In the event that the Dems win the State House (which is very plausible given that Texas is meant to be very close this year), here's a potential neutral map I drew:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6e477c36-400d-43c2-9346-ccb9a8f8a3b5whole state view
view of the DFW area
view of Houston
view of Austin & San Antonio
This shows just how much of a natural D gerrymander Texas can be if not cancelled out by Republicans. The map is 20 Hillary-19 Trump, and was very close to 22-17. Of course most of the 17 other seats are quite solidly Republican, but still that is impressive that in a state Trump won by 9 Dems won a majority of seats.
I didn't pay too much attention to VRA assuming it would address itself naturally anyway, but I do worry it might be illegal as there's less border seats than the current situation. So it might get thrown out because IDK if those minority-majority San Antonio seats count.
Analysis of seats:
TX-01 (blue) - based on North East Texas. 73-24 Trump/Clinton, R+25 PVI. Safe R, obviously.
TX-02 (green) - inner North West Houston. More compact than the current seat, but the seat is a lot more Republican, being 58-38 Trump/Clinton and a R+16 PVI. Though the seat is trending D quite rapidly, the seat is still a safe one for Team R...whether that will hold throughout the decade is another question though.
TX-03 (purple) - Collin County. Very similar to TX-02 in terms of outlook. It's slightly less Republican, only being 56-38 Trump/Clinton and R+15.
TX-04 (red) - a combination of some northern DFW exurbs and rural North East Texas. Even more Republican than TX-01, being 74-22 Trump/Clinton and R+27 via PVI.
TX-05 (gold) - basically the same seat as TX-04, though this one is R+28 and to the south of Dallas rather than north. Of course remains extremely safe for Team R.
TX-06 (teal) - the impact of TX-05 becoming such a safe seat is that this one becomes a compact seat based on South East Tarrant County rather than the gerrymandered urban/rural seat that it currently is. This seat voted Hillary over Trump 49-46, and wasn't even that Republican beforehand, only having a PVI of R+2. Safe to say that this seat would elect a Democrat in the current climate, though like a lot of suburban seats this will be interesting in a midterm.
TX-07 (chocolate) - very similar seat to the current one, though it's slightly less elastic, basically being a tie in 2016 and having a PVI of R+5. Again, it'll likely vote Democrat at this point, but it'll be interesting in a potential Biden midterm.
TX-08 (slate blue) - basically the current seat, combining Montgomery County with rural areas. Like the current seat is very safely Republican, voting Trump 72-24 and being R+28 via PVI.
TX-09 (cyan) - again quite similar to the current one, being based on South Houston. Very safely Dem, voting Hillary 77-20 and D+25.
TX-10 (deep pink) - unlike the current seat that combines Houston and Austin suburbs with vast rural areas around the southern part of the Brazos Valley, this is a very safe rural seat based around the southern bits of the Brazos Valley and the Gulf of Mexico. Voted Trump 69-27 and has a PVI of R+24.
TX-11 (chartreuse) - the more urban bits of West Texas (so contains Midland and Lubbock, for example). Still a very safe Republican seat (like the current one), voting Trump 72-24 and R+27.
TX-12 (cornflower blue) - mostly exurban DFW, combining the northern suburbs of Fort Worth with more rural territory west of Tarrant County. Though the seat is trending Democrat (a PVI of R+26 but "only" Trump 70/25) it's still a very safe Republican one.
TX-13 (dark salmon) - basically the same as the current one. 79-18 Trump and R+32, so not much to talk about.
TX-14 (olive) - more obviously suburban than the current one, though still pretty similar in feel. 60-36 Trump and R+16, so still safe Republican and the Democratic trend isn't as rapid as some other Houston area seats.
TX-15 (dark orange) - kind of a replacement for TX-23, but more obviously rural and Hispanic. 66-30 Clinton and D+17, so obviously safely Democratic.
TX-16 (lime) - based on El Paso. Another safe Dem Hispanic border seat (Clinton 69-26, D+18)
TX-17 (dark slate blue) - based on Waco and the Killeen-Temple area, this one might have viability for Democrats in the future, but certainly not right now and probably not for the rest of the decade as the Dem trend here isn't as rapid as the more metro seats. Voted Trump 59-36, has a PVI of R+14.
TX-18 (yellow) - inner Houston seat, comparable to the current one. Safe D seat voting Clinton 69-26, having a PVI of D+17.
TX-19 (yellow-green) - southern bit of West Texas and the Hill Country. Nearly as safely R as TX-13, voting Trump 75/21 and a PVI of R+29.
TX-20 (pink) - a big change from the current map - instead of being a pure San Antonio seat it now expands to take in some rural counties to its east and is mostly the eastern suburbs of San Antonio. This made it vote for Trump, but only by a narrow margin - 48/47, though the PVI is slightly lower than some seats Hillary won, being R+3 which suggests that the vote here is slightly less elastic than other seats. Nevertheless, in the current climate this seat will probably send a Democrat to Congress.
TX-21 (maroon) - more compact than the current one, but still combines the western half of Austin with some rural territory and Hays County. Notably voted Hillary 48/46, and has a PVI of R+4. Again, Likely D as things stand but may not hold in a midterm.
TX-22 (sienna) - based on the urbanised areas of Fort Bend and Brazoria County, this is a classic case of suburbia trending left. Voted Hillary 53/43, and has an even PVI. Honestly this would probably stay solid even in a midterm.
TX-23 (moccassin) - changed from being a combination of San Antonio suburbs with border areas to a quasi-fajita strip seat based on SW San Antonio and rural Hispanic areas in South Texas. Heavily Hispanic, so probably closer to the current TX-20 in feel than the one made here. Naturally safe D at 63/32 Hillary and D+14 in PVI.
TX-24 (indigo) - moves from being based on rich suburbia around the airport to being based around Fort Worth. Like a lot of surburban seats flipped from Romney to Clinton, voting Clinton 50/45 and having a even PVI. Definitely Safe D in today's climate, and would be difficult for Republicans to win even in a midterm.
TX-25 (pale violet red) - moves from being an elongated strip combining Forth Worth and Austin suburbs with rural territory to being a rural seat based on north "Middle Texas". This is probably the safest seat in the entire country for Republicans, voting 79/17 Trump and having a R+33 PVI.
TX-26 (navy) - Denton County. Probably safe R for now, but like neighbouring TX-03 might not be for the entire decade. Voted 58/37 Trump and R+15 by PVI.
TX-27 (spring green) - similar seat to the current one, being based around the Gulf of Mexico and Corpus Christi. Though majority Hispanic the seat is still pretty safely Republican, voting 56/40 Trump and having a R+10 PVI, and unlike other seats with a similar Trump margin isn't even trending D.
TX-28 (plum) - mostly based on the McAllen metro area, this is a Safe D border seat (voted 68/28 Hillary and D+19 PVI)
TX-29 (orange) - majority Hispanic seat based on East Houston. Oddly this seat isn't that Democratic, only voting 59/37 for Clinton and being D+6 PVI, so might've been interesting before 2016. It wouldn't be now, though.
TX-30 (light coral) - SE Dallas, the blacker bit of Dallas. Like the current seat, is Safe D. Voted 72-25 Hillary and D+23.
TX-31 (khaki) - sheds most of its rural territory to be purely based on Williamson County and North Austin. Very similar partisan figures to TX-21, voting Hillary 47/45 and being R+4 on PVI. Again will be solid for Team D in this climate, but might not be in another one.
TX-32 (orange-red) - like the current TX-32, based on NE Dallas and southern Collin County. Voted 49/46 Hillary and has a PVI of R+4. See TX-06 for how it would vote.
TX-33 (royal blue) - SW Dallas (though part of it also extends to Tarrant County), the more Hispanic bit of Dallas. Again a Safe D seat, being 72/25 Hillary and D+21 PVI.
TX-34 (lime green) - border seat based on Brownville. Yet another Safe D seat voting 66/31 Hillary and being D+17 PVI.
TX-35 (dark orchid) - mostly Austin, though also contains some rural counties to its east. Naturally Safe D, voting 64/29 Hillary and being D+15 on PVI.
TX-36 (dodger blue) - Safe R seat based on South East Texas. Voted 69/29 Trump and a PVI of R+20.
TX-37 (dark sea green) - new seat based on NE Harris County. Like so many seats of its ilk it flipped in 2016, voting 49/47 Hillary and has a PVI of R+4. Would probably vote similarly to TX-07.
TX-38 (medium aquamarine) - new seat based on NW Dallas. Very much seems a place full of rich suburban Trump backlash, voting 52/43 Hillary but having a R+2 PVI. On those figures tricky to see it even coming back in a midterm, though it is a bit whiter than seats of a similar partisan makeup.
TX-39 (aquamarine) - new seat based on NW Bexar County. Minority-majority, but voted Trump narrowly 47/46 and has a PVI of R+6. Still it's hard to imagine a seat like this staying Republican in the current climate.
