Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Georgia dem underperformance better have been because of the game yesterday

They did pretty well in November, idk what happened today

[Dr. Arch]

Georgia dem underperformance better have been because of the game yesterday

They did pretty well in November, idk what happened today

I mean, 7% turnout.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia dem underperformance better have been because of the game yesterday

Goodness that turnout was awful. Shameful that 4,000 measly votes decide the representative for more than 100,000 people.

I expected Ed Toney to have a little more traction than he did, and more turnout for Hatcher voters. Geesh!

[Adam Griffin]

HD-111 should fall in either 2018/2020: arguably, it should have fallen by now (there were low-single digit margins in both 2014 & 2016 IIRC).


Anyway, the problem with tonight's special elections is this area in general (SE Metro; Newton, Rockdale, Henry) suffers from a major demographic discrepancy. If y'all remember, SD 23 (I think?) was up in a special a couple of years ago and the Republican candidate managed to win by 2 points in a majority-black district that Obama carried by like 50 points.

Basically, among those 65 and older, this area is still overwhelmingly white. Under 65 is majority-black. Guess who shows up to vote in special elections? Compounding that, the black growth itself in this area is substantially younger than the median black age in GA; lots of 20-45 year-olds. So in essence, the demographics that make these areas competitive or even strongly Democratic in normal election cycles completely collapse in special elections because young people don't vote in special elections, and among the young people here, they're the backbone of the party's performance.

[QAnonKelly]

Why'd they have specials so soon after the holidays? Probably depressed turn out by people couldn't go canvas or whatever

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fulton County, which is notoriously slow to report results, is asking the state for permission to start counting early votes before the polls close in future elections: http://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/fulton-county-ask-state-count-early-votes-before-polls-close/ZkZJ2qvKfESophty4FpVmL/.

[QAnonKelly]

So David Perdue is working with Tom Cotton and Stephen Miller to slow down DACA talks ( the six leading senators have worked out a deal), why is this man such an idiot? He also cosponsored that terrible immigration bill with Cotton. It's one thing for Cotton to do it, he's from a very safe, white state. Why is Perdue doing this stuff though? GA is going to be majority minority by the time the census rolls around. He's up a presidential year where GA could very well vote D on the presidential level. Whoever he's running against (Sally Yates pls 🙏🙏🙏) is absolutely going to demolish him on this stuff.

[Rookie Yinzer]

After a lot of thinking and despite my previous criticisms, I have decided to rescind my support of Stacey Evans, and am now backing Stacey Abrams to become the Democratic nominee for Governor. Not that my endorsement will make or break either candidate just wanted to give some warning before you start seeing pro-Abrams posts from me.

[GeorgiaModerate]

After a lot of thinking and despite my previous criticisms, I have decided to rescind my support of Stacey Evans, and am now backing Stacey Abrams to become the Democratic nominee for Governor. Not that my endorsement will make or break either candidate just wanted to give some warning before you start seeing pro-Abrams posts from me.

What prompted your change of heart?

[scutosaurus]

After a lot of thinking and despite my previous criticisms, I have decided to rescind my support of Stacey Evans, and am now backing Stacey Abrams to become the Democratic nominee for Governor. Not that my endorsement will make or break either candidate just wanted to give some warning before you start seeing pro-Abrams posts from me.

Why did you change your endorsement? I'm curious to hear your reasoning.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I want to start by saying that there a lot of flaws that I acknowledge Abrams has, but what I can say is that she is committed to winning this race. I have mentioned in this thread that I was working with the Evans campaign. I have met her, her family, and have had conversations with her. There’s nothing that I can say about her personally or even on policy that is negative. However, her campaign is just uninspiring. I just have to be honest in that I feel like they are spending their time trying to rack up endorsements to legitimize her campaign and wrangle donors rather than reaching out to voters. Yes, she does meet and greets at local Democratic Party meetings, but there’s just been no progression, no substantial policy proposals, no concerted effort to reach out to voters directly before the primary season gets going. Like I said, she’s a fine woman and candidate but I had to question myself about exactly why I was working on this campaign.

Team Abrams has reached out to me personally as a voter, at least twice. If I wasn’t already inside the Evans campaign, I don’t think I would have even been contacted at this point. She is offering a different approach to winning statewide elections in Georgia, and while I have pointed out many things that may be less than flattering for her image like her tenuous relationship with her House caucus or public feuds with Brian Kemp and Michael Williams, I believe she has a team ready to mobilize and finally initiate the shift of Georgia from red to purple.

She has hired a political director who has two sons that are entrenched in the Latino media market in Atlanta, and are ready to dispatch hundreds of volunteers to register a record number of Latino voters, specifically in DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties. She has been reaching out physically to the rural blacks in South Georgia which make up nearly 35 percent of the population down there, that have NEVER been courted by either political party EVER. I see her having a massive ground game in Georgia’s population centers with huge margins coming out of the five major Metro Areas plus Athens. Her team is literally gearing up for the fight of their life, while Evans is raising money hoping to win the race by running television ads in black areas and still chasing after the mythical pragmatic rural white voter. It’s not happening. The only demographic I give Evans an edge with is white women, they are both going to get BTFO with white males, what Abrams has in her pocket is what I believe to be an unprecedented amount of civic participation by black Georgians.

I will staunchly support whoever the nominee is, but at this point I can not in good conscience put Stacey Evans up as the nominee.

[QAnonKelly]

I want to start by saying that there a lot of flaws that I acknowledge Abrams has, but what I can say is that she is committed to winning this race. I have mentioned in this thread that I was working with the Evans campaign. I have met her, her family, and have had conversations with her. There’s nothing that I can say about her personally or even on policy that is negative. However, her campaign is just uninspiring. I just have to be honest in that I feel like they are spending their time trying to rack up endorsements to legitimize her campaign and wrangle donors rather than reaching out to voters. Yes, she does meet and greets at local Democratic Party meetings, but there’s just been no progression, no substantial policy proposals, no concerted effort to reach out to voters directly before the primary season gets going. Like I said, she’s a fine woman and candidate but I had to question myself about exactly why I was working on this campaign.

Team Abrams has reached out to me personally as a voter, at least twice. If I wasn’t already inside the Evans campaign, I don’t think I would have even been contacted at this point. She is offering a different approach to winning statewide elections in Georgia, and while I have pointed out many things that may be less than flattering for her image like her tenuous relationship with her House caucus or public feuds with Brian Kemp and Michael Williams, I believe she has a team ready to mobilize and finally initiate the shift of Georgia from red to purple.

She has hired a political director who has two sons that are entrenched in the Latino media market in Atlanta, and are ready to dispatch hundreds of volunteers to register a record number of Latino voters, specifically in DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties. She has been reaching out physically to the rural blacks in South Georgia which make up nearly 35 percent of the population down there, that have NEVER been courted by either political party EVER. I see her having a massive ground game in Georgia’s population centers with huge margins coming out of the five major Metro Areas plus Athens. Her team is literally gearing up for the fight of their life, while Evans is raising money hoping to win the race by running television ads in black areas and still chasing after the mythical pragmatic rural white voter. It’s not happening. The only demographic I give Evans an edge with is white women, they are both going to get BTFO with white males, what Abrams has in her pocket is what I believe to be an unprecedented amount of civic participation by black Georgians.

I will staunchly support whoever the nominee is, but at this point I can not in good conscience put Stacey Evans up as the nominee.

That’s totally fair. I haven’t actually seen anything from either but I did notice Evans’s website is super bare the other day. Abrams’s has policy and merch and stuff. There’s still four months to go, we’ll see how it shakes out.

[Pollster]

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/368719-poll-trumps-approval-ratings-in-georgia-erode

A poll of the Dem primary and some early GE matchups would be incredibly helpful at this point.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I hope the Republican run-off ends up being Cagle and Williams. Cagle has been the primary target of Williams, who is trying so hard to come across as a baby Trump. Cagle posted photos of Williams in Alabama regalia before the game Monday, and Williams posted a video calling him “Campaign Casey” lol. Cagle is the definition of a “swamp creature” though. He’s been in the Lt. Governor’s office for 12 years, and now he is running to do what exactly? He’ll win the nomination because the “elites” want him to but I hope he comes out of the primary bruised and rural whites stay home.  

Kemp—� just drop out. No one cares.

[QAnonKelly]

I hope the Republican run-off ends up being Cagle and Williams. Cagle has been the primary target of Williams, who is trying so hard to come across as a baby Trump. Cagle posted photos of Williams in Alabama regalia before the game Monday, and Williams posted a video calling him “Campaign Casey” lol. Cagle is the definition of a “swamp creature” though. He’s been in the Lt. Governor’s office for 12 years, and now he is running to do what exactly? He’ll win the nomination because the “elites” want him to but I hope he comes out of the primary bruised and rural whites stay home.  

Kemp—� just drop out. No one cares.

I listened to a podcast with one of the top guys on Jones’s team the other day (It was Ezra Klein’s)  and he said how their strategy hinged on whoever the Republican was having to go to a run off and him not. No matter who won, they’d be damaged goods and he wouldn’t. Both the Stacey’s would be wise to adopt this strategy

[Cold War Liberal]

Abrams was on Full Frontal with Samantha Bee a few days ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52rdKGcSO5w

As someone who's following this race somewhat closely from out-of-state, it appears to me that Abrams is enthusiastic about the campaign, while Evans is about as enthusiastic as she looks in this photo (not very):

EDIT: Also I see RFKFan has come around to my thinking (we discussed this privately at one point) on Stacey v. Stacey :

I want to start by saying that there a lot of flaws that I acknowledge Abrams has, but what I can say is that she is committed to winning this race. I have mentioned in this thread that I was working with the Evans campaign. I have met her, her family, and have had conversations with her. There’s nothing that I can say about her personally or even on policy that is negative. However, her campaign is just uninspiring. I just have to be honest in that I feel like they are spending their time trying to rack up endorsements to legitimize her campaign and wrangle donors rather than reaching out to voters. Yes, she does meet and greets at local Democratic Party meetings, but there’s just been no progression, no substantial policy proposals, no concerted effort to reach out to voters directly before the primary season gets going. Like I said, she’s a fine woman and candidate but I had to question myself about exactly why I was working on this campaign.

Team Abrams has reached out to me personally as a voter, at least twice. If I wasn’t already inside the Evans campaign, I don’t think I would have even been contacted at this point. She is offering a different approach to winning statewide elections in Georgia, and while I have pointed out many things that may be less than flattering for her image like her tenuous relationship with her House caucus or public feuds with Brian Kemp and Michael Williams, I believe she has a team ready to mobilize and finally initiate the shift of Georgia from red to purple.

She has hired a political director who has two sons that are entrenched in the Latino media market in Atlanta, and are ready to dispatch hundreds of volunteers to register a record number of Latino voters, specifically in DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties. She has been reaching out physically to the rural blacks in South Georgia which make up nearly 35 percent of the population down there, that have NEVER been courted by either political party EVER. I see her having a massive ground game in Georgia’s population centers with huge margins coming out of the five major Metro Areas plus Athens. Her team is literally gearing up for the fight of their life, while Evans is raising money hoping to win the race by running television ads in black areas and still chasing after the mythical pragmatic rural white voter. It’s not happening. The only demographic I give Evans an edge with is white women, they are both going to get BTFO with white males, what Abrams has in her pocket is what I believe to be an unprecedented amount of civic participation by black Georgians.

I will staunchly support whoever the nominee is, but at this point I can not in good conscience put Stacey Evans up as the nominee.

[QAnonKelly]

Man whoever the D is in 2020 is gonna have a field day running against Perdue.

[libertpaulian]

Man whoever the D is in 2020 is gonna have a field day running against Perdue.

Carter, Reed, and Yates are all solid choices.

[scutosaurus]

Man whoever the D is in 2020 is gonna have a field day running against Perdue.

Perdue strikes me as such a weak incumbent. He has a long history of saying and doing things that are just attack ad bait. Combined with the strong Democratic bench in the state, I'm hoping that I can help vote in a Democratic Georgia Senator come 2020.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Man whoever the D is in 2020 is gonna have a field day running against Perdue.

Carter, Reed, and Yates are all solid choices.

Teresa Tomlinson, mayor of Columbus is going to run. I wonder how much of an uphill battle she would have with donors and low name ID against Carter or Yates. Reed is less establishment and prone to controversy.

Man whoever the D is in 2020 is gonna have a field day running against Perdue.

Perdue strikes me as such a weak incumbent. He has a long history of saying and doing things that are just attack ad bait. Combined with the strong Democratic bench in the state, I'm hoping that I can help vote in a Democratic Georgia Senator come 2020.

I can't help but remember him saying something to the effect that Obama's days were numbered and his children would be vagabonds. He tried and failed to clean that up obviously. He's a real jerk and a Trump stooge.

[QAnonKelly]

Man whoever the D is in 2020 is gonna have a field day running against Perdue.

Carter, Reed, and Yates are all solid choices.

Teresa Tomlinson, mayor of Columbus is going to run. I wonder how much of an uphill battle she would have with donors and low name ID against Carter or Yates. Reed is less establishment and prone to controversy.

Man whoever the D is in 2020 is gonna have a field day running against Perdue.

Perdue strikes me as such a weak incumbent. He has a long history of saying and doing things that are just attack ad bait. Combined with the strong Democratic bench in the state, I'm hoping that I can help vote in a Democratic Georgia Senator come 2020.

I can't help but remember him saying something to the effect that Obama's days were numbered and his children would be vagabonds. He tried and failed to clean that up obviously. He's a real jerk and a Trump stooge.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/06/david-perdue-obama/486587/

He went to some “values voter” conference and basically prayed for Obama to die. He’s reverse triangulating so bad with Trump. Cotton can tie himself to Trump and lie for him in the name of being racist. He’s from a Solid R , very white state. Perdue being so hardline anti immigration and so tied to Trump is just moronic. GA could very well be majority minority by the time he’s up again in a presidential year. The D could very well carry GA on the presidential level that year too. They can for sure energize the large swaths of poc in GA to vote against both Perdue and Trump (if he’s on the ticket). He can’t ride the 2014 wave coattails this time. They will attack him and attack him for being so racist and being so far up Trump’s butt and it could work. He’s playing with fire here and he could lose and I hope he does. He’s a horrible human being. I don’t agree with Isakson on a lot of stuff but he’s a good man and he came out hard against Trump with the sh**thole comments.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Perdue always been vulnerable he's no Isakson. Last time this seat was up during 2008 it went to a run off against a complete nobody. Georgia has change a lot in 12 years and if Democrats put up a credible challenger I go as far to say he will lose. After Gardner and Tillis he is 3rd most vulnerable Republican in 2020.

[QAnonKelly]

Perdue always been vulnerable he's no Isakson. Last time this seat was up during 2008 it went to a run off against a complete nobody. Georgia has change a lot in 12 years and if Democrats put up a credible challenger I go as far to say he will lose. After Gardner and Tillis he is 3rd most vulnerable Republican in 2020.

It probably comes down to who’s on the top of the ticket on 2020 for both parties. I think it’s too late for Trump/ Pence to win GA unless the D nominee is terrible. Another R  can probably hold it for one more cycle. Should the DNC or whoever play their cards right , they can probably take out Perdue given the environment and the amount of rising D stars in GA

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams announced a new campaign office in Savannah at the end of the month, with more offices planned to open in Cobb County, Rome, Sumter County, Hinesville, Stockbridge, Augusta, Columbus, and Albany.

She needs an office in Macon and Athens!

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics-blog/georgia-2018-abrams-kicks-her-ground-game/1EpNI8EgxAgBa8Im5pnGUM/

[KingSweden]

Abrams announced a new campaign office in Savannah at the end of the month, with more offices planned to open in Cobb County, Rome, Sumter County, Hinesville, Stockbridge, Augusta, Columbus, and Albany.

She needs an office in Macon and Athens!

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics-blog/georgia-2018-abrams-kicks-her-ground-game/1EpNI8EgxAgBa8Im5pnGUM/

I gotta say she has an impressive apparatus