seeing that extra $1.50 in their paycheck but so far it hasn't played out that way

[Virginiá]

Also, the enthusiasm gap has remained fairly static meaning the people Trump has pissed off are just as motivated as ever. The GOP figured these people would just lose interest after seeing that extra $1.50 in their paycheck but so far it hasn't played out that way

I can certainly understand why regular people would think that - it seems like common sense that voters would reward the politicians who gave them a tax cut, but if actual politicians thought this too, well that level of stupidity is almost criminal. How many midterm elections do we have to have before people realize that almost nothing else matters except the president, particularly when they are very unpopular. It's really hard to neutralize that kind of problem, short of say, the president giving every voter in America a million dollars in cash.

Taxes don't drive people to vote. Congress doesn't either. It's always that single person in the White House, and it's been like this for generations.

[Gass3268]

Also, the enthusiasm gap has remained fairly static meaning the people Trump has pissed off are just as motivated as ever. The GOP figured these people would just lose interest after seeing that extra $1.50 in their paycheck but so far it hasn't played out that way

I can certainly understand why regular people would think that - it seems like common sense that voters would reward the politicians who gave them a tax cut, but if actual politicians thought this too, well that level of stupidity is almost criminal. How many midterm elections do we have to have before people realize that almost nothing else matters except the president, particularly when they are very unpopular. It's really hard to neutralize that kind of problem, short of say, the president giving every voter in America a million dollars in cash.

Taxes don't drive people to vote. Congress doesn't either. It's always that single person in the White House, and it's been like this for generations.

Exactly, look at the exceptions. 2002 - Bush's approvals were still sky high after 9/11 | 1998 - People thought Impeachment was stupid

[Virginiá]

Exactly, look at the exceptions. 2002 - Bush's approvals were still sky high after 9/11 | 1998 - People thought Impeachment was stupid

I agree. I would also point out that in 1998, Clinton's approvals were over 60% (and over 65% in Oct/Nov 1998). That was probably why people disagreed with impeachment in the first place. It's really quite amazing that Republicans thought the impeachment of a popular president would be a winning issue to begin with 

If Republicans managed to neutralize this wave with Trump having his approval ratings underwater, that would be the first time in history that it has happened - or at least since polling became a thing.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Jay Cost said the same thing a few weeks ago.
Republicans could eliminate all taxes and they still would lose badly in November as long as Trump behaved like a jackass.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, March 22-26, 2244 RV

D 41 (nc)
R 34 (-2)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov/Economist

Dem: 42% (-2)
GOP: 35% (-3)

G. Elliot Morris hasn't release his updated chart yet, but the gradual decline in the GOP's numbers in Ispos, YouGov, and PPP should be in line. It predicted a very short and minor GOP bump around this time.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrat advantage is rebounding.

538: D+7.1
RCP: D+6.8

 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, March 26-27, 1997 RV

D 41 (-1)
R 37 (-1)

(No net change)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters core political poll (this is different from their daily tracker), March 23-27, 1670 adults (1392 RV)
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-03-28
https://www.slideshare.net/AnneMarieMoran2/reutersipsos-data-core-political-03282018

Among all adults: D 38, R 31 (D+7)

Among RV: D 42, R 35 (D+7)