Politico Poll Shows Growing Peril for Democrats

[Frodo]

POLITICO poll shows mounting danger for Dems

By ALEXANDER BURNS | 5/19/14 5:02 AM EDT

President Barack Obama’s job approval slump and voters’ entrenched wariness of his health care law are dogging Democrats ahead of the 2014 midterm elections, and Republicans have captured a lead in the areas home to the year’s most competitive races, according to a new POLITICO poll.

In the congressional districts and states where the 2014 elections will actually be decided, likely voters said they would prefer to vote for a Republican over a Democrat by 7 points, 41 percent to 34 percent. A quarter of voters said they were unsure of their preference.

Among these critical voters, Obama’s job approval is a perilous 40 percent, and nearly half say they favor outright repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Sixty percent say they believe the debate over the law is not over, compared with 39 percent who echo the president’s position and say the ACA debate has effectively concluded.

Both Obama’s job approval and the partisan ballot matchup are markedly more negative for Democrats in this poll than other national surveys — a reflection of the political reality that the midterm campaign is being fought on turf that is more challenging for Democrats than the nation as a whole.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/05/politico-poll-shows-mounting-danger-for-dems-106814.html#ixzz32E12wFtQ

[GaussLaw]

This election has been so volatile with the Generic Ballot.  There have been so many flip-fllops already, for seemingly no apparent reason.

[bballrox4717]

Nearly half support full repeal of ACA? That flies in the face of nearly every poll we've been seeing that shows plurality support for fixing its problems and little taste for full repeal. This poll could be garbage.

[TJ in Oregon]

This poll includes only states with competitive senate races and people living in competitive house districts. We can't compare anything from it to the national polling. If this shows anything, it shows the geographic advantage the Republicans have in 2014 in terms of where the races are. But also keep in mind there are plenty of people who can't stand Obama or the ACA but will vote for Pryor or Landreau.

[Person Man]

This poll definitely skews quite a bit more Republican, Conservative and Wealthy than the national electorate. For example, the median income was close to $75,000 and though voters tend to skew high, that's a bit too high.

[Frodo]

This poll definitely skews quite a bit more Republican, Conservative and Wealthy than the national electorate. For example, the median income was close to $75,000 and though voters tend to skew high, that's a bit too high.

Isn't that essentially what the midterm electorate is supposed to look like?  Far less minorities and young people would be turning out in a midterm election than in a presidential election year.   And barring demographic turnover in the elderly population (currently skewed Republican due to the Silent Generation now dominating their ranks), Democrats have yet to crack that puzzle.   

[muon2]

This poll definitely skews quite a bit more Republican, Conservative and Wealthy than the national electorate. For example, the median income was close to $75,000 and though voters tend to skew high, that's a bit too high.

This was not a national poll. It was limited to districts that were identified as competitive. That excludes heavily urban Dem districts and rural Pub districts. Many of those left will be suburban districts, and they are wealthier than the nation as a whole.