Shea-Porter vs. Gregg?

[Brittain33]

FYI, the last approval survey I can find for Gregg, Survey USA Nov. 06 post-election, had him at 50%/40%. Sununu was at 47%/44%. Collins was 73%/23% and Snowe was doing even better.

In October '06, he was 55%/36%; but Sununu was at 52%/41%. All this shows is that he has a few more points of personal loyalty than Sununu did above the baseline Republican vote.

I was skeptical about lumping Gregg in with Sununu for vulnerability, but this indicates there's potential here there never was in Maine. A lot of it depends on what kind of year 2010 is for Democrats.

"Gregg is very popular" is the CW but I think we may find out that it as dated and inaccurate as the CW about Liddy Dole... although I presume Gregg to be more effective than Dole is.

[Brittain33]

I'm not saying that Gregg is completely safe but comparing Gregg, a New Hampshire institution, to Elizabeth Dole is silly.

What are you arguments for saying that? We've given ours, including Gregg's poll numbers, his record of weak election wins, and the changing state of New Hampshire politics.

What you said is the CW, but can you back it up any more? Note that Liddy Dole, whatever her weaknesses, represented a state significantly more Republican than N.H., and had a national profile that was considered an asset.

[Brittain33]

Something a bit more recent than the above-cited polls and from a good NH pollster too.  I don't think UNH did polling on these things during the fall, except for the contested races (though I'm not 100% sure).  Knowing UNH, we'll probably get another one sometime early next year.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2008_summer_cong72308.pdf

Interesting... a poll that gave Sununu good results had Gregg at the same approval (53%) and lower disapprovals, with high undecideds. None of this bodes well for Gregg. I would have presumed he'd score much higher than Sununu based on the CW.

We will have to see who steps up to the plate for the Democrats and how 2010 shapes up but we can all agree that Gregg, if he has any sense, will be changing his voting record and views rather drastically with Obama in the White House.

[Brittain33]

National profile considered an asset? Making an ass out of herself for a year was an asset? Sure, NC is more Republican than NH but Gregg is definitely a stronger name in his state and a better campaigner. He has to be. Few people are as foolish as Elizabeth Dole.

You haven't given anything to prove his weakness regarding approval ratings. You cited a poll from 2006. Sure, his rating could have gotten worse but who knows? I'm not taking a poll from two years ago as a gold standard.

Phil,

We've cited what evidence there is. To repeat:

1. Gregg polls as well as Sununu does or a little better. He polls much worse than Snowe and Collins, the people he is most often compared to on this thread.
2. New Hampshire is trending rapidly Democratic.
3. The evidence shows, contrary to your assertion, he has not had to fight a campaign since 1992 and he did not do that well, even then, when New Hampshire was markedly more Republican and he was the incumbent governor.
4. Democrats have a broad bench of candidates in this state for the first time in modern history.

You're presenting your opinions in response and getting hung up on Liddy Dole, which is beside the point. Look, if you believe Gregg is an institution and the overwhelming favorite, that's your right. I'm saying the evidence says otherwise and there is an opening for Democrats here depending on how 2010 is and who runs. I didn't believe that 12 hours ago, but having done a little googling, I do now.

You're welcome to stick to your guns.

[Brittain33]

Come on. Maybe if she can prove she can break 52% in her own district, she could be competitive, but in 2010 it would be Tom Allen Part Two.

Gregg isn't even as remotely as popular as Collins, and while NH isn't quite as liberal as Maine, he is FAR more conservative than Collins as well.

He has a solid pro-life record. That is very difficult in N.H. I hope there is a race in that state because I am curious to see how he positions himself since he is so out-of-step with his constituents having voted as a standard conservative Republican placeman rather than a senator for New Hampshire.

[Brittain33]

Ok but that doesn't make him Liddy Dole-like.

He's like Liddy Dole in that superficially everyone thought she'd be safe, but on examination she turned out to be vulnerable on many points. We've made that case. That's all.

Finding ways he's not like Liddy Dole in other respects is not relevant. My response was to show that for every Dole weakness you can identify that doesn't apply to Gregg, there's a Gregg weakness that doesn't apply to Dole. On balance, it evens out.

[Brittain33]

And I'll repeat that what you presented is from 2006.

Sam found a poll from 2008, but what's more, could you make an argument why things would have shifted for him since then? Have Senate Republicans become more popular? Has New Hampshire become more Republican? Has Gregg done anything noteworthy?

I think we know the answers to those questions. We could argue we don't know where he stands exactly, and that is so... and that is why I keep saying that we need to see how 2010 is. That said, it's quite clear he wasn't a beloved institution in N.H. two years ago, so I fail to see that he could have become one since then.

[Brittain33]

LOL. Phil, you're a gem.

[Brittain33]

Do me a favor and post a simple, "Let's agree to disagree"

Why would I do that? I'm right, you're not. I'm satisfied with that conclusion. Cheers.

[Brittain33]

Just FYI:  New Hampshire is one of those states on my list that I am curious to see what happens in the next couple of years once Bush leaves office.  (I have about five others or so on that list).

This is certainly true. This is one reason I'm curious to see how Gregg defines himself in opposition to Obama, or not, in the next couple of years. He has an opportunity to carve out a niche that Sununu didn't have and would have denied himself anyway.

If he helps out on too many filibusters, it's going to get noticed.