Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Bojicat]

Thanks, Andy Hogan.

Berlusconi was banned from holding office in 2012 by a Milan Court. He cannot re-participate until 2019 (I'm sure this has been brought up/commented on already). I don't believe he can work a miracle and get a reprieve from the European Court of Human Rights by March, or even by year-end. He's not getting back into power. He'll just remain a gray eminence, a Grande Monsieur of the Right.

And yes, the prognostication for Italy's next Prime Minister is trending Right, as most of us have noted. Who will be that masked man?

Frankly, who cares anymore? The country's lost.

Italy will trudge through a procession of middling, feckless prime ministers unable to handle, even nudge, the state's calcified, faceless apparatchiks, who will lord it over Italians for as long as the universe expands. There's no HMS Carpathia in sight. I think it's hopeless.

[Bojicat]

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/05/silvio-berlusconi-says-illegal-migrants-social-time-bomb-race/

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/05/berlusconi-pledges-to-deport-600000-illegal-immigrants-italy-election

Amazing cheek that the same fellow who denounces an immigrant explosion and crime wave associated with it had signed the 2003 EU refugee pact that brought this all about.

[Bojicat]

A horrific incident, potentially linked to the murder of Mastropietro?

We are witnessing social disintegration linked to immigration exploding as a red meat issue in Italy.
And the all-but-certain legislative beneficiaries of it (Five Star, the Center-right Coalition), and the likely crumbling that the Center-Left will suffer for some time, we now know reflects a Europe-wide phenomenon. That much is obvious.

But the results of March 4th in Italy are far more important than we realize. Once (as expected) the Center-Right takes the helm, only Greece, Sweden, Portugal and France (somewhat) will remain Left-governed on the Continent. Think of that.

Have we ever seen this in European history, post 1848?

Who foresaw that the Arab Spring (and, in particular, its apotheosis, the Syrian civil war) would also transform Europe?

[Bojicat]

Very likely to be TAJANI after the dust settles post March 4th. I also sense that the PD will do far worse than the polls indicate, due primarily to Italy's first-past-the-post election system, which will devastate the left in the South and eviscerate it in the North.

As a consequence, the idea of GENTILONI running a 'caretaker' coalition on the heels of his party's disembowelment will just not appear feasible.

[Bojicat]

Interesting developments. The PD was crushed to virtual non-existence, the worst thumping it has seen "in its history", it is said. It now has pipe dreams of being an "opposition party." It doesn't have the weight for even that, its protests will sound like a faint thud in a noisy factory.

LEGA strode past Berlusconi with unencumbered ease. The wounded fox sits uncharacteristically quiet in one of his manors, licking his wounds.

Who will now lead as prime minister? 5Star feels it was the real victor, gives disdainful short shrift to everyone else. LEGA adamantly says no alliance with 5Star. The PD has had it, repudiated beyond redemption, no other party will want to associate with it. Berlusconi's a schemer, but how far can he go with his vastly dwindled status?

The real headline: a popular cry-out to break an establishment-party/burocrate stranglehold on Italy collapses again to naught and muddle.