Victorian State Election 27/11/2010

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Am I the only on who is reminded of Bush's infamous Horton ad with the Libs latest plug? Perhaps if Baillieu were running a conistent campaign, it could have been more effective. Then again ALP is just as bad. You know it's bad when they're resorting to recycled advertisements from 2006.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

We pulled 9.6% in the primary vote!

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Shock! Horror! Gasp! Sensationalist News Headline: Brumby Steps Down

It was the inevitable. Having lead the ALP to two defeats as leader - in 1996 and 2010, John Brumby has decided to stand down as leader of the Victorian Labor Party; though he remains tight lipped whether or not he'll quit politics entirely; as does Deputy Premier and Brumbyite Rob Hulls.

Nonetheless, this poses an interesting question for the direction of the Victorian ALP. Let the factional wars begin, I say!

As an expert on such matters (after all, I did predict Howard would win reelection in 2007 and John McCain would drop out after New Hampshire), the Right seems to be in a favourable position. Bill Shorten, Federal Member for Maribyrnong; as evidenced in June this year carries a lot of weight in the party - and judging from his increased media coverage since Saturday is working to install Water Minister Tim Holding as leader; the missing darling of the Right.

However, of all media reports I have seen - Health Minister Daniel Andrews of the Socialist Left is firming as favourite. His victory would be symbolic: the Left does have some influence; and would been seen as Labor reconnecting with its disillusioned, formerly working class, inner city base such as the seats of Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick who were benefactors of increased ALP influence. I mean, if Richard Wynne can call it a 'great victory', he must be right.

My prediction: Tim Holding/Jacinta Allen.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Andrews to Contest Leadership Ballot, Friday

Seems as though the ALP is opting for a bloodless takeover, but Andrews?

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Keeps their powder dry... means someone more talented won't be burnt by the series of bad polls that inevitably follow an electoral defeat.

Talented + Victorian ALP = syntax error

Seems as though the ALP is going on the logic of: if Andrews can withstand the pressure of being Health Minister; he can withstand the pressure of being Opposition Leader. Interesting though, that of all the potential candidates, for both leader and deputy position nobody over the age of 40, thus far indicated interest. Must really want to initiate generational change for once.

If they change him after a while for someone else, it means they think they can win the next election

Sounds like something you guys did back in '01, and look how that turned out

otherwise they might keep him there, let him take the fall for the 2014 election defeat and then install someone more charismatic ready for the following election.

But if the ALP is in a position to reclaim government in 2014; (I mean, the Coalition's victory on Saturday was by no means a 'landslide' - and the ALP's task of winning back government is no difficult feet) then surely they would have opted for the best candidate, to lead them back to government right now. Or they could hope for what happened with the Libs and Baillieu. Andrews is the only viable candidate; the ALP has nobody else and hopes for the best!