Percentage of Hispanic vote Marco Rubio would win if nominated

[Nichlemn]

Not that I think his nomination is likely, but he's the most promising Hispanic that the Republicans have at the moment. I'm not so much interested in him specifically, but how Generic Hispanic Republican would do in Generic Presidential Election. Bush won about 40% of Hispanics in 2004, so in a 50/50 election, would Rubio win a majority? If so, how large a majority? Would it be enough to put some exotic targets (say, California) in play?

[Nichlemn]

We could try extrapolating from Obama's improvement over Kerry. Of course, this has a number of problems - the already high victory margins make linear extrapolation unwise, a significant portion of Obama's improvement was a result of increased turnout and blacks probably care more about identity politics than Hispanics.