2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[KingSweden]

At this rate, the REpublican party will cease to exist by May.

If the trend of -0.3% per day continues, and my mind model declares that it shall be so, the GOP will be -2000 approval rating by November. Blue asteroid strike confirmed.

[Gass3268]

NBC News / Survey Monkey:

Democrats 44% (-1)
Republicans 37% (-2)

Source

Wow, if this trend continues to election day no one will go out to vote! /s

[BudgieForce]

Apparently Rasmussen did a generic ballot poll.

Democrats - 46%
Republicans - 40%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

NBC News / Survey Monkey:

Democrats 44% (-1)
Republicans 37% (-2)

Source

Wow, if this trend continues to election day no one will go out to vote! /s

3rd party wave? :thonk:

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Apparently Rasmussen did a generic ballot poll.

Democrats - 46%
Republicans - 40%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Disasterous for the gop. If we unskew the polls, this is actually D+20. LittleLiberal is bawling his eyes out.

[junior chįmp]

Apparently Rasmussen did a generic ballot poll.

Democrats - 46%
Republicans - 40%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Disasterous for the gop. If we unskew the polls, this is actually D+20. LittleLiberal is bawling his eyes out.

Liberal tears Imminent

[King Lear]

Amazing article from Culumbia University Sociology Professor Musa al-Garbi
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/07/opinion/texas-primary-results-blue.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fopinon

[Ebsy]

Amazing article from Culumbia University Sociology Professor Musa-al Garbi
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/07/opinion/texas-primary-results-blue.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fopinon

This is exceedingly lazy analysis.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Jesus Christ, the Republicans are so hell-bent on trying to cut down the "Blue Wave" rhetoric that they are using primary numbers from a heavy Republican state to prove a point that isn't there? That is fuc**** pathetic. They are ignoring everything else: the fundraising numbers, the enthusiasm gap, the special elections, the generic ballot, candidate quality, etc. They are really setting themselves up for major disappointment in November, and that NYtimes article doesn't make any sense.

I'm tired of the media digging around and ovulating over every (very) small detail that goes against the likely blue wave.

[YE]

Jesus Christ, the Republicans are so hell-bent on trying to cut down the "Blue Wave" rhetoric that they are using primary numbers from a heavy Republican state to prove a point that isn't there? That is fuc**** pathetic. They are ignoring everything else: the fundraising numbers, the enthusiasm gap, the special elections, the generic ballot, candidate quality, etc. They are really setting themselves up for major disappointment in November, and that NYtimes article doesn't make any sense.

Don’t stress too much. The results in November won’t be controlled by Atlas blue avatars reactions to posts.

[Virginiá]

Jesus Christ, the Republicans are so hell-bent on trying to cut down the "Blue Wave" rhetoric that they are using primary numbers from a heavy Republican state to prove a point that isn't there? That is fuc**** pathetic. They are ignoring everything else: the fundraising numbers, the enthusiasm gap, the special elections, the generic ballot, candidate quality, etc. They are really setting themselves up for major disappointment in November, and that NYtimes article doesn't make any sense.

Every time Democrats get excited by some new statistic that seems to buttress their claims of a wave, but later on falls flat or doesn't come true, they give Republican officials an opening to try and shift the narrative, even if the statistic people were getting excited by isn't as predictive as they may have thought. It doesn't matter how useful said stat is, Republicans will use it against Democrats if it doesn't work out in their favor. Although I'm not really sure what the point of this messaging battle is past influencing candidate recruitment, which is increasingly unnecessary with filing periods coming up all over the place.

[junior chįmp]

70+ seats...I'm tellin ya

https://www.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/971792070011752448

[Gass3268]

70+ seats...I'm tellin ya

https://www.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/971792070011752448

This coming from a writer from The Economist.

[KingSweden]

70+ seats...I'm tellin ya

https://www.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/971792070011752448

But what does the infallible LimoLiberal mind model say

(Also: is 1994 really considered a bigger wave than 2010?)

[henster]

This is the fault of a lot of liberal blogs and twitterers who hype this stuff up, same thing happened in 2016. McDonald was one of the worst offenders and people keep doing it. Thankfully there is no EV in PA-18 otherwise people would by hyperventilating over #s.

[Devout Centrist]

70+ seats...I'm tellin ya

https://www.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/971792070011752448

This coming from a writer from The Economist.

He's still an undergrad, though. I wouldn't read too much into that.

[Virginiá]

(Also: is 1994 really considered a bigger wave than 2010?)

I guess it depends on how you want to look at it. Republicans gained more govs/Senate seats in 1994 but the House PV magin for Republicans was very similar. Geographical sorting and the downfall of split-ticket voting was pretty damaging for Democrats in 2010+

[Sestak]

Do we have any IL-06 D primary polls?

[Ebsy]

Do we have any IL-06 D primary polls?

Just the PPP one that showed Newman down 2 iirc.

[KingSweden]

(Also: is 1994 really considered a bigger wave than 2010?)

I guess it depends on how you want to look at it. Republicans gained more govs/Senate seats in 1994 but the House PV magin for Republicans was very similar. Geographical sorting and the downfall of split-ticket voting was pretty damaging for Democrats in 2010+

I suppose it’s a bit academic, but I’ve always viewed 1994 as the true realignment. It’s easy to forget that Dems won a bunch of gubernatorial flips in 2010

[Young Conservative]

Do we have any IL-06 D primary polls?

Just the PPP one that showed Newman down 2 iirc.

A PPP internal for NARAL or PP if I remember right

[Ebsy]

Do we have any IL-06 D primary polls?

Just the PPP one that showed Newman down 2 iirc.

A PPP internal for NARAL or PP if I remember right

PPP has always been pretty consistent in the quality of their internals.

[Sestak]

Do we have any IL-06 D primary polls?

Whoops, I meant IL-07. Davis' district.

[Holmes]

So in the span of a week it went from 3 to 10 to 12 to 5. It moves too much.

[Virginiá]

From the dearly departed:

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