German Elections & Politics

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

New Bavaria poll (GMS)

CSU: 37 %
SPD: 15 %   
Greens: 10 %   
FDP: 8 %   
Linke: 3 %   
Free Voters: 7 %   
AfD: 14 %   
Others: 6 %

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm

If the SPD enters another grand coalition, I think we can expect them to fall behind AfD in Bavaria. There might be a situation developing where the left wing vote goes primarily to the Greens in the South, Linke in the East, and SPD in the Northwest/Rhineland. It really seems to have collapsed as a national party.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Governments aside, which nations have majorities of people who would even want a United States of Europe at this point? This seems like something everyone wants as a long term goal but would never go for in the medium term.

Literally none. Even in Germany, polling is against it, and the EU as it stands is much more unpopular in most other member states. The SPD has a deathwish, it seems. If they drag the CDU along this path, AfD and Linke will become the top parties in East Germany, ironically the opposite of what the grand coalition would want.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Can someone explain how a government party is going to lose votes for going back into the same government? Were there anti-CDU/CSU/SPD government people voting SPD this time who won't vote SPD again? You see how this is unintuitive.

The Grand Coalition was supposed to be temporary and the SPD ran in 2017 win the intention of leading a majority coalition or leading the opposition to the CDU led coalition if they came in second. Now, they're breaking their promise and rejoining what was already an unpopular government. Voters feel betrayed, and rightly so.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

I'm starting to think that the SPD will become entirely irrelevant in East Germany, ceding votes to AfD and Linke, and also irrelevant among young progressives in West Germany, many of whom will switch to the Greens.
I think GroKo makes AfD the second largest party next election and collectively SPD and CDU/CSU might not even be able to win a majority of seats for another grand coalition.